NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition Jan 14-18, 2013

[Pfishingruven]

A very unsettled weather pattern this week, with the return of seasonable temperatures and some precipitation through the middle of the week.  Through Wednesday, there is a moderate chance of rain or wintry mix, even some snow showers for northern and western NJ and bordering PA.  High temperatures will start in the upper 50's on Monday and then dropping to the mid and low 40's by Tuesday through the end of the week.  Overnight lows will drop down into the low 30's and upper 20's with freezing for most of the week.  Water conditions will vary throughout the week by location.  Monday will likely have Small Craft Advisories with winds to 25 knots and seas 4-5 feet for all inshore to offshore waters.  Tuesday and Wednesday waters conditions are rated good for all locations, however, Small Craft Advisories could begin sometime Wednesday Evening and continue through Friday Morning.  Offshore will see hazardous conditions with winds to 35 knots and seas 6-7 feet.  Inshore to midshore will see winds to 30 knots and seas 3-5 feet.  Friday will begin the transition back to good conditions and winds below Small Craft Advisory levels.  Surf conditions will be normal for most of the week with 0-2 and 1-2 foot wave heights. Wednesday into Thursday could see some higher waves to 3-5 feet with gusty winds from the west.

A warm front will attempt to move across the area from the south Sunday Night into early Monday.  By Monday Morning a cold front will slowly cross the region from the northwest.  Waves of low pressure will form along the frontal boundary as it slowly drops southward through the middle of the week.  On Thursday, weak high pressure will briefly build into the area.  Cold fronts will move across the region on late Thursday and again on the weekend.

Monday

Sky:  Mostly cloudy with areas of patchy, dense fog   
Precipitation:  60% chance of rain showers during the day, 70% chance of rain/wintry mix/snow showers at night
High:  Upper 50's
Low:  Mid 30's
Sunrise: 7:17am
Sunset: 4:54pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Very good
Weather2Hunt.com- 47/50

Tuesday
Sky:  Cloudy
Precipitation:  40% chance of rain/wintry mix during the day, 60% chance of rain/wintry mix at night
Temperatures
High:  Low 40's
Low:  Mid 30’s
Sunrise: 7:16am
Sunset: 4:55pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Poor
Weather2Hunt.com- 37/50

Wednesday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  40% chance of rain/wintry mix during the day, 0% to slight chance during the night
Temperatures
High:  Mid 40's
Low:  Low 30’s
Sunrise: 7:16am
Sunset: 4:56pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Poor
Weather2Hunt.com- 37/50

Thursday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance
Temperatures
High:  Mid 40’s
Low:  Upper 20's
Sunrise: 7:15am
Sunset: 4:57pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Poor
Weather2Hunt.com- 33/50

Friday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance Temperatures
High:  Low 40's
Low:  Upper 20's
Sunrise: 7:15am
Sunset: 4:58pm
First Qtr: 6:46pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Poor
Weather2Hunt-  30/50

Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Saturday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts
Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  Unavailable (Primary and Backup Buoys damaged by Sandy)
Monday Morning
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, visibility 1-3 nm due to fog
Monday  Afternoon
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots becoming N 5-10 knots at night
Seas:  1-2 feet becoming 1 foot or less
Tuesday Morning
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, visibility 1-3 nm
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots becoming N 5 knots at night
Seas:  1 foot or less
Wednesday Morning
Wind:  NE 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Wed Afternoon
Wind:  SW 5 knots becoming 10 knots at night
Seas:  1 foot or less
Thursday Morning
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Friday Morning
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Friday Afternoon
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)
                             



Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  46F
Monday Morning
Winds: WSW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: S 3 feet at 5 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: NW 12 to 17 knots
Seas: S 2 feet at 6 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: N 7 to 10 knots
Seas: SE 1 feet at 5 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: N 4 to 5 knots
Seas: E 1 feet at 12 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WNW 2 to 3 knots
Seas: E 1 feet at 11 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 5 to 7 knots
Seas: E 1 feet at 10 sec.
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: W 14 to 19 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 20 to 27 knots
Seas: W 3 feet at 3 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: NW 13 to 18 knots
Seas: N 2 feet at 4 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 8 to 11 knots
Seas: N 1 feet at 4 sec.

Manasquan Inlet Tides





Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  44F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 16 to 21 knots
Seas: S 4 feet at 5 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: NW 13 to 18 knots
Seas: S 3 feet at 5 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NNE 11 to 15 knots
Seas: ENE 2 feet at 4 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: NNE 8 to 11 knots
Seas: E 2 feet at 13 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: ENE 7 to 9 knots
Seas: E 2 feet at 11 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: N 2 to 2 knots
Seas: E 2 feet at 11 sec.
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 18 to 24 knots
Seas: WNW 3 feet at 4 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 19 to 25 knots
Seas: WNW 3 feet at 4 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: NNW 13 to 18 knots
Seas: NNW 2 feet at 4 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: NW 10 to 13 knots
Seas: NNW 2 feet at 3 sec.

Cape May (Ocean) Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  40F
Monday Morning
Wind:  SW 10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, visibility 1-3 nm
Monday Afternoon
Wind:  NW 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots becoming N 10 knots at night
Seas:  2-3 feet becoming 1-2 feet
Tuesday Morning
Wind:   NE 10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind:   NE 10 knots becoming  5-10 knots at night
Seas:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Morning
Wind:  N 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Wed Afternoon
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet becoming 2-3 feet at night
Thursday Morning
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Friday Morning
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Friday Afternoon
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots becoming W at night
Seas:  1-2 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  45F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 16 to 22 knots
Seas: SW 5 feet at 6 sec.
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 17 to 22 knots
Seas: SW 5 feet at 6 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NNE 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ENE 3 feet at 5 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: NNE 5 to 7 knots
Seas: ENE 2 feet at 11 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: ENE 7 to 10 knots
Seas: ENE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 1 to 1 knots
Seas: ENE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: WNW 13 to 18 knots
Seas: WNW 5 feet at 5 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: W 13 to 18 knots
Seas: S 4 feet at 7 sec.
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNW 18 to 25 knots
Seas: NW 4 feet at 5 sec.
Friday Afternoon   
Winds: NNW 10 to 14 knots
Seas: NNW 3 feet at 4 sec.

Sea Surface Temperatures



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

Some areas in Northwestern NJ and bordering PA could see some accumulation of snow from snow showers later this evening and into the night.  Accumulation totals will be less than 0.5 inches, however it is enough to create hazardous road conditions.

Areas from northwester Burlington County and northern Ocean County and to the north and northwest could see snow accumulation on Tuesday into Wednesday from snow showers.  Anywhere from a dusting upwards of 1.4 inches are forecast for central and north western NJ.

Be safe!

Monday Snowfall Totals



Tuesday Snowfall Totals

[Pfishingruven]

Precipitation is moving into the area already.  Tonight will bring a scattered wintry mix/sleet for Northwestern NJ where temperatures could get close to or below freezing, while the rest of the area temperatures will remain well above freezing and will only see rain.  This precipitation is ahead of the low, but associated with the same system that will push northeast over the next 12-36 hours.

Current Radar



The most recent forecast from NWS PHI/Mount Holly has brought the Low more north and west from its previous track, essentially making this a weak, off the coast Nor'Easter.  This will bring more moisture to our area and more accumulating snow and wintry mix to areas north of I80.  Areas north of I80 could see 3-5 inches, even locally more.  Areas between I80 and I78 will likely see a mix of snow and sleet, while areas south of I78 will see a wintry mix of mostly sleet or even just rain.  Coastal areas will see winds in excess of 20 knots, higher seas, rough surf and even minimal coastal flooding.

Current Weather & Radar



Storm Track



Tuesday Snowfall Totals



Wednesday Snowfall Totals



Wednesday Ice Potential

[Hunter 2]

Thanks.

[Scott G.]

 

[Ms Fish]

THANKS! Sounds like a chillly one!

[Pfishingruven]

The NWS has made minor adjustments to the forecast based on current conditions.  There are not many changes.  A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Sussex, Warren and Morris Counties.  Snowfall totals have been adjusted to 2-4 inches for these areas.  Other areas will see a wintry mix to a few inches with southern and coastal areas just receiving rain.  Timing will be precipitation beginning later tonight with the bulk of the accumulation falling by Wednesday Afternoon.  Wednesday day into Thursday Morning could produce some more flurries or mix with no more than a inch of accumulation for the Northwestern Counties.  Temperatures will hover around the freezing mark in these areas with the rest of NJ well above freezing.  However, overnight temperatures will likely drop into the mid to upper 20's so even areas that only receive rain could have icing conditions after dark.  Keep warm, even colder weather in the future.

Be safe

Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 AM EST TUE JAN 15 2013

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-152200-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.130116T0300Z-130116T1600Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON
338 AM EST TUE JAN 15 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY OF EASTERN
  PENNSYLVANIA AMD NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...ALONG WITH
  LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OF ICE.

* TIMING...SNOW AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE THIS
  EVENING...AND BECOME STEADIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW AND SLEET
  WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS
  THAT ARE NOT TREATED AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST UP TO 5 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...REDUCED TO AROUND ONE HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

Current Radar



Storm Track



Tuesday - Wednesday Snow Totals



Tuesday - Wednesday Ice Totals



Wednesday - Thursday Snow Totals



Wednesday - Thursday Ice Totals



Compilation Graphic from NWS Eastern Region HQ

[Pfishingruven]

Precipitation is beginning to move into the area.  Most of it is not reaching the ground yet.  No changes from this morning's update.

Below is current radar.  The blue line snow/rain line.  Areas north of this will see snow/mix, along the line and south will see a wintry mix while from Middlesex County south will see mostly rain.  This will continue throughout the night into the early morning commute.  It looks like all of the areas of snow could switch over to rain by tomorrow morning.

Be safe and careful on the roads.  Road conditions will be the biggest threat from this storm.

[Pfishingruven]

The NWS PHI/Mount Holly has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Ocean, Cumberland, Atlantic, Cape May & Southeastern Burlington Counties for Thursday Evening into Thursday overnight.

Low pressure has formed along the same cold front and will move out just along the coast bringing a decent amount of moisture to Southern & Coastal NJ in the form of snow.  This broad area of low pressure is not a typical winter storm or nor'easter, as it will not be very organized.  It will bring a good amount of moisture, which due to cold air will fall in the form of snow.  Track will greatly affect accumulation totals and areas that see snow.  Currently, the bulk of the system is staying offshore, however, a couple 100 miles west or north could bring more of an impact to the area, while a farther south or east track could mean less snow.  For now, the forecast is calling for 2-6 inches Thursday Evening into Thursday Overnight.  This timing could change as well, by 12-18 hours or so.  

I will update this as I get information.

Be safe!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1209 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013

NJZ020>027-170115-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0001.130117T2300Z-130118T1000Z/
OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST
1209 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL 2 TO 6 INCHES.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
  BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW
  RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

* VISIBILITIES...REDUCED TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

MEOLA/DRAG

Thursday - Friday Snowfall Totals



Models Showing System

[Pfishingruven]

NWS PHI Weather Briefing

[Pfishingruven]

...And like that, they have cancelled the Winter Storm Watch for Southern & Coastal Counties.  Like I alluded to in yesterday's update, there was a big potential for this storm to go either way and bust a forecast one way or another.  It appears, overnight, model guidance and tracking of the system will take it farther south and east, away from the coast.  This means less accumulation for the area.

There is currently a Winter Weather Advisory for Cumberland, Cape May & Atlantic Counties for 1-4 inches of snow with southeastern Burlington and Ocean forecast to only receive a coating, if that.  All areas still need to be ready.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

NJZ021>025-172200-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.130117T2300Z-130118T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.130117T2300Z-130118T0900Z/
CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY
339 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE
  HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS CAPE MAY COUNTY.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY

* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN
  CHANGE TO SNOW THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL FALL WITH VARYING
  INTENSITY THIS EVENING...TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW
  RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
  FREEZING FRIDAY MORNING AND ANY STANDING WATER OR SLUSH WILL
  FREEZE.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

Thursday - Friday Snow Totals