Author Topic: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition August 6-10, 2012  (Read 6709 times)

Offline Pfishingruven

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The first full week of August and we are in the “dog days” of summer.  Again, temperatures will be normal to slightly above normal with moderate to higher humidity all week.  These temperatures and humidity, along with some frontal boundaries moving through and across the area will bring a threat of showers and/or thunderstorms all week.  The greatest chances of organized, widespread storms will be on Monday and Friday.  Some storms could be strong to severe.  There is also a threat of flash flooding with any of these storms, especially with heavy rains, due to the already saturated grounds.  After recovering from Sunday’s higher winds and seas, water conditions are rated good all week inshore and midshore to offshore except for Monday Morning for the southern inshore and midshore & offshore.  There is no forecasted threat of Small Craft Advisories after Monday morning.

Also to note, tropical activity has increased in the Atlantic Basin, with two tropical storms right now.  Thee Cape Verde area off of Africa has become very active in the last week and will continue to do so for the next couple of months.  TS Ernesto is forecast to impact Mexico or Texas and TS Florence should go out to sea, however this is a storm to keep an eye on for potential East Coast impact, if any.

High pressure that was in place off the Mid Atlantic Coast during the weekend has slowly drifted east.  A cold front will cross the region Sunday Night into Monday bringing rain and thunderstorms.  The cold front will then stall south of the area Monday into Tuesday.  The cold front will then drift north, now as a warm front Wednesday.  High pressure will build in below the warm front moving north on Thursday.  Another cold front will arrive late Friday or by the upcoming weekend.

Monday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy      
Precipitation:  60% chance showers/thunderstorms morning through afternoon clearing out for the evening/night
Temperatures
High:  Mid 80’s
Low:  Mid 60’s
Sunrise: 6:00am
Sunset: 8:05pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-3/10
Weather2Hunt.com-43/50

Tuesday-
Sky:  Sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  Slight chance showers/thunderstorms morning/afternoon, 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms evening/night
Temperatures
High:  Mid to upper 80’s
Low:  Upper 60’s
Sunrise: 6:00am
Sunset: 8:04pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-4/10
Weather2Hunt.com-40/50

Wednesday-
Sky:  Partly Sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  30% chance showers/thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:  Upper 80’s
Low:  Upper 60’s
Sunrise: 6:01am
Sunset: 8:03pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-6/10
Weather2Hunt.com-43/50

Thursday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy all day
Precipitation:  30% chance showers/thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:  Upper 80’s
Low:  Low 70’s
Sunrise: 6:02am
Sunset: 8:01pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-4/10
Weather2Hunt.com-33/50

Friday-
Sky:  Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  40% chance showers/thunderstorms morning/afternoon, 80% chance showers/thunderstorms evening/night
Temperatures
High:  Upper 80’s
Low:  Low 70’s
Sunrise: 6:03am
Sunset: 8:00pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-5/10
Weather2Hunt.com-37/50

Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis


Friday Surface Analysis



Total Accumulation of Rain from Sunday – Friday



Satellite of Atlantic Basin



National Hurricane Center Website

Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  81F
Monday Morning
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Monday  Afternoon
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Tuesday Morning
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Wednesday Morning
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Wed Afternoon
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Thursday Morning
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Thursday Afternoon
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Friday Morning
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Friday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)
                              


Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  78F
Monday Morning
Winds: W 10 to 14 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 7 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: NW 7 to 10 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 6 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: N 7 to 9 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: NE 2 to 3 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WNW 2 to 3 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 4 to 5 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: WSW 3 to 4 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 8 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: S 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 8 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: SSE 5 to 7 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SW 5 to 7 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 sec.

Manasquan Inlet Tides



Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  79F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WSW 15 to 20 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 6 sec.

Monday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 9 to 12 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 6 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NNE 7 to 10 knots
Seas: SE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: NNE 4 to 5 knots
Seas: SE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: ENE 2 to 3 knots
Seas: SE 2 feet at 9 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 4 to 5 knots
Seas: SE 2 feet at 9 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: SSE 4 to 6 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 8 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 11 to 15 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 8 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: SW 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 10 to 14 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 5 sec.

Cape May (Ocean) Tides



Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  82F
Monday Morning
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots with gust up to 20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, visibility 1-3 nm  
Monday  Afternoon
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, visibility 1-3 nm
Tuesday Morning
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Morning
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Wed Afternoon
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, visibility 1-3 nm
Thursday Morning
Wind: SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
 Friday Morning
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides



Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 18 to 25 knots
Seas: SSW 7 feet at 7 sec.

Monday Afternoon
Winds: NW 10 to 13 knots
Seas: SSW 5 feet at 7 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NNE 7 to 9 knots
Seas: SE 3 feet at 10 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: NNE 5 to 7 knots
Seas: SE 3 feet at 10 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SW 2 to 3 knots
Seas: SE 2 feet at 9 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 4 to 5 knots
Seas: SE 2 feet at 9 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: SW 3 to 5 knots
Seas: SE 2 feet at 8 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 8 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: SSE 11 to 14 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 9 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SW 9 to 13 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 9 sec.



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop





Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather…The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Servic
« Last Edit: August 06, 2012, 11:22:24 AM by Pfishingruven »


Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Monday Update
« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2012, 11:28:10 AM »
Rain is out of here for the day!!  Most of the State  picked up between a half an inch and more than two and half inches last night.  Today should dry out with sunny and clear conditions through tomorrow.  Highs in the mid to upper 80's today, moderately humid and lows in the upper 60's.  All Small Craft Advisories have expired or been cancelled.  Tomorrow will start out sunny and become more cloudy throughout the day.  20% chance of storms tomorrow evening/night with temperatures around the same as today.

 TT^
« Last Edit: August 06, 2012, 12:23:13 PM by Pfishingruven »


Offline Ms Fish

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Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition August 6-10, 2012
« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2012, 11:58:06 AM »
As always, thank you!!!!!!!  slt

Offline Mr Limpett

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Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition August 6-10, 2012
« Reply #3 on: August 06, 2012, 12:36:19 PM »
Great report, Thanks.
"I wish I was a fish"
-Mr Limpet


Offline fellinger

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Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition August 6-10, 2012
« Reply #4 on: August 06, 2012, 12:52:04 PM »
And let the summer games begin.... It's ok this week since I am not certain I can make it out at all. Maybe, just maybe Friday. From the news reports Friday is showers and storms.... Of course!  rgmn


Fred, fishing the "Kristy Marie" from Manasquan River Club. Channels 16/67/68.

Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: SPC issues Risk of Severe Weather for Friday August 10, 2012
« Reply #5 on: August 06, 2012, 03:57:54 PM »
SPC is already identifying a severe threat of weather on Friday August 10 for most of NJ.  They are already putting NJ in a 30% risk category.


Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition August 6-10, 2012
« Reply #6 on: August 06, 2012, 03:58:28 PM »
And let the summer games begin.... It's ok this week since I am not certain I can make it out at all. Maybe, just maybe Friday. From the news reports Friday is showers and storms.... Of course!  rgmn

Yeah, Friday is not looking good at all!


Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Update on Severe Weather
« Reply #7 on: August 07, 2012, 10:45:33 AM »
Some new Convective Outlooks for severe weather from the SPC. 

Thursday's overall forecast has been increased from 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms to 50% chance.  This includes a slight risk of severe weather for parts of NJ and surrounding areas. Organized storms will move into the area as multicell clusters/squall lines with widespread showers and thunderstorms.  Main threat is wind damage and hail.  There is a possibility of supercell formation.



Friday's still has a risk of severe weather, mainly damaging winds. The area has been extended to include all of NJ, now and most of the surrounding area!


Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Thursday Severe Weather Update
« Reply #8 on: August 09, 2012, 08:58:50 AM »
The SPC has decreased the severe weather threat in NJ to 5%, down from a Slight Risk at 15%.  There is still a slight chance of scattered or isolated thunderstorms today that could be strong to severe with damaging winds and hail, however the widespread threat for NJ has diminished.

Tomorrows risk is unchanged as of today.





Offline Sam3

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Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition August 6-10, 2012
« Reply #9 on: August 09, 2012, 11:27:25 AM »
Not looking good for our BFT trip tomorrow.  nosmly

Offline Hotrod

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Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition August 6-10, 2012
« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2012, 11:30:45 AM »
....... NO... :-\



Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Friday August 10th Nowcast
« Reply #11 on: August 10, 2012, 11:27:44 AM »
Widespread heavy rains with some thunderstorms have moved into the area associated with a low pressure system over the Ohio Valley ahead of a cold front.  The risk for severe weather is still unchanged, with a Slight Risk being issued by the SPC.  With the heavy rains and already saturated grounds, the NWS PHI has issued a Flood Advisory and Flash Flood conditions are possible.



Quote
Flood Advisory
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1033 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

DEC005-NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-
PAC017-101830-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.Y.0143.120810T1433Z-120810T1830Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAMDEN NJ-MERCER NJ-MORRIS NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SUSSEX NJ-BUCKS PA-
GLOUCESTER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-SUSSEX DE-BURLINGTON NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-
MONMOUTH NJ-ATLANTIC NJ-OCEAN NJ-SALEM NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-
1033 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
  CAMDEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  MERCER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...
  MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  SOMERSET COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  EAST CENTRAL SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  SOUTHEASTERN BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
  SOUTHEASTERN GLOUCESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  EASTERN SUSSEX COUNTY IN CENTRAL DELAWARE...
  BURLINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  CAPE MAY COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  MONMOUTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...
  ATLANTIC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  OCEAN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  SOUTHEASTERN SALEM COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  CUMBERLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 230 PM EDT

* AT 1028 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN FROM NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
THROUGH THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA TO SOUTHERN DELAWARE THAT WAS
MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 30 MPH. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA. THE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FROM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO SMALL STREAM...URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF NECESSARY.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3845 7556 3895 7539 3879 7515 3893 7497
      3916 7490 3930 7527 4125 7445 4120 7437
      4104 7450 4091 7427 4061 7443 4060 7421
      4047 7425 4042 7401 4048 7400 4047 7398
      4044 7397 3977 7408 3892 7497 3845 7504

$$

MPD
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
908 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

DEC001-003-005-MDC011-015-029-035-041-NJC005-007-011-015-019-021-027-
033-035-037-041-PAC017-029-045-077-089-091-095-101-101600-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.Y.0142.120810T1308Z-120810T1600Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WARREN NJ-CAMDEN NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-MERCER NJ-MORRIS NJ-SOMERSET NJ-
SUSSEX NJ-BUCKS PA-LEHIGH PA-MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-PHILADELPHIA PA-
DELAWARE PA-GLOUCESTER NJ-NORTHAMPTON PA-NEW CASTLE DE-CECIL MD-
KENT MD-CHESTER PA-KENT DE-TALBOT MD-CAROLINE MD-SUSSEX DE-
BURLINGTON NJ-QUEEN ANNE`S MD-SALEM NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-
908 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
  DRAINAGE AREAS IN...
  WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  WESTERN CAMDEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  NORTHWESTERN MERCER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...
  WESTERN MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  WESTERN SOMERSET COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
  SOUTHEASTERN LEHIGH COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
  EASTERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
  MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
  PHILADELPHIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
  DELAWARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
  GLOUCESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
  NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...
  SOUTHEASTERN CECIL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...
  EASTERN KENT COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...
  EASTERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
  KENT COUNTY IN CENTRAL DELAWARE...
  TALBOT COUNTY IN EASTERN MARYLAND...
  CAROLINE COUNTY IN EASTERN MARYLAND...
  WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY IN CENTRAL DELAWARE...
  WEST CENTRAL BURLINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  QUEEN ANNE`S COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...
  SALEM COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  WESTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL NOON EDT

* AT 905 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. THESE WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE THROUGH THE MORNING.
SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SMALL STREAM...URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. IF NECESSARY...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3846 7570 3870 7581 3857 7603 3872 7631
      3866 7634 3901 7619 3901 7623 3937 7587
      4124 7526 4124 7512 4109 7502 4124 7487
      4124 7442 3925 7520 3928 7529 3948 7558
      3899 7531 3845 7553

$$

MPD
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1102 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071-081-085-087-119-101645-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FA.Y.0083.120810T1502Z-120810T1645Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
1102 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
  DRAINAGE AREAS IN...
  EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
  ROCKLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
  KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
  HUDSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
  RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
  ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
  BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
  WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
  BRONX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
  NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
  UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
  PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
  WESTERN NASSAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
  QUEENS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 1245 PM EDT...

* AT 1044 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED A LINE OF
  HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
  JERSEY AND A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
  NORTH ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST TOWARD NEW YORK CITY.

  MAXIMUM HOURLY RADAR RAINFALL RATES WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 1 1/2
  INCHES PER HOUR AND CAUSE RAPID PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING
  AREAS PRODUCING MINOR URBAN FLOODING.

  THESE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE ADVISORY
  AREA THROUGH 12:45 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MINOR FLOODING MEANS THAT ALTHOUGH STREAMS AND CREEKS MAY RISE OUT OF
THEIR BANKS...PROPERTY DAMAGE WILL BE MINIMAL. INCONVENIENCES CAN BE
EXPECTED BUT THE FLOODING WILL NOT BE IMMEDIATELY LIFE THREATENING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. MOST FLOODING DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. TURN AROUND AND
FIND ANOTHER ROUTE.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF THE FLOODING THREAT INCREASES...OR A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 4060 7422 4061 7444 4096 7428 4109 7449
      4120 7436 4163 7427 4159 7395 4132 7398
      4132 7394 4106 7388 4107 7370 4101 7365
      4096 7366 4090 7375 4084 7376 4086 7368
      4058 7372 4058 7401 4061 7405 4049 7425

$$
GC

Offline Scott G.

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Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition August 6-10, 2012
« Reply #12 on: August 10, 2012, 11:29:32 AM »
 t^ THANK YOU  t^
Fishing, with me, has always been an excuse to drink in the daytime.

Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: NEW EVENT Small Craft Advisories & Marine Warnings
« Reply #13 on: August 10, 2012, 11:47:11 AM »
Small Craft Advisories for ocean waters from Sandy Hook to Fenwick Island, DE from 6pm Friday through Saturday Afternoon.  This DOES NOT include New York Harbor or Raritan Bay at this time.  Ocean waters off of Long Island are also under SCA's.

There are also Marine Warnings and Marine Weather Statements issued regarding the storms moving through.


Quote
Small Craft Advisory
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ450-451-110115-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
954 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS
LIKELY. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO
6 FT. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM IN
THE EVENING.
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO
6 FT. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE MORNING...THEN
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...
DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.SUN...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS AROUND 3 FT.
.MON...W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SW 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT.
.TUE...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
EVENING...THEN BECOMING SW 5 TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO
4 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

$$
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ452>455-110115-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
954 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS
LIKELY. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. SHOWERS LIKELY
WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM IN THE EVENING.
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO
6 FT. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE MORNING...THEN
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.SUN...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS AROUND 3 FT.
.MON...W WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.TUE...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING SW 5 TO 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

$$
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

ANZ450>455-102100-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0078.120810T2200Z-120811T2200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
400 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. . IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 600 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL
600 PM ON SATURDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
  GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.

* SEAS...4 TO 7 FEET.

* TIMING...FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THOSE RANGES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING A SMALL
VESSEL, SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT DURING THE ADVISORY PERIOD.

&&

$$

IOVINO

Quote
pecial Marine Warning
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
ANZ450-451-470-101745-
/O.NEW.KPHI.MA.W.0106.120810T1541Z-120810T1745Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1141 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
  THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN SANDY HOOK AND LITTLE EGG INLET
  NJ OUT TO 20 NM...
  THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN SANDY HOOK NJ AND FENWICK
  ISLAND DE OUT 20 TO 40 NM...

  INCLUDING MONMOUTH BEACH...SANDY HOOK REEF...SEA BRIGHT...SEA GIRT
  REEF AND SHARK RIVER REEF...

* UNTIL 145 PM EDT

* AT 1137 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS
  NORTH OF BARNEGAT INLET AND MANASQUAN INLET. SOME OF THE STORMS
  WERE PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER. THEY WERE
  MOVING NORTH AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THE STRONGEST STORM. IF CAUGHT
ON THE OPEN WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...AND KEEP AWAY FROM
UNGROUNDED METAL OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3971 7330 4009 7401 4021 7401 4032 7398
      4030 7401 4034 7402 4036 7398 4037 7402
      4039 7402 4040 7397 4044 7398 4025 7364
      3993 7336 3980 7330
TIME...MOT...LOC 1539Z 214DEG 23KT 4018 7380

$$

MPD
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
ANZ453-470-101600-
/O.NEW.KPHI.MA.W.0105.120810T1458Z-120810T1600Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1058 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
  THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN GREAT EGG INLET AND CAPE MAY NJ
  OUT TO 20 NM...
  THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN SANDY HOOK NJ AND FENWICK
  ISLAND DE OUT 20 TO 40 NM...

  INCLUDING 28-MILE WRECK...BUOY 2FB...BUOY 3FB...BUOY 4FB...CAPE MAY
  REEF...DEEPWATER REEF...FIVE FATHOMS BUOY...OCEAN CITY REEF...THE
  LUMP AND WILDWOOD REEF...

* UNTIL NOON EDT

* AT 1057 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER THE
  LUMP...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS.

* THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN AWAY FROM
  SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LANDMARKS OVER THE INDICATED AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 3963 7331 3934 7345 3901 7370 3875 7400
      3870 7415 3850 7426 3822 7432 3836 7472
      3865 7473 3874 7459 3892 7493 3928 7456
      3904 7431 3918 7410 3965 7378 4025 7364
      3986 7332
TIME...MOT...LOC 1458Z 204DEG 23KT 3912 7457

$$

JJM
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
ANZ451-452-470-101615-
/O.NEW.KPHI.MA.W.0104.120810T1451Z-120810T1615Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1051 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
  THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN MANASQUAN INLET AND GREAT EGG
  INLET NJ OUT TO 20 NM...
  THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN SANDY HOOK NJ AND FENWICK
  ISLAND DE OUT 20 TO 40 NM...

  INCLUDING ATLANTIC CITY REEF...AXEL CARLSON REEF...BARNEGAT
  LIGHT...BARNEGAT LIGHT REEF...BEACH HAVEN...BRIGANTINE...DEEPWATER
  REEF...FORKED RIVER...GARDEN STATE NORTH REEF...GARDEN STATE SOUTH
  REEF...GREAT EGG REEF...HARVEY CEDARS...LAVALLETTE...LITTLE EGG
  INLET...LITTLE EGG REEF...NORTH BEACH HAVEN...OCEAN GATE...SEASIDE
  PARK AND SHIP BOTTOM...

* UNTIL 1215 PM EDT

* AT 1048 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER 5 NM EAST
  OF ATLANTIC CITY REEF...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT ON THE
OPEN WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED
METAL OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3922 7354 3874 7404 3929 7455 3946 7444
      3945 7440 3947 7442 3955 7439 3954 7431
      3956 7435 3972 7418 3972 7420 3982 7416
      3981 7421 3982 7421 3985 7414 3987 7417
      4010 7403 3972 7330
TIME...MOT...LOC 1450Z 217DEG 28KT 3929 7415

$$

JJM

Offline Ms Fish

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Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition August 6-10, 2012
« Reply #14 on: August 10, 2012, 12:09:02 PM »
clp Thanks!!!  slt


Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Friday Aug 10th Tropics Update
« Reply #15 on: August 10, 2012, 12:47:45 PM »
Some changes in the tropics, but not a whole lot that is forecast to affect the East Coast at all.  Once Hurricane Ernesto is now just remnants over Mexico entering the Eastern Pacific.  There is now Tropical Depression #7 in the Atlantic moving west at 20 knots.  It has a good chance of becoming a Tropical Storm.  There is also Invest 93L off of Cape Verde Africa that has a 50% chance of becoming a tropical system.  This will most likely evolve into at least a tropical storm and if it follows the others, go west.  However, this is one to watch.

Tropics Satellite Wide View



Track of TD#7



Spaghetti Models for TD#7 (this is an image of the forecast tracks from all of the weather models.  This is what the Meteorologists at the NHC look at to help forecast the track of the storm)


 

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