NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekend Edition: May 14-15, 2016

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Another unsettled weekend with rain and thunderstorm chances and mostly cautious to even hazardous water conditions. Saturday will have increasing clouds with scattered showers becoming more widely scattered to widespread in the afternoon and continuing overnight. Some of these showers could be accompanied by thunderstorms and some of these storms could be severe. Thunderstorms will be capable on heavy rains, dangerous lightning, and damaging winds. Hail and tornadoes do not look like a threat right now, but Saturday will reveal the best picture. Sunday will be mostly dry, although lingering showers and a scattered shower are possible, mainly across northern areas. Saturday will be the warmest with low to mid 70’s inland and mid to upper 60’s at the shore. Saturday Night will have lows in the 40’s. By Sunday, the cold front will have passed dropping temperatures by 10 degrees or so inland. Upper 50’s to low 60’s will be highs with upper 30’s to low 40’s for lows. Water conditions will start off with calm winds and seas, but by mid-morning and afternoon, conditions will deteriorate with winds to 20+ knots and seas quickly growing to 3-4 feet inshore. Winds will be mainly out of the west. For Sunday, winds will increase to 30 knots with seas to 5 feet inshore and 8+ feet offshore. Conditions will be cautious to hazardous with Small Craft Advisories. Be cautious of the quickly changing conditions on Saturday. Even rivers and bays will experience the gustier winds. Winds and seas will be independent of any thunderstorms. Winds and seas around thunderstorms could be significantly higher than forecast conditions and could prompt Special Marine Warnings! Surf and beach conditions will be ok for surf heights with the west winds keeping down the bulk of the seas. However, winds will still gust 20+ knots on Saturday and to 30 knots on Sunday. Surf heights will be in the 3-5 foot range, then 2-4 feet on Sunday. However, 1-3 feet could really be the norm. Thunderstorms on Saturday could move in or pop up quickly. Be aware of changing weather conditions and don’t get caught on the water in a thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you can be struck by lightning. Recreational Fishing and beach/water activities have the highest rate of lightning fatalities, with men and young men leading those statistics. Don’t become a statistic this season!! Water temperatures have increased into the 50’s with some rivers and bays into the 60’s during the day. UV Index will be Moderate to Very High at 3-8/15.

A warm front will approach the region from the south tonight. A cold or occluded front will track across the region, from west to east, Friday afternoon. Another cold front will cross the area late on Saturday. An area of low pressure will strengthen across New England over the weekend and move into southeast Canada by Sunday. A third cold front will approach the region from the north on Monday. High pressure is forecast to return to the area on.
Tuesday. A warm front will lift north through the region on Wednesday. A fourth cold front will track through the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday.

The unsettled weather continues for the week with rain chances starting on Tuesday Night and continuing for the week. Monday and Tuesday will be mostly dry. The rain chances for the week will be lower right now, under 50%, with scattered showers. High temperatures will be in the 60’s increasing into the 70’s by the end of the week. Overnight lows will be in the 40’s and 50’s. Water, surf and beach conditions will be cautious to hazardous on Monday, high seas early on Tuesday causing cautious conditions, then borderline to good through Wednesday. Thursday and Friday could see increased winds and seas causing cautious conditions.

Have a great weekend and thanks for reading!

Saturday
Sky:  Increasing clouds becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  20%60% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day, 60%30% chance of showers and thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:     Low to mid 70’s inland, mid to upper 60’s at the shore
Low:     Mid 40’s inland, upper 40’s at the shore, low 40’s northern areas
UV Index:  4-8/15 (Moderate – Very High)
Sunrise: 5:42am
Sunset: 8:03pm


Sunday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear, Breezy
Precipitation:  0%-20% chance of shower during the day (mainly northern areas)
Temperatures
High:     Upper 50’s to low 60’s
Low:     Upper 30’s to low 40’s
UV Index:  3-6/15 (Moderate – High)
Sunrise: 5:41am
Sunset: 8:04pm


Friday Night Surface Analysis



Saturday Surface Analysis



Sunday Surface Analysis



Precipitation Totals



Saturday’s Thunderstorms & Severe Weather




Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  59°F
Saturday
CAUTIOUS
Winds:  W 5-10 knots becoming SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less, then 1-2 feet in the afternoon
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Saturday Night
Winds:  W 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Sunday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  W 10-15 knots increasing to 15-20 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Sunday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  W 15-20 knots diminishing to 10-15 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides

Sandy Hook Tides




Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  59°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: WSW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: S 12 to 17 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 21 to 28 knots
Seas:  W 4 feet at 4 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Sunday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 22 to 30 knots
Seas:  W 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 Feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  53°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: WSW 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 19 to 26 knots
Seas:  WNW 3 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Sunday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 19 to 26 knots
Seas:  W 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay at Island Beach State Park
Water Temperature:  55°F-62°F
Saturdayg7
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  WSW 6-9 knots becoming SSW 11-14 knots in the afternoon with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Saturday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  WSW 9-12 knots becoming WNW 12-15 knots after midnight with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Sunday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  W 15-19 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Sunday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  W 13-16 knots with gust to 25 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides
   
Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  55°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: WNW 2 to 3 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  WNW 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Sunday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 18 to 25 knots
Seas:  WNW 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides

Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  61°F
Saturday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  W 5 knots increasing to 5-10 knots late in the morning, then SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Saturday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  W 10-15 knots becoming NW 15-20 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  W 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-4 feet
Sunday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  W 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware Bay Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  51°F
Saturday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 7 seconds
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 20 to 26 knots
Seas:  WNW 5 feet at 5 seconds
Sunday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 21 to 28 knots
Seas:  W 6 feet at 6 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

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  .... Thanks Matt  ....