NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition Nov 12-16, 2012

[Pfishingruven]

Let's get this back to normal.  Today will be mostly to partly sunny today with highs in the mid to upper 60's and lows only into the 50's.  As the front moves through, clouds will increase giving way to showers likely through Tuesday Morning and areas of fog.  As the front passes, showers will end bringing sunny conditions for the remainder of the week.  Temperatures will be more seasonal, although slightly higher for this time of year with highs in the 50's and lows down into the 30's.  From midweek through the weekend, there will be high pressure sitting to our north/northeast and low pressure off to our south/southeast.  This will cause a decent pressure gradient over the area, bringing gustier winds and a northeasterly, onshore flow for the rest of the week.  Water and wind conditions will vary throughout the locations.  Small Craft Advisories are currently posted and likely through Wednesday, with increased seas and winds inshore of 4-5 feet and 25+ knots.  Offshore could see 8-9 foot seas with 25+ knot gusts.  If you can get to the surf, surf conditions will be normal through tomorrow with 1-2 foot wave heights, then increasing 2-3 and even 4-5 feet with rough surf conditions through the weekend.  The increased onshore flow with higher lunar tides could cause minor coastal flooding and additional beach erosion.  This is going to be a LONG Winter.

Possibility of a coastal storm/nor'easter Thanksgiving Week.  It is too far out to pinpoint anything, but the models have been consistently trending a storm for the last 7-10 days.

High pressure influences will begin to diminish today as a large cold front extending from the Great Lakes to the Mississippi River Valley will progress to the east and move through the region later tonight.  High pressure will again follow for the midweek into the weekend.  With high pressure to our north/northeast and low pressure to our south, there will be an increased pressure gradient and strong northeasterly flow on shore.

Current Small Craft Advisories

Monday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy   
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance during the day, 70% chance of showers at night
High:  Mid to upper 60's
Low:  Low 50's
Sunrise: 6:38am
Sunset: 4:43pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-8/10
Weather2Hunt.com-40/50

Tuesday
Sky:  Cloudy becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  70% chance of showers early in the day, 0% to slight chance at night
Temperatures
High:  Low to mid 50’s
Low:  Low to mid 30’s
Sunrise: 6:39am
Sunset: 4:42pm
New Moon: 5:09pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-8/10
Weather2Hunt.com-40/50

Wednesday
Sky:  Sunny and mostly clear
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance
Temperatures
High:  Low to mid 50’s
Low:  Mid 30’s
Sunrise: 6:40am
Sunset: 4:41pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-7/10
Weather2Hunt.com-40/50

Thursday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance
Temperatures
High:  Low to mid 50’s
Low:  Low to mid 30’s
Sunrise: 6:41am
Sunset: 4:40pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-8/10
Weather2Hunt.com-47/50

Friday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance
Temperatures
High:  Low to mid 50's
Low:  Mid to upper 30’s
Sunrise: 6:42am
Sunset: 4:40pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-8/10
Weather2Hunt.com-47/50

Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis


Friday Surface Analysis



Total Accumulation of Rain from Monday – Saturday



Pressure Gradient/Onshore Flow

**Lines very close together represent different pressures/pressure gradient where winds flow from high to low pressure.  The closer the pressure lines, the stronger the winds.



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  Unavailable (Primary and Backup Buoys damaged by Sandy!)
Monday Morning
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Monday  Afternoon
Wind:  S 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, visibility 1-3 nm with areas of fog
Tuesday Morning
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, visibility 1-3 nm with areas of fog 
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind:  N 5-10 knots becoming N 10-15 knots at night
Seas:  1-2 feet becoming 1 foot or less 
Wednesday Morning
Wind:  N 10-15 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Wed Afternoon
Wind:  N 10-15 knots becoming NE 5-10 knots at night
Seas:  2 feet becoming 1 foot or less
Thursday Morning
Wind:  NE 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Thursday Afternoon
Wind:  NE 5 knots becoming NW after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Friday Morning
Wind:  N 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Friday Afternoon
Wind:  N 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)
                             




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  55F
Monday Morning
Winds: SSW 8 to 10 knots
Seas: E 2 feet at 10 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: S 12 to 16 knots
Seas: E 2 feet at 10 sec.
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NW 15 to 21 knots
Seas: S 3 feet at 5 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 13 to 17 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 9 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NNE 13 to 17 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 9 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: NNE 12 to 17 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 11 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: NE 10 to 14 knots
Seas: ESE 5 feet at 11 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: NNE 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 11 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: NNW 6 to 9 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 11 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: N 5 to 6 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 11 sec.

Manasquan Inlet Tides





Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  51F
Monday Morning
Winds: S 9 to 13 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: S 13 to 17 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNW 21 to 28 knots
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 5 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NNW 15 to 20 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 9 sec.
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NNE 14 to 19 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 9 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NNE 14 to 19 knots
Seas: ESE 5 feet at 10 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: NNE 11 to 16 knots
Seas: ESE 5 feet at 11 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: NNE 10 to 14 knots
Seas: ESE 5 feet at 10 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: N 8 to 11 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 10 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: N 8 to 10 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 10 sec.

Cape May (Ocean) Tides





Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  50F
Monday Morning
Wind:  SE 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Monday Afternoon
Wind:  SE 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots becoming S 10 knots at night then SW after midnight
Seas:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots becoming N at night
Seas:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
Wind:  N 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Wed Afternoon
Wind:  N 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots becoming NE 10-15 knots at night
Seas:  2-4 feet becoming 2-3 feet at night
Thursday Morning
Wind: N 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Wind:  N 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Friday Morning
Wind:  N 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Wind:  N 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  56F
Monday Morning
Winds: S 9 to 13 knots
Seas: E 3 feet at 10 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: S 11 to 14 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 10 sec.
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 16 to 21 knots
Seas: SSE 5 feet at 5 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NNW 14 to 20 knots
Seas: ESE 6 feet at 9 sec.
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNE 17 to 22 knots
Seas: ESE 6 feet at 11 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNE 19 to 26 knots
Seas: NE 8 feet at 6 sec.
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NNE 14 to 20 knots
Seas: ESE 8 feet at 11 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NNE 14 to 19 knots
Seas: ESE 7 feet at 10 sec.
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NNE 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 7 feet at 11 sec.
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: N 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 7 feet at 11 sec.

Sea Surface Temperatures


NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather

[overbite]

That is a lot to absorb   Not to mention the time it took for you to do it all. Thanks from me its a lot to absorb.
I dub YOU Uncle Gruven The weather man.
Remember this one. Bill

[Pfishingruven]

That is a lot to absorb   Not to mention the time it took for you to do it all. Thanks from me its a lot to absorb.
I dub YOU Uncle Gruven The weather man.
Remember this one. Bill

Thanks !

[Pfishingruven]

Small Craft Advisory still in effect through tonight for Sandy Hook through Fenwick Island, DE including Delaware Bay.

Small Craft Advisory
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1103 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ450-451-160415-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
1103 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.THIS AFTERNOON...NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO
5 FT.
.FRI...N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO
5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS
4 TO 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO
6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS
5 TO 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
6 TO 8 FT. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
.MON...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.

$$


Small Craft Advisory
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
246 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012

ANZ450>455-152200-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-121116T1100Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
246 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.

* SEAS...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THOSE RANGES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING A
SMALL VESSEL... SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

&&

$$