Here We Go Again! Week of 10/16/2011 Nor' Easter?

[Pfishingruven]

I smell a Nor' Easter!  Actually, I see a Nor' Easter and there is a lot of model agreement!  Yup, already...

There is not anything yet, but I am seeing that there will be a decent to strong Low Pressure System off the Coast sometime between Tuesday and Thursday, with the worst coming Wednesday.  This could bring heavy rains, strong winds, high surf, flooding(all kinds), beach erosion and of course Marine Warnings!  There is also a chance of severe weather(thunderstorms/tornadoes) depending on the temperatures.  The severe weather is not a norm, but neither is a Nor' Easter this early with such high dewpoints/temperatures.  Inland PA, the Ohio Valley New England and higher altitudes could even see snow from this!

I will keep you updated as it develops!

Attaching the GFS Model and Euro Model that both agree that something is going to happen.

 

[Offshore Madness]

 

[SurfJockey]

 

[Offshore Madness]

Will it ever end

[Pfishingruven]

Since I am not a Meteorologist...just thought I would add some validation to my posts!

This is a statement from Mark of HurricaneTrack.com.  He is a private meteorologist who owns and operates this website.  He sums it up really well!

Always a fine line between being too strong with statements and making sure people are aware of dangerous weather. The 12Z GFS paints a very nasty picture for Florida, the Southeast and eventually New England as a powerful late-season tropical system appears to merge with a massive upper level trough resulting in a considerable Nor'easter for New England. Surface pressures look to get to about 985 mb as the storm rides up the Mid-Atlantic. Pay attention to this situation as it looks to affect millions of people from Florida to Maine!

Denis Phillips, Chief Meteorologist from WFTS ABC Action News in Tampa, Fl is also calling this for the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.  Here is a link to his webcast, which can be watched at 7PM daily at this link

ABC Action News Weather Webcast

Sunday 10/16/2011 Webcast

[Scott G.]

 

[Hotrod]

Bob said " Pman better start posting some good weather, or I'm going to Ban Him" 

 

[Bucktail]

 

 

[Njoffshore Sheck]

 
Will it ever end,I just canceled a trip cause of this... I hope next weekend works out 

[Hotrod]

"Per Rugman Rule 46738  You are only aloud to use a max a 3 head bangers at one time..

[Pfishingruven]

Sunday 10/16/2011 Update:

This storm is partly if not mostly coming out of a LOW Pressure disturbance in the Caribbean off of the Yucatan Peninsula.  This is just beginning to develop down there.  It is only being forecasted at most a Tropical Storm(or possibly subtropical, extratropical or even hybrid system) to hit Florida and it will move off quickly with this deep trough(cold front) and travel up the coast.  So this could come up even as a decent to strong tropical system, although, I expect an extra tropical system(Nor' Easter) to hit us(only difference between any of the systems is warm core or cold core or a mix of both.  Being one or the other doesn't make it any better or worse).  I can't get accurate rainfall amounts, mainly because there isn't a system yet to develop.  However, if the circulation remains off the coast, rainfall amounts could be high 6-10+ inches because of the rotation bringing the moisture on land or as little as 1-3 inches.  Either way, we are in for some wind and rain, at the least!

I will keep you updated as it develops.  Ohhhh and for those asking when will this end...not anytime soon.  This is a La Nina winter.  Not as bad as last winter's La Nina, but system after system will bring rain and/or snow most of the fall and winter months, through at least January and letting up in February .

 

[Pfishingruven]

Bob said " Pman better start posting some good weather, or I'm going to Ban Him" 

 

 

Hey, nice weather is easy to forecast!  You look out the window and see sunshine then it is nice.  If you want nice weather...after this system moves out we should have nice, but cooler/colder weather for several days!

 

[Offshore Madness]

cooler/colder is BETTER

[Pfishingruven]

We might skate on the worst of this storm again...or if the storm takes the right path, get a significant Nor' Easter.  Some models are taking this Low Pressure(never developed into anything more) into the Upper Midwest, leaving us with some minor rain tomorrow into Thursday.  Some are bringing it into the coast?  As it moves more, I will let you know.  Wish they could pin down this forecast.

I think we have much lower chances of it turning into a Nor' Easter at this point.

This should make BT happy !

[Pfishingruven]

Looks like this storm is going to split the Mid Atlantic/Northeast/New England and go off into the upper Midwest and Ohio Valley and the other part go off into the ocean.

Some showers over the next couple of days, possibly heavy at times, maybe 1-3 inches of rain, some wind and possibly minor coastal flooding and then cooler/cold, but dry and mostly sunny with some high pressure moving in. Definitely not the storm is was panning out to be 5 days ago...and thankful for that!

There is still a possibility for some high surf and waves inshore and certainly offshore!

 

[Offshore Madness]

Lets Go Fishing

[Bucktail]

We might skate on the worst of this storm again...

I think we have much lower chances of it turning into a Nor' Easter at this point.

This should make BT happy !

Winds from the east at 25 kts and 5-8 seas for tomorrow does not make me happy.

But thanks for trying to cheer me up.

 

[Pfishingruven]

Better than the 50 knots with 25-30 foot seas I was seeing just this morning !

We can't catch a break, let alone any fish .