Okay here is the latest poop from the NHC.
Hurricane Irene will come close to us but will not make a direct hit. If you look at the percentage maps you will see that the hurricane force winds will most likely not hit us. Thee is a slight possibility that 50Knt will pound is as well. What is most likely is the Tropical Storm Force winds around 39 MPH. But the storm surge has to be watched very closely as many with boats might want to secure them as best you can.
Here are the latest maps, but like I mentioned look at them carefully and you will see the percentages.
Things could change but as Irene gets into cooler waters she will begin to weaken and the threat becomes less and less. Read the reports as well and I will post the latest ones as I get them.
Here is the latest report for now...
000
WTNT34 KNHC 251156
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
...IRENE POUNDING THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 76.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 670 MI...1085 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA
BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH BY EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY...AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES...410 KM. THE
OFFICIAL REPORTING SITE IN NASSAU RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
TO 62 MPH...100 KM/H. AN UNOFFICIAL REPORTING STATION ON NASSAU
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 100 MPH...161 KM/H.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA AND AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
AN AUTOMATED OBSERVING SITE AT ROCK SOUND ON THE SOUTHERN END OF
ELEUTHERA ISLAND REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 952.4 MB AS THE
CENTER PASSED NEARBY A FEW HOURS AGO.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY.
STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE BAHAMAS.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES OVER THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. RAINS WILL
BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...BRINGING THE MAXIMUM
STORM TOTAL TO 6 TO 12 INCHES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
