Nor'Easter/Coastal Winter Storm Thursday Night-Friday

[Pfishingruven]

What looked like it was going to be a miss, is now becoming a problem. A sizable, moderately strong coastal low will develop to the south and move northeast up along the coast. This storm will bring snow across the state, very high winds, high seas, high surf, beach erosion and possibly some minor coastal flooding. This was looking like a snow shower event, originally, but that has now changed to more of an accumulation event. Like always, track and intensity will dictate how much of an event the states sees. Right now, the southern half of the state will see 2-4 inches with 1-2 inches for the northern half of the state. Winds will gust 20-40 mph across the state with coastal areas seeing 50+ mph. Seas will push 10 feet inshore. At minimum, Gale Warnings will be posted and high wind advisories, however Storm Warnings for marine waters and High Wind Warnings are very possible. Any flooding, appears to be on Saturday Morning.

I expect this forecast to change, depending on the models and tracks over the next 24-36 hours. Updates as necessary. Clearly, Winter is not over!!

NWS PHI Briefing

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Snowfall Totals

[BigAl13]

you had to know one more was coming lets get through this one and start fishing 

[fluke - u]

  .... Thanks for the good news Matt, I was not ready to fish yet ...

[Salty Dog]

Thanks Matt .Can always re-spool my reels .Trailer and boat can wait

[Pfishingruven]

you had to know one more was coming lets get through this one and start fishing 

There's always that "one more!"

.... Thanks for the good news Matt, I was not ready to fish yet ...

YW, me either !

Thanks Matt .Can always re-spool my reels .Trailer and boat can wait

That's good because I see potentially warmer weather next week? Have to see...

[Pfishingruven]

So, not much of a change over the last 24 hours or so. What was going to be a complete miss, looks to be just a glancing blow right now. What I will caution is that the difference of 50-100 miles will completely change what we are talking about. These coastal/Nor'Easter/Winter storms are tough to pin down and this setup is no different.

A low pressure system coming out of the South will exit the East Coast into the Atlantic and begin intensifying while moving east-northeast. Right now, intensity remains moderate and the track stays south and east, keeping the bulk of the storm over the Atlantic and out at sea. A shift of 50-100 miles to the north or west, could bring more of the storm over land and increase effects. A stronger storm or rapidly intensifying storm, could also bring greater effects across the region.

Right now, as the forecast stands, the Winter Storm will begin late Thursday Night and continue through Friday Morning/Afternoon. Snow and winds will be the main highlights, but high seas, rough surf, minor beach erosion, and even minor flooding are possible. Most areas will only see 1-2 inches of accumulating snow with some areas seeing 2-3 inches with 3-6 worst case scenario for this forecast. A change in track or intensity could bring much more or nothing at all. Also, ground temperatures, which are above freezing, and an increase in sun (at a higher angle in the sky) could dictate how much accumulation occurs. Most accumulations will be mainly on grass and such, but all surfaces will be a wintry mess and will affect morning commutes. Winds will be an issue also, however, not as high as yesterday, with winds 20-40 mph. Coastal areas will see higher winds and offshore waters could see winds in excess of 50 mph. High seas to 10 feet inshore and 20 feet offshore are likely as well as rough surf and minor beach erosion. Coastal flooding does not appear to be an issue, still, minor flooding is possible. ...And, again, if this storm comes more inland, flooding could become a bigger threat! Tidal guidance suggests tides about 1 foot above Mean Higher High Water (High Tide). This could definitely bring some minor flooding to flood prone areas. Luckily, tides are generally running lower than normal right now.

Otherwise, this should be a minor event with the potential for a much bigger event that will need to be watched closely throughout the night. Be aware of changing conditions and have a way of receiving weather alerts. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the Southern Half of the state from Mercer County east to Ocean County and all counties south from there. Gale Warnings, Storm Warnings, and Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all marine waters.

Be safe....updates as needed for any major changes, otherwise, hopefully this is the last snow coverage for the year?

NWS PHI Briefing #2

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Snowfall Forecast Totals

[fluke - u]

  ... Thanks for the update Matt ...

[BigAl13]

Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow