NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition August 20-24, 2012

[Pfishingruven]

This week will start off wet with rain starting Sunday Night and lasting through Tuesday.  Rain will be widespread and locally heavy Monday with up to an inch of accumulation possible for much of the area.  Showers will lessen Monday night becoming more scattered or isolated into Tuesday.  These heavier rains could cause Flood Advisories and Flash Flooding Conditions, locally.  The remainder of the week will be dry.  Highs will be in the low to mid 80’s and lows in the mid 60’s overnight.  Water conditions are rated good for inshore and midshore to offshore all week.  Monday may see higher winds and seas lingering from the weekend and present with the low pressure system moving through the area.  No small craft advisories are forecast for the week.

The tropics are relatively quiet, although we are approaching the peak of tropical season.  Hurricane Gordon is a Category 2 Hurricane with 100 mph winds.  It is still around 2000 miles southeast of the NJ Coast and continues moving east northeast.  This is no threat to the US, although it will impact the Azores, Portugal and the British Islands this coming week.  The storm of concern is Invest 94L in the Atlantic west of Africa.  The NHC gives it a 60% chance for tropical development and some models forecast it to become a Category 3 Hurricane with an East Coast Track.  The major models have backed off of this track right now, but this is still 10-12 days out and is something to keep an eye on.

Low pressure will move across the stalled front to our south on Monday and Tuesday.  High pressure will then begin building into the area from the middle of the week through the early part of the weekend.


Monday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy      
Precipitation:  60% chance of showers during the day, 40% chance of showers at night
Temperatures
High:  Mid to upper 70’s
Low:  Low 60’s
Sunrise: 6:13am
Sunset: 7:47pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-1/10
Weather2Hunt.com-27/50

Tuesday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  20% chance of showers all day
Temperatures
High:  Mid 80’s
Low:  Mid 60’s
Sunrise: 6:14am
Sunset: 7:45pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-4/10
Weather2Hunt.com-37/50

Wednesday
Sky:  Mostly sunny & mostly clear
Precipitation:  Slight chance  
Temperatures
High:  Mid 80’s
Low:  Mid 60’s
Sunrise: 6:15am
Sunset: 7:44pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-2/10
Weather2Hunt.com-37/50

Thursday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  Slight chance
Temperatures
High:  Mid 80’s
Low:  Mid 60’s
Sunrise: 6:16am
Sunset: 7:42pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-8/10
Weather2Hunt.com-37/50

Friday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  Slight chance
Temperatures
High:  Mid 80’s
Low:  Mid 60’s
Sunrise: 6:17am
Sunset: 7:41pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-8/10
Weather2Hunt.com-33/50

Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis


Friday Surface Analysis



Total Accumulation of Rain from Sunday – Friday



Satellite of Atlantic Basin




Invest 94L Spaghetti Models




Invest 94L Intensity Models



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  78F
Monday Morning
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Monday  Afternoon
Wind:  NE 10 knots becoming N 5-10 knots at night
Seas:  1 foot or less
Tuesday Morning
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Wednesday Morning
Wind:  N 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Wed Afternoon
Wind:  E 5 knots becoming W after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Thursday Morning
Wind:  NW 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Thursday Afternoon
Wind:  SW 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Friday Morning
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Friday Night
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)
                              


Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  77F
Monday Morning
Winds: ENE 7 to 10 knots
Seas: ESE 1 feet at 8 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 4 to 6 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 8 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: W 4 to 6 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 7 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 4 to 5 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 7 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NE 5 to 7 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 19 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 4 to 5 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 19 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: NE 8 to 11 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 18 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 7 to 10 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 18 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: N 5 to 7 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 17 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: NE 3 to 4 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 16 sec.

Manasquan Inlet Tides



Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  76F
Monday Morning
Winds: NE 12 to 17 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 5 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: NNE 5 to 7 knots
Seas: E 3 feet at 6 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SW 5 to 7 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 6 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 6 to 7 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 6 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: ENE 8 to 11 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 19 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: E 7 to 10 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 19 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: NNE 10 to 14 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 18 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: NNE 9 to 13 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 18 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: NNE 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 17 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: NNE 5 to 7 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.

Cape May (Ocean) Tides



Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  76F
Monday Morning
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Monday  Afternoon
Wind:  E 5-10 knots becoming N after midmight
Seas:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Morning
Wind:  NW 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind:  SE 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Morning
Wind:  NE 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Wed Afternoon
Wind:  NE 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Thursday Morning
Wind: NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Friday Morning
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides



Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Monday Morning
Winds: ENE 13 to 17 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 8 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: NE 7 to 10 knots
Seas: SE 3 feet at 5 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: W 5 to 7 knots
Seas: S 4 feet at 8 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 7 to 10 knots
Seas: S 3 feet at 7 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: E 5 to 7 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 19 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 6 to 9 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 19 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: ENE 11 to 15 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 18 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 10 to 14 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 18 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: NNE 10 to 14 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 16 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: NNE 7 to 9 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 16 sec.



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather…The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

There are two systems in the Atlantic that are worth mentioning now and need to be watched.  The first is Tropical Depression #9 which was Invest 94L.  TD 9 is about 550 miles east of the Lesser Antilles with winds of 35 mph and a central pressure of 1008 mb.  This system is forecast to affect the US.  The exact track and intensity is still unknown, but this has a good chance of affecting the East Coast in some form.  More specifics will be known once data and stats are received from the Reconnaissance Planes/Hurricane Hunters.

There is also a new invest, 96L in the Atlantic off of Africa and southeast of TD 9.  This system also needs to be watched, as it has a 60% chance of further developing into a tropical cyclone.  It too, could affect the US and sepcifically the East Coast.

Tropical Depression #9 Stats

LOCATION...15.3N 53.2W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

Tropics Satellite with NHC Overlay



NHC Official Track for TD 9



Model Tracks for TD 9



Model Intensity for TD 9



Model Tracks for Invest 96L

[Pfishingruven]

The tropics are still very active with 2 tropical storms and an area of interest that is off of the coast of Cape Verde Africa.



Tropical Storm Isaac, which was Invest 94L and Tropical Depression #9, is 200 miles SSE of San Juan, Puerto Rico moving west at 15 mph.  Winds are sustained at 45 mph with a central pressure of 1003 mb.  This is a relatively large storm that is slowly strengthening and getting its act together.  It fought through some wind shear and dry air the last 36 hours.  The Official NHC Track brings the center just west of Florida and up the coast making landfall somewhere in northwestern Florida, most likely in the panhandle as a Category 2 Hurricane.  It is still too early to pinpoint this track or intensity with any certainty.  There are too many factors such as interaction with the islands in the current path, how much of the storm remains over water, if it strengthens in the very warm coastal Gulf of Mexico waters with SST’s in the upper 80’s and 90’s.  After landfall, where it goes from there would just be an educated guess.  Models are showing the possibility of the storm getting back into the Atlantic and strengthening back into a hurricane that would then affect parts of the East Coast.  Other models show it going up the east coast, inland, as remnants which could bring flooding rains to the area.  Either way, it is something to closely watch.  These cyclones always find a way to keep it interesting!

NHC Official Isaac Track



Isaac Model Tracks





Isaac Model Intensity



Isaac Satellite Loop

Then there is Tropical Storm Joyce, formerly Invest 96L and Tropical Depression #10.  This storm should not pose a threat to any US land.  It is currently 1305 miles east of the Leeward Islands moving WNW at 17 mph.  It has sustained winds of 40 mph and a central pressure of 1006 mb.  They are forecasting this storm to get to Hurricane status, however, they are anticipating a trough taking it farther out to sea.  This would be the same trough that picks up Isaac and moves that storm eastward as well.  You can see in the satellite loop, that this is a smaller storm right now that is trying to build and strengthen, but is doing so very slowly.

NHC Official Joyce Track



Joyce Model Tracks



Joyce Satellite Loop

The area of interest off of Africa has only been given a 10% chance of tropical development in the next  48 hours, but this is where most of the tropical development will come from in August and September and will likely increase as we move into the peak of tropics season.




I will keep this updated within the weekly and weekend weather outlooks until there becomes a threat to the area!

[Hotrod]

Wow Matt.  A lot of info here

[Scott G.]

   THANKS MATT...      

[Pfishingruven]

Amazing how quickly the tropics change in a little more than 24 hours.  Currently there are 2 systems and now an area of invest:  Tropical Storm Isaac, Post Tropical Cyclone/Tropical Depression Joyce, and Invest 97L.



Tropical Storm Isaac is showing some strengthening and has started taking a slight turn to the WNW.  Here are the current stats on the storm:

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 70.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

The NHC is suggesting this becomes a moderate Category 1 Hurricane now.  Most of the models have backed off anything greater than 80 mph winds.  Despite having very favorable conditions, this storm has not gotten stronger and its structure is only good at best.  There is not an area of central circulation, but rather several areas spinning around a general central area.  However, this doesn't mean that once it gets over HOT waters it won't change and rapidly intensify.  Or it could continue to struggle like it has the last week or so.  Intensity is actually the hardest feature of a tropical system to forecast.  It's even harder, when the system does or doesn't strengthen or weaken when it is anticipated it will.

All of this information, specifically the track and intensity has changed every 6 hours with the new model runs.  Last night NOAA's Gulf Stream IV aircraft did atmospheric sampling above and around the storm.  This information gave the models more accurate data to calculate.  The models have not really verified at all with this storm.  Weaker storms are much harder to pinpoint.  This is still a storm we need to watch and see where it ends up and how it impacts us, if at all, sometime next week.

NHC Isaac Track



Isaac Model Tracks





Isaac Model Intensity



TS Isaac Satellite Loop


Tropical Storm Joyce is pretty much done.  This storm was unable to strengthen at all and struggled as a tropical storm.  It is currently a post tropical cyclone/tropical depression with only 35 mph winds, no organization and already has started making its northward turn to go out to sea still more than 1000 miles from any islands.  This will not be a threat to any islands in the Caribbean or US lands.

NHC Joyce Track




The last system is Invest 97L off of Africa.  This area has a 30% chance of development now as it continues moving west.  It is way too early to tell anything about this system, but certainly is something to watch.

Invest 97L Model Tracks