NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition Sept 10-14, 2012

[Pfishingruven]

The weather is looking really nice this week.  There will be a majority of sunny skies the next 5 days with only very slight chances of rain.  The greater chance of rain will be on Friday, if any.  High temperatures will be in the upper 70’s for most of the week with low 80’s by the end of the week.  Overnight lows will get to the low 50’s on some nights.  Lows for the end of the week will be low 60’s.  Humidity will be much lower with much drier air for the week.  Water conditions are rated good all week for Inshore and Midshore to Offshore, except for Monday for southern inshore areas and all midshore to offshore areas having cautious conditions with Small Craft Advisories.  Although, conditions are rated good, there are still long period swells with higher seas from the tropical systems in the Atlantic.  You really need to check the marine forecast prior to going out and really looking at the numbers they are forecasting.  Models have sped up Leslie, slightly and the storm may be gone as early as Tuesday into Wednesday, as opposed to mid to late day Wednesday.  There is a chance of SCA being posted for Tuesday as well, now.

High pressure will start to build into the area from the upper Mississippi Valley and should be completely in place by Tuesday.  High pressure will then dominate the area through Friday or Saturday when a weak cold front will try and move across the area.

Monday
Sky:  Sunny becoming mostly clear      
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance
Temperatures
High:  Mid to upper 70’s
Low:  Low 50’s
Sunrise: 6:33am
Sunset: 7:14pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-7/10
Weather2Hunt.com-33/50

Tuesday
Sky:  Sunny becoming mostly clear
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance
Temperatures
High:  Mid to upper 70’s
Low:  Low 50’s
Sunrise: 6:34am
Sunset: 7:12pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-8/10
Weather2Hunt.com-40/50

Wednesday
Sky:  Sunny becoming mostly clear
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance  
Temperatures
High:  Low 80’s
Low:  Mid 50’s
Sunrise: 6:34am
Sunset: 7:11pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-6/10
Weather2Hunt.com-33/50

Thursday
Sky:  Sunny becoming mostly clear
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance
Temperatures
High:  Low 80’s
Low:  Low 60’s
Sunrise: 6:35am
Sunset: 7:09pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-8/10
Weather2Hunt.com-33/50

Friday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance
Temperatures
High:  Low 80’s
Low:  Low 60’s
Sunrise: 6:36am
Sunset: 7:07pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-9/10
Weather2Hunt.com-37/50

Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface Analysis



Total Accumulation of Rain from Sunday – Friday




Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  78F
Monday Morning
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Monday  Afternoon
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Morning
Wind:  N 10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots becoming W after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Wednesday Morning
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Wed Afternoon
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Thursday Morning
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Thursday Afternoon
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Friday Morning
Wind:  W 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Friday Afternoon
Wind:  S 5 knots becoming SW 5-10 knots in evening and then becoming NW after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)
                              


Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  75F
Monday Morning
Winds: NNW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 13 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 10 to 14 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 13 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: N 8 to 10 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 12 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: NE 3 to 4 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 12 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NW 3 to 4 knots
Seas: E 2 feet at 11 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 3 to 5 knots
Seas: E 2 feet at 11 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: NW 2 to 3 knots
Seas: E 2 feet at 12 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: S 3 to 5 knots
Seas: E 1 feet at 12 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: WNW 4 to 5 knots
Seas: E 1 feet at 10 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SW 3 to 4 knots
Seas: E 1 feet at 9 sec.

Manasquan Inlet Tides



Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  74F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: N 17 to 23 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 13 sec.
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNW 14 to 19 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 13 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: N 11 to 14 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 12 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: N 6 to 8 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 12 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NE 5 to 6 knots
Seas: E 3 feet at 11 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: E 4 to 6 knots
Seas: E 2 feet at 11 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: ENE 4 to 5 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 12 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 4 to 5 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 12 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: NE 3 to 5 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 3 to 4 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.

Cape May (Ocean) Tides



Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  72F
Monday Morning
Wind:  N 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Monday  Afternoon
Wind:  N 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
Wind:  N 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind:  N 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots becoming N at 5 knots by night
Seas:  2-4 feet laying down to 2-3 feet at night
Wednesday Morning
Wind:  N 5 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Wed Afternoon
Wind:  S 5 knots becoming SW after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Wind: W 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Wind:  SW 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Friday Morning
Wind:  S 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Friday Afternoon
Wind:  S 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides



Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: N 17 to 22 knots
Seas: ESE 6 feet at 13 sec.
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNW 15 to 20 knots
Seas: ESE 7 feet at 13 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: N 11 to 15 knots
Seas: ESE 6 feet at 12 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: NNE 7 to 9 knots
Seas: ESE 5 feet at 12 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NE 2 to 3 knots
Seas: E 4 feet at 11 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SE 3 to 4 knots
Seas: E 3 feet at 10 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: ESE 2 to 3 knots
Seas: E 2 feet at 12 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: S 2 to 3 knots
Seas: E 2 feet at 12 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: WNW 2 to 3 knots
Seas: E 2 feet at 10 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 3 to 4 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 sec.



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

Just wanted to update the tropics quickly.  Leslie is already a bit north of NJ in the Atlantic.  This is great for ocean conditions!  By the morning, Leslie should be almost into Canada.  Numbers haven't changed too much, but by tomorrow I am anticipating numbers and forecasts to reflect waters conditions laying down quite a bit.

Hurricane Michael is still out there and will not likely cause any issues.

There is a new invest, Invest 91L in the Atlantic that will become a Tropical Depression within 12-24 hours.  This is not a threat to land, however, depending on the track it may affect water conditions again.

I will update water conditions as needed tomorrow.

 

[Pfishingruven]

Marine Forecasts are not that much different from what I posted at the beginning of the week.  Winds, sea heights and wave periods have come down very slightly.  All water conditions are rated good for the remainder of the week.  There is still a longer period swell, but sea heights are down to an average of 1-2 feet inshore with 2-4 feet midshore to offshore.  If you are going out, you definitely need to check the conditions for the area you will be at, but overall it is looking good.

Leslie and Michael are gone.  They have become extra tropical systems or remnants off in the northern Atlantic.  Invest 91L is now Tropical Storm Nadine and will not be a threat to land and should stay far enough out to see that any effects will be minimal to none.  They are exptecting this storm to become a weak hurricane.

Here are some stats on Nadine:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 AM AST WED SEP 12 2012

...NADINE STRENGTHENS MORE WHILE IT REMAINS FAR FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 46.6W
ABOUT 995 MI...1605 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.6 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H.  A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NADINE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropics Visible Satellite



Nadine Official NHC Track