Tuesday - Thursday Winter Storm

[Pfishingruven]

The NWS has been talking about this system for 3 days now. However, the talk has been mostly about unknowns. An area of low pressure is expected to track from the Gulf Coast States to the Great Lakes. This low should stay to the west of the state, but will still bring heavy rains, some wintry precipitation, potential icing, and minor coastal flooding from some slightly higher tides. This will occur between Tuesday Night and Thursday, with coastal flooding being the worst on Wednesday and Thursday. Snow accumulations will be minimal, as will ice accretion, however, it will still make a mess. Tides are running about a foot over Mean Higher High Water (High Tide) and below High Astronomical Tide (HAT), so at this point flooding will be only minor at worst. Of course, a change in track could change this forecast and flooding could become a bigger problem. At this point, this system will not be a big deal, but the potential is there, so be aware and monitoring any changes into Tuesday Night and knowing that it could bring additional rain, snow, and coastal flooding is important. With 1-2 inches of rain possible, watching the potential for inland flooding as well.

Updates as necessary...following this, I will be working on the Full Outlook. Also, my cell phone is broken and I am waiting a replacement . I only have phone and texting right now. Email is not coming to my phone right now.

NWS PHI Briefing

Storm Track



Snowfall Totals



Ice Totals



Max Snow

[Pfishingruven]

There is no change in this forecast right now. The storm should stay to the west bringing mainly rain, possibly some mixed wintry precipitation at night, changing over to snow for northern/northwestern areas where some light accumulation may occur. Icing is also possible for northern/northwestern areas. Precipitation is possible Tuesday through Thursday, upwards of 2 inches with locally higher amounts. Many of the areas will have temperatures well above freezing, so the chances for anything besides rain is very low. Winds will increase beginning on Tuesday with cautious to hazardous water conditions and Small Craft Advisories to Gale Warnings. There may be minor coastal flooding, with the greatest threats for Wednesday and Thursday. While most of the state will be in a lifting warm front and in the warm sector of this storm, severe weather is possible on Wednesday with heavy rains, dangerous lightning, damaging winds, hail, and even tornadoes. This forecast is very dependent on the track staying west of the area. Any eastward movement of the track will bring greater precipitation, snow chances, and coastal flooding.

I will update any major changes tomorrow. Mainly watching for a shift in track, increased snowfall potential, increased coastal flooding changes, and the severe weather threat for Wednesday.

NWS PHI Briefing

Wednesday Severe Weather Threats