Keep This in the Back of Your Mind

[Pfishingruven]

I wasn't going to post anything yet, but I noticed some other weather agencies already speculating and talking about this!

Tropical weather is STILL a possibility 8-10 days from now.  The important thing to remember right now, is that there isn't any storm or system even present yet!  However, the models are all in agreement of some type of system(tropical, subtropical, extratropical, noreaster, Low Depression) forming south of Florida and moving north into the northeast.  Where specifically, how strong or even what are up in the air right now?

The reason, I feel it necessary to post something is because of the VERY HIGH potential of flooding IF a system makes it's way up here to the Tri-State Area.  For areas still saturated, rivers and lakes that are already high and close to flood stage, even 3 inches of rain can cause a problem, yet alone 6-12 inches of rain that comes with these type of weather systems!

So, I will update you as necessary on any developments.  If anyone has any questions or would like more specifics, please feel free to ask.

NO NEED TO WORRY yet, but certainly something to keep in mind, just in case!

 

[SurfJockey]

Thanks for the heads-up Matt! 

[Offshore Madness]

I hope i dont have to say "here we go again!"

[PeggyLee]

 

[Bucktail]

P-man,

Did I ever tell you I HATE YOU?!

J/K buddy!    Keep on posting those miserable weather reports. 

 

[Pfishingruven]

P-man,

Did I ever tell you I HATE YOU?!

J/K buddy!    Keep on posting those miserable weather reports. 

 

Hey don't shoot the messenger .

 

[Scott G.]

     Thanks For The Info.   

[Pfishingruven]

Here's the rain I was talking about that could very well move into the northeast.  Seeing some tropical formation over Hispaniola, but nothing is there yet.  This is at least 7-10 days out.

I'll keep you updated...

 

[Hotrod]

Matt has taken the NJSWF Weatherman Spot

Keep it up Matt

[Pfishingruven]

Matt has taken the NJSWF Weatherman Spot

Keep it up Matt

 

[Pfishingruven]

Saturday 10/08/2011 Update

OK, what I hinted at several days ago, is all panning out, UNFORTUNATELY !  All forecasts are pointing towards rain 5-7 days out.  This system is in the process of forming off the east coast of Florida.  Florida is getting a decent amount of rain and moderate winds.  This may not be tropical, not even subtropical, extratropical or even a hybrid, but this anticipated LOW Pressure System is going to bring rain and they are anticipating a large amount.  I am seeing 3-6 inches in excess of 8+ inches for the area.  It is still a bit too far out to accurately predict so as the weather develops, I will let you know.  However, at the heart of this storm, 11+ inches are going to fall(mostly back into the ocean) down in Florida.  I also anticipate some flood watches and warnings for this area later on in the week, so if you flood normally be ready and prepared!

I am attaching a NWS Hydrological Prediction Center Rainfall Forecast for Thurs 10/13, which will only be the beginning and already they have the entire general area in 1+ inches of rain!

Here is an article by AccuWeather's Dan Kottlowski.  He is based out of their HQ's in State College, PA.  Nice guy, knows his stuff and puts out real, stand up weather forecasts so...

ACCUWEATHER.COM Forecast

 

[Pfishingruven]

Sunday 10/09/2011 Update

There is finally a system.  The National Hurricane Center is not naming or classifying it, but there is a surface Low Pressure System that has developed.  It looks to be tropical or subtropical in nature...even a hybrid.  This would be equal to a good Nor' Easter we would get here, just a lot farther south and earlier in the season.  The system is sitting off the coast of Melbourne, FL.  There is a pretty well defined center of circulation and heavy thunderstorms and rain.  Stronger winds are in the central part if the storm.  Recent wind and pressure data from a buoy are showing 50-60mph winds with stronger gusts.  Higher levels winds are showing up over 80mph.  Central pressure is down around 1000mb.  All indicative of a strong storm.

The models are bringing this storm to the area around Wednesday into Thursday.  This could bring significant winds and rain if it stays out in the water or rides along the coast.  If it goes inland a little more the winds will be less.  Either way, we are looking at 2-3 inches, possibly more.  This doesn't sound like a lot, but even this small amount could cause flooding.

So far in Florida, this storm has brought lots of rain...6+ inches in some locations, localized flooding, lots of coastal flooding, high winds, high surf and significant beach eroding,  Tomorrow they are calling for 17-23 foot waves along the coast!

As the storm pans out, I will keep you updated and if and/or when the threat becomes more immediate, I will move this to it's own thread.

 

[Pfishingruven]

Monday 10/10/2011 Update:

All GOOD NEWS...

Looks like we are going to skate by with this system.  The Low Pressure system that started off the Florida Coast went inland much farther south than was forecasted.  This will ultimately take it much more west of the Tri State area and leave us with less rain.  Still up to 3 inches and possibly more locally, but it will be spread out over Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and into Friday.  This means no flash flooding or excessive rainfall amounts for the area.

If anything changes, I will keep you updated, but I don't foresee this changing drastically at all!

**Image is of the 5 Day Total Precipitation

[Offshore Madness]

 

[Pfishingruven]

I forgot to address the members in Pennsylvania.  There is a possibility of 1-4 inches for some flood areas of PA.  It looks to be more central PA, but the increased risk is there for all of PA.  Make sure you keep an eye and ear to the weather if you are in a flood area.