NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Weekend Edition Feb 16-17, 2013

[Pfishingruven]

Saturday will bring a chance of another coastal storm bringing rain and snow to the area.  Sunday will have a return of blustery conditions; dry, but cold and windy with mostly sunny and clear skies.  Saturday's high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30's with lows down into the low 20's.  Sunday's high temperatures will not even reach the freezing mark with overnight lows down into the mid to upper teens.  Water conditions will not improve much into the weekend with most areas cautious to hazardous. There may be a slight time from Friday Evening into Saturday Morning where winds and seas will diminish below advisory levels, however by Saturday Afternoon Small Craft Advisories are likely with winds to 25+ knots and seas 4-5 feet.  Sunday could see Gale Force gusts with seas 5-6 feet.  Surf conditions will be poor with high, rough surf conditions with waves 4-6 feet and winds predominantly out of the NE up to 25 knots with gusts to Gale Force.

The snow situation for the weekend involves another coastal low on Saturday.  This would be an all day Saturday event.  Models, as usual do not agree, nor come to a consensus on track, intensity or snowfall amounts.  Cold air should already be in place, the question will be how much moisture gets to land from the system out at sea.  If the track brings it closer we will get more precipitation.  Farther out to sea, will bring less moisture.  A lot will rely on intensification as well.  I will tell you, that these lows love the warmer ocean temperatures and previous systems have rapidly intensified as soon as they got out over the ocean.  The low that created the blizzard for New England dropped 27.5mb in pressure in less than 24 hours (bombogenesis) last week.  This track is very dependent on high pressure moving in over the south and the strength of the trough/cold front moving through.  The NWS is sticking with a general 1-2 and 2-4 inches of snow across most of the state as of tonight, but have very low confidence in this forecast.  Models have trended snowier, with some of the latest runs showing 12+ inches statewide.  This is not likely to verify, however, I wouldn't be surprised to see an increase in snowfall total forecasts if the models continue with this trend.  Coastal areas should not have any major effects, unless this system becomes very strong and tracks very close to the coast.  Wind chills during and behind this storm will drop into the single digits approaching event he zero mark!

NWS PHI Briefing #1 Presidents' Weekend Winter Storm

A cold front will sweep through the Mid Atlantic States on Friday Night while its associated low pressure system moves across southeastern Canada.  A surface wave (of low pressure) will form and move close by the coast on Saturday before heading off towards the northeast on Sunday.

Saturday
Sky:  Cloudy
Precipitation:  Snow/rain likely
Temperatures
High:  Mid to upper 30's
Low:   Low 20's
Sunrise: 6:48am
Sunset: 5:33pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Poor
Weather2Hunt.com- 37/50

Sunday
Sky:  Mostly sunny and mostly clear
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance
Temperatures
High:  Low 30's
Low:  Mid to upper teens
Sunrise: 6:47am
Sunset: 5:34pm
First Qtr: 3:32pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Poor
Weather2Hunt.com- 23/50

Friday Night Surface Analysis



Saturday Surface Analysis



Sunday Surface Analysis




Friday Night - Monday Precipitation Total



Storm Tracks




Storm Track Ensembles
**Shows all of the models with different track possibilities.  Dots show all the different possible track locations!



Saturday Snowfall Totals




Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts
Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature: 41°F
Saturday Morning
Wind:  N 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, visibility less than 1-3 nm
Saturday  Afternoon
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  N 10-15 knots becoming NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots late afternoon
Seas:  1-2 feet, visibility less than 1-3 nm
Sunday Morning
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Sunday Afternoon
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots becoming W 10-15 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  41°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: N 11 to 14 knots
Seas: SE 2 feet at 7 sec.
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 10 to 14 knots
Seas: SE 2 feet at 6 sec.
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 17 to 23 knots
Seas: NE 3 feet at 5 sec.
Sunday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 20 to 27 knots
Seas: N 3 feet at 4 sec.

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  39°F
Saturday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNE 17 to 22 knots
Seas: NNE 3 feet at 4 sec.
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: N 14 to 19 knots
Seas: ENE 3 feet at 5 sec.
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 20 to 27 knots
Seas: ENE 4 feet at 6 sec.
Sunday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 19 to 26 knots
Seas: NW 4 feet at 4 sec.

Cape May (Ocean) Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  37°F
Saturday Morning
Wind:  N 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet 
Saturday Afternoon
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots becoming NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots at night
Seas:  1-2 feet
Sunday Morning
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Sunday Afternoon
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 20-25 knots diminishing 15-20 knots after midnight 
Seas:  2-4 feet

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  42°F
Saturday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNE 15 to 20 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 7 sec.
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: N 17 to 22 knots
Seas: NNE 4 feet at 5 sec.
Sunday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 22 to 29 knots
Seas: NNW 6 feet at 6 sec.
Sunday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 25 to 33 knots
Seas: NW 7 feet at 6 sec.

Sea Surface Temperatures



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperatures 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

NWS PHI & NYC have issued a second Briefings on snow chances starting tonight.  Tonight will bring snow showers with minimum accumulation across the state followed by a coastal low tomorrow afternoon into the night.  This will bring a general 1-3 inches across the state as well.  These will not be any significant events, but will bring cold temperatures and gusty winds, causing wind chills in the single digits!

Be safe and have a good weekend!!

NWS PHI Briefing #2

NWS NYC Briefing