Author Topic: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Weekend Edition Mar 22-26, 2013  (Read 1544 times)

Offline Pfishingruven

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This is a 4 Day Outlook, instead of just the weekend.  I will be away this weekend, so the Week Outlook will be delayed until Monday.  The weekend will start out dry and turn wet by Sunday Night.  Precipitation chances will increase throughout the day on Sunday.  By Sunday Night there is a high chance that a strong coastal storm will affect the region bringing rain and/or snow through Monday Day followed by rain for Monday Night.  The track of this storm is not agreed upon by all the models, but it looks like there will be some type of involvement of some or all of the area.  With this coastal storm could come coastal flooding as well.  By Tuesday, the system should be moved out and dry, sunny conditions will return.  Temperatures will be below normal for this time of year by 5-10 degrees or so.  Highs will only reach mid to upper 40's with lows still in the low 30's and upper 20's.  Wind chills over the next couple of days will make it feel like the low 30's to upper 20's during the day as well.  Water conditions will subside going into Saturday with some wind gusts around 20 knots, however Small Craft Advisories will likely be dropped by Saturday late morning or early afternoon.  Conditions are rated good for just about all locations through Sunday Night.  By Sunday Night effects of the coastal storm are likely with SCA's, high winds and seas through Tuesday.  The models have not picked up on the storm and are not reflected in the forecast.  I would expect, at minimum, Small Craft Advisories for Sunday Night through Tuesday Afternoon will gusty winds and elevated seas.  Surf conditions will be normal through Sunday as well, with 0-2 and 1-2 wave heights with some moderate to gusty winds out of the NW mostly.  Surf conditions by Sunday Night through Tuesday will deteriorate with higher, rough surf in the 4-6 range and higher with gusty winds in excess of 25 knots.

I will keep you updated on any major changes with this upcoming storm.

High pressure centered over central Canada will build south and spread into the region through the weekend.  By Sunday a complex low pressure system will be organizing to our south and west, eventually becoming a stronger coastal low Sunday Night into Monday.  This low will track northeast and then out to sea late Monday Night into Tuesday, followed by high pressure.

Saturday
Sky:  Sunny and mostly clear
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance
Temperatures
High:  Upper 40's
Low:   Upper 20's
Sunrise: 6:55am
Sunset: 7:11pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Fair
Weather2Hunt.com- 37/50

Sunday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming cloudy
Precipitation:  20% chance of rain/snow (mix) during the day after 2pm, 50% chance rain/snow (mix) at night
Temperatures
High:   Mid 40's
Low:   Mid 30's
Sunrise: 6:54am
Sunset: 7:12pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Poor
Weather2Hunt.com- 43/50

Monday
Sky:  Cloudy becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  60% chance of rain/snow (mix) during the day, 30% chance of rain at night
Temperatures
High:  Low to mid 40's
Low:  Low 30's
Sunrise: 6:52am
Sunset: 7:13pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Good
Weather2Hunt.com- 37/50

Tuesday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance
Temperatures
High:  Mid 40's
Low:  Low to mid 30's
Sunrise: 6:50am
Sunset: 7:14pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Fair
Weather2Hunt.com- 37/50

Friday Night Surface Analysis



Saturday Surface Analysis



Sunday Surface Analysis



Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis




Friday Night - Wednesday Precipitation Total



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts
Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature: 40°F
Saturday
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Sunday
Wind:  NW 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots becoming NE in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Sunday Night
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less becoming 1-2 feet after midnight
Monday
Wind:  NE 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots diminishing 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet, visibility 1-3 nm
Tuesday
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet diminishing 1 foot or less in afternoon
Tuesday Night
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  40°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: WNW 14 to 18 knots
Seas: E 2 feet at 10 sec.
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 13 to 18 knots
Seas: E 2 feet at 10 sec.
Sunday Morning
Winds: WNW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: NW 1 feet at 3 sec.
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 4 to 6 knots
Seas: NNE 1 feet at 3 sec.
Monday Morning
Winds: ENE 11 to 14 knots
Seas: ENE 2 feet at 3 sec.
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 16 to 22 knots
Seas: ENE 4 feet at 5 sec.

Tuesday Morning
Winds: NW 8 to 10 knots
Seas: E 4 feet at 7 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: W 7 to 9 knots
Seas: E 3 feet at 7 sec.

Manasquan Inlet Tides


 

Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  40°F
Saturday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WNW 15 to 20 knots
Seas: WNW 2 feet at 3 sec.
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 12 to 17 knots
Seas: E 2 feet at 10 sec.
Sunday Morning
Winds: NW 10 to 14 knots
Seas: N 2 feet at 3 sec.
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: N 3 to 4 knots
Seas: NE 1 feet at 4 sec.
Monday Morning
Winds: ENE 12 to 16 knots
Seas: E 2 feet at 4 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: NE 12 to 16 knots
Seas: E 3 feet at 4 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NW 9 to 12 knots
Seas: E 4 feet at 7 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: W 7 to 9 knots
Seas: ENE 3 feet at 7 sec.


Cape May (Ocean) Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  40°F
Saturday
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2 feet 
Saturday Night
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet 
Sunday
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Sunday Night
Wind:  E 5-10 knots increasing 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet
Monday
Wind:  N 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3
Tuesday
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
 

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  40°F
Saturday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 19 to 25 knots
Seas: W 5 feet at 5 sec.
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 16 to 22 knots
Seas: WNW 4 feet at 5 sec.
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 15 to 21 knots
Seas: NW 4 feet at 5 sec.

Sunday Afternoon
Winds: NW 8 to 11 knots
Seas: NW 2 feet at 4 sec.
Monday Morning
Winds: ENE 11 to 15 knots
Seas: ENE 2 feet at 3 sec.
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 18 to 25 knots
Seas: NE 5 feet at 5 sec.

Tuesday Morning
Winds: NNW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: E 6 feet at 7 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 10 to 13 knots
Seas: ESE 5 feet at 8 sec.

Sea Surface Temperatures


   
NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperatures 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop





Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!


*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)


Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Weekend Edition Mar 22-26, 2013
« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2013, 07:32:55 PM »
The NWS PHI has issued a Weather Briefing for the coastal storm on Sunday Night through Monday. Right now this forecast is off of the 50% Ensembles of the models. This storm could be a bust or it has the potential to be stronger than the last one. For now,  low will begin influencing the area later Sunday into Sunday Night with rain for areas South and East of I-95 and snow for areas North and West. Precipitation amounts are listed in the briefing. Areas along the coast could see some minor flooding with higher lunar tides right now. Total storm surge is around 7 1/2 feet making that 1-3 feet above MHHW (high tide). The area will see gustier winds and likely SCA's and even Gale Warnings.

As of right now this will be minor to moderate event.

Be safe!

NWS Weather Briefing
« Last Edit: March 23, 2013, 07:33:25 PM by Pfishingruven »


Offline Reel McCoy

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Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Weekend Edition Mar 22-26, 2013
« Reply #2 on: March 24, 2013, 07:41:46 AM »
Thanks  t^
22' Grady-White Reel McCoy II

Offline Hotrod

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Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Weekend Edition Mar 22-26, 2013
« Reply #3 on: March 24, 2013, 11:36:22 AM »
 t^




Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Weekend Edition Mar 22-26, 2013
« Reply #4 on: March 24, 2013, 04:31:17 PM »
NWS has issued Winter Storm Warnings(pink) and Winter Weather Advisories(purple) for most counties except extreme Northwestern NJ. Snowfall totals have been increased as well this afternoon. Right now all areas of NJ will see at least 2 inches of snow.

I will update later tonight. Sorry for the brevity, but I am working off my phone!

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/phi.png/

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/StormTotalSnowWebFcst.png

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/StormTotalPrecip/StormTotalSnowFcst.png
« Last Edit: March 24, 2013, 04:36:49 PM by Pfishingruven »

 

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