NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition July 16-20, 2012

[Pfishingruven]

Here we come to another week already.  The summer is flying by.  This week is going to start off as a scorcher, with hot and humid temperatures as the Bermuda High brings us Bermuda like temperatures.  By Wednesday with the approaching cold front, the area will see widespread rain and/or strong (even severe) thunderstorms most of the day into the evening.  Unfortunately, even temperatures along the immediate coast and on the water, may not see much relief through Wednesday, except for a couple of degrees and maybe occasionally a lucky sea breeze.  However, by Thursday and even through the weekend, there will be some relief from the north as Canadian High Pressure builds in bringing cooler to seasonal temperatures and lower humidity.  Water conditions are rated good for all inshore waters all week, while midshore to offshore has some cautious conditions Wednesday Afternoon and all day Thursday.

The Bermuda High Pressure is anchored off the Mid Atlantic Coast and will be the dominant weather pattern through the middle of this week.  A weak cold front will dissipate as it crosses the area late Monday.  A stronger cold front will cross the region from the north late Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Night, exiting to the south of the area Thursday morning.  By the end of the week, Canadian High Pressure will move into New England and bring cooler and less humid conditions into the end of the week and into the weekend.

Monday
Sky:  Mostly Sunny & clear
Precipitation:  Slight chance
Temperatures
High:  Low to mid 90’s (humid, with heat indices into upper 90’s low 100’s)
Low:  Low 70’s
Sunrise: 5:41am
Sunset: 8:24pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-7/10
Weather2Hunt.com-37/50

Tuesday-
Sky:  Sunny turning to partly cloudy
Precipitation:  Slight Chance
Temperatures
High:  Upper 90’s (high humidity, heat indices into low/mid 100’s)
Low:  Mid 70’s
Sunrise: 5:42am
Sunset: 8:23pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-8/10
Weather2Hunt.com-37/50

Wednesday-
Sky:  Mostly sunny turning mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  60% chance of showers/thunderstorms
Temperatures
High:  Upper 90’s (higher humidity with higher heat indices until cold front moves in)
Low:  Upper 60’s
Sunrise: 5:43am
Sunset: 8:22pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-9/10
Weather2Hunt.com-37/50

Thursday
Sky:  Partly sunny turning partly cloudy
Precipitation:  30% showers/thunderstorms
Temperatures
High:  Mid to upper 80’s (lower humidity)
Low:  Upper 60’s
Sunrise: 5:43am
Sunset: 8:22pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-8/10
Weather2Hunt.com-47/50

Friday-
Sky:  Partly cloudy turning mostly sunny
Precipitation:  None to slight chance
Temperatures
High:  Mid 80’s
Low:  Mid 60’s
Sunrise: 5:44am
Sunset: 8:21pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-6/10
Weather2Hunt.com-47/50

Monday Surface Analysis



Wenesday Night into Thursday Surface Analysis



Thursday/Friday Surface Analysis



Total Accumulation of Rain from Sunday – Friday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  79F
Monday Morning
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Monday  Afternoon
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Tuesday Morning
Wind:  W 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Wednesday Morning
Wind:  W 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Wed Afternoon
Wind:  N 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Thursday Morning
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Thursday Afternoon
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Friday Morning
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Friday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)
                              


Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  76F
Monday Morning
Winds: W 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 10 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: W 6 to 8 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 10 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NW 5 to 7 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 5 to 7 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: W 8 to 10 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 10 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 7 to 9 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: NE 13 to 17 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 6 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: NE 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ENE 3 feet at 5 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: ENE 6 to 9 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 7 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: E 7 to 10 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 7 sec.

Manasquan Inlet Tides



Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  78F
Monday Morning
Winds: W 10 to 14 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 9 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 8 to 11 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 10 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WNW 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 9 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: W 7 to 9 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WSW 10 to 14 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 10 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 7 to 10 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 6 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: NNE 9 to 12 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 6 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: NE 12 to 16 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 7 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: ENE 13 to 18 knots
Seas: ENE 4 feet at 4 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: E 9 to 12 knots
Seas: E 3 feet at 5 sec.

Cape May (Ocean) Tides



Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  81F
Monday Morning
Wind:  W 10 knots
Seas:  2-3  feet  
Monday  Afternoon
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Wed Afternoon
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Wind: NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Friday Morning
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides



Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Monday Morning
Winds: W 13 to 18 knots
Seas: ESE 5 feet at 10 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: W 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 10 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NW 8 to 11 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 10 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 7 to 9 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 10 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas: SSW 5 feet at 6 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 9 to 12 knots
Seas: SSW 4 feet at 6 sec.
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NE 15 to 20 knots
Seas: S 4 feet at 7 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NE 14 to 19 knots
Seas: S 5 feet at 7 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: E 10 to 13 knots
Seas: S 4 feet at 7 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 9 to 13 knots
Seas: S 4 feet at 7 sec.



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather…The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

Excessive Heat Warning for Gloucester, Camden, Mercer & parts of Burliington County.

Excessive Heat Advisory for Warren, Hunterdon, Somerset, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean & Burlington Counties

Excessive Heat Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL WORSEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUMP HOT
AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOST
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL UP INTO THE 90S...AFTER MORNING LOWS OF 75 TO 80. THE
HEAT INDEX VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE 100 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE FOR FEW HOURS.

A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

DEZ001-NJZ015-017>019-PAZ067>071-162100-
/O.CON.KPHI.EH.W.0005.120717T1700Z-120719T0100Z/
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...TRENTON...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
335 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO
9 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* HEAT INDEX VALUES....CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
  UP TO 105 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE URBAN
  CORRIDOR TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN PHILADELPHIA SHOULD
  ONLY BE NEAR 80 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...THE CUMULATIVE IMPACTS OF THE HEAT ARE A DANGER
  ESPECIALLY FOR THE ELDERLY...INFIRM...THE VERY YOUNG...AND THOSE
  IN INNER CITY AREAS THAT DO NOT HAVE AIR CONDITIONING. PETS ALSO
  ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE HEAT. CARS WITH WINDOWS ROLLED UP AND NO
  AIR CONDITIONING...HEAT UP EXCEEDINGLY FAST. CHECK TO MAKE SURE
  NO ONE IS LOCKED IN AN NON AIR CONDITIONED VEHICLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION
IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE LIKELY. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY
IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP
ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITY TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE
IS AN EMERGENCY - CALL 9 1 1.

&&

$$

Heat Advisory
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL WORSEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUMP HOT
AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOST
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL UP INTO THE 90S...AFTER MORNING LOWS OF 75 TO 80. THE
HEAT INDEX VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE 100 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE FOR FEW HOURS.

A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

NJZ007-009-010-012-013-020-027-PAZ060>062-162100-
/O.NEW.KPHI.HT.Y.0008.120717T1700Z-120718T0000Z/
WARREN-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...JACKSON...WHARTON STATE FOREST...
READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
335 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...UP TO 101 TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
  TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
  TO UPPER 60S.

* IMPACTS...THE CUMULATIVE IMPACTS OF THE HEAT ARE A DANGER
  ESPECIALLY FOR THE ELDERLY...INFIRM...THE VERY YOUNG...AND THOSE
  IN INNER CITY AREAS THAT DO NOT HAVE AIR CONDITIONING. PETS ALSO
  ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE HEAT. CARS WITH WINDOWS ROLLED UP AND NO
  AIR CONDITIONING...HEAT UP EXCEEDINGLY FAST. CHECK TO MAKE SURE
  NO ONE IS LOCKED IN AN NON AIR CONDITIONED VEHICLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE
POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED
ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND
NEIGHBORS.

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITY TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE
IS AN EMERGENCY - CALL 9 1 1.

&&

$$

[Pfishingruven]

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk of Severe Weather for almost the entire state of NJ as well as an area from New England out to Indiana and south to Maryland (see map) for Wednesday.  Almost all of NJ, except extreme southern Cape May County, has been placed in a 15% Risk Area, while parts of central and northern NJ have been given a 30% Risk Area.  The main threat tomorrow will be from multicellular thunderstorms (squall lines of storms) with high gusty winds and occasional hail.  However, bows (high straight line winds/derechos) and supercell storms are possible.

Keep an ear out to the weather tomorrow for further updates.

[Hotrod]

 

[fellinger]

Blah, this week is just gonna suck for me. By the reports it looks like Friday mid-shore for BFT for me isn't going to cut it.

[paul-e]

I'll tell ya's da weather.

It's freakin HOT.

Seriously. Great job Matt

[Scott G.]

 

[Pfishingruven]

Thanks guys !

Update to Friday Water Conditions looks like inshore and midshore to offshore will be cautious and even hazardous for some areas.  Small Craft Advisories will likely be posted with seas 6-8 feet at 7 seconds with winds 15-20 knots with gust over 25 knots at times.  This will continue into most of Saturday before the winds die down and seas recover!

[Pfishingruven]

Small Craft Advisory
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
304 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

ANZ450-451-201000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0072.120719T1904Z-120721T1000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
304 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY.

* WINDS...EAST 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT...THEN 4 TO 7 FEET FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

[Pfishingruven]

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (15%) of severe weather for a small part of Southern NJ for tomorrow, Friday July 20.  The main threat will be damaging winds and hail during the afternoon and evening hours.  These storms will be scattered or even isolated during this time.

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has issued a Mesoscale Discussion for Southern NJ.  Storms in central/southern PA may be moving into the area in the next few hours.  Southern parts of NJ may experience isolated strong and severe thunderstorms.  Currently the storms in PA have formed into a squall line and have some characteristics of a bow echo(strong straight line winds. 

**Looks like a bow(as in bow and arrow) on radar from the winds pushing the storms from the west .

If you live in this area, please keep an ear to the weather!



SPC MD #1505


Current Radar out of Dover Air Force Base at 7:44 PM

[Ms Fish]

You are reallllly cool for posting all this. I look forward to seeing what you are going to put up. I am learning how to read the charts that you put up too. I usually hit NOAA and the local weather chnl, but I find them to be wrong more than not.    Dennis told me that the winds are going to be pretty bad this weekend. He sent me a really neat chart too. What are your thoughs?? Appreacite it. 

[Pfishingruven]

Showers and scattered/isolated thunderstorms will continue throughout the day into tonight, clearing out by early Saturday morning.  Rain can be heavy at times and thunderstorms could be strong to even severe mainly in Central & Southern NJ.  Temperatures will mainly be in the 70's today with some areas, mostly in the south seeing 80's.

The SPC has moved the Risk for Severe Weather Farther south, leaving most of Central & Southern NJ with only a 5% risk of severe weather with the greatest threat being damaging winds.  Extreme Southern NJ/Cape May County is still in a Slight Risk with a 15% chance of severe weather, including damaging winds and 5% risk of hail.

SPC Wind Probabilities Risk for Today



Current Radar



Current Radar & Visible Satellite



Satellite Water Vapor Image

[Pfishingruven]

Currrent Small Craft Advisories from Sandy Hook to
Fenwick Island Delaware, including Raritan Bay/New York Harbor

Small Craft Advisory
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
920 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ454-455-210130-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
920 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.REST OF TODAY...W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING N 10 TO 15 KT
LATE. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. VSBY 1 TO
3 NM.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING E 15 TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY
IN THE EVENING. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO
6 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. A CHANCE OF
TSTMS IN THE EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING.
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.MON...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.TUE...W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO
4 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

$$

Small Craft Advisory
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
646 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY OUT 20 NM OFFSHORE
INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND...LONG ISLAND BAYS AND NEW YORK HARBOR

ANZ338-202245-
NEW YORK HARBOR-
646 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
EARLY...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. WAVES 1
TO 2 FT. RAIN. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. WAVES 1 TO 2 FT. RAIN LIKELY.
.SAT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. WAVES 1 TO 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS.
.SUN...NE WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. WAVES
1 FT OR LESS.
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS.
.MON...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE...W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. WAVES 1 FT
OR LESS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS AND WAVES HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

$$

Offshore Forecast

TODAY
 E TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT...EXCEPT OVER FAR S PORTION
 SW 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT BUILDING TO 5 TO 9 FT...HIGHEST
 N. SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS.

 TONIGHT
 WINDS BECOMING NE 20 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT OVER FAR S
 PORTION SHIFTING WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. SHOWERS. A
 CHANCE OF TSTMS MAINLY S PORTION.

 SAT
 WINDS BECOMING NE 10 TO 20 KT THROUGHOUT. SEAS SUBSIDING
 TO 5 TO 7 FT LATE. WINDS AND SEAS BECOMING HIGHEST SE. SCATTERED
 SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY S PORTION.

 SAT NIGHT
 E TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS BECOMING 4 TO 6 FT.
 ISOLATED SHOWERS S PORTION.

[Ms Fish]

Awww man...looks like a possile anchor in land and hang out. Thanks! 

[Pfishingruven]

You are reallllly cool for posting all this. I look forward to seeing what you are going to put up. I am learning how to read the charts that you put up too. I usually hit NOAA and the local weather chnl, but I find them to be wrong more than not.    Dennis told me that the winds are going to be pretty bad this weekend. He sent me a really neat chart too. What are your thoughs?? Appreacite it. 

Thanks Ms. Fish!  

All of the weather agencies get their data from the same places.  No one weather agency has better data than another.  The data comes from models and real time monitoring stations and weather balloons.  The models are just mathematical algorithms used to forecast the weather.  The US has a model, Europe has a model, the UK has a model, Canada has a model and Japan...among many others.  The models are only as good as the data going into them.  The models are not always right, especially for 5+ days out.  The shorter range, rapid output models are the most accurate, however they only go out 12-18 hours at a time and every hour they update the information changes.  The agencies then take this data and forecast and interpret how they like.  NOAA/The National Weather Service is not very aggressive and they are always cautious and sit on the fence.  The Weather Channel gives very broad, general forecasts.  It is very difficult to forecast for one area, as small as a town.  Marine weather is even harder to forecast.  You have many factors trying to predict how high waves will get or how big the swell will be.  

The best way to get an accurate forecasts is to learn to read the data and interpret it yourself, including using information you know about the areas.  This isn't the easiest, but the more and more you use it and try, the better you will get and the easier it will be.  You always have backups to look at too...BuoyWeather, NWS, Accuweather, etc!

If you have any questions, feel free to ask.

Today and tomorrow are not good for water conditions and winds, averaging 15-20 knots with 25+ knot gusts.  Seas are 4-8 feet inshore and offshore 4-8 building to 5-9 feet tonight.  Tomorrow looks a little less windy, averaging 10-15 knots with 20+ knot gusts and seas 4-6 feet inshore.  Seas and winds will start to lay down Saturday evening into the night and should make Sunday better, but it won't be fully recovered, with winds 5-10 knots on average and seas 2-3 feet inshore!

[Pfishingruven]

Coastal Flood Advisory
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
316 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

...MARGINAL MINOR TIDAL FLOOD EPISODE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.A STIFF ONSHORE FLOW OF 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY`S
RAIN HAS GENERATED A 1 FOOT STORM SURGE. THAT SURGE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO VERY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. WAVE ACTION ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE MAY ADD TO THE IMPACT.

DEZ002>004-NJZ012>014-020>027-210600-
/O.NEW.KPHI.CF.Y.0016.120721T0000Z-120721T0600Z/
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
316 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
2 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
2 AM EDT SATURDAY.

* LOCATION...ENTIRE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS BORDERING THE
  ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH TIDAL INUNDATION RELATED FLOODING OF THE COASTS
  ADJACENT THE LOWER TWO THIRDS OF DELAWARE BAY.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR FLOODING...AT WORST...IS ANTICIPATED
  WITHIN A HALF HOUR EITHER SIDE THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS
  EVENING...FROM SANDY HOOK TO CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY TO LEWES
  DELAWARE.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE ON THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE OCEANFRONTS
  OCCURS BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 9 PM AND 11 PM. HIGH TIDE
  ON THE BACK BAYS, ALONG DELAWARE BAY AND ALONG RARITAN BAY
  OCCURS LATER THAN THE HIGH TIDE ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT.

* SEAS...WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE 4 TO 7 FEET. WAVE
  HEIGHTS ON DELAWARE BAY WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET.

* IMPACTS...LOCALIZED ROADWAY FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.

* CONFIDENCE...AT LEAST SPOTTY EVENT OCCURRENCE IS EXPECTED
  TONIGHT. TIDES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW INUNDATION THRESHOLDS
  SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR
COUNTY PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER
CASE).

&&

$$

DRAG