NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition May 6-10, 2013

[Pfishingruven]

It is going to be a wet week from this point forward.  Today had the lowest chances of rain.  Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday Night will have the greatest chances of rain with the possibility of some thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday, some even being strong to severe.  Rain could be heavy at times with 3-4 inches of rain possible this week over parts of the state.  Cloudy skies will definitely prevail for most of the week.  High temperatures will be in the upper 60's into the mid 70's with overnight lows only down into the 50's.  Water conditions will vary by location and day all week.  A continued onshore flow through Thursday will likely keep Small Craft Advisories posted with winds steady at 15 knots or greater out of the east and seas inshore of 4-5 feet with Midshore to Offshore seeing 5-7 feet.  Winds on Wednesday will be in excess of 25 knots with seas of 5-6 feet. Surf conditions will be moderate to elevated statewide with easterly winds creating rough and high surf conditions.  Water temperatures are near 60°F and greater for bays and rivers, however ocean waters have dropped off a few degrees into the lower and mid 50's due to upwelling of colder waters and a southern swell.

A look ahead to the weekend will have moderate chances of rain (50%-60%) through Sunday Night.  Temperatures will remain the same in the upper 60's or low 70's with 50's overnight.  Water conditions are rated good right now for all locations, however with a passing low/cold front, gustier winds are likely.

High pressure system south of the Canadian Maritimes will slowly recede farther offshore Monday Night and Tuesday.  A broad area of low pressure over the Appalachians will drift to the northeast passing slowly over the region on Wednesday and Thursday.  A warm front and new area of low pressure will organize over the Mid Atlantic later Friday into Saturday.

Monday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  20% chance of rain tonight
Temperatures
High:   
Low:   Low 50's
Sunrise: 5:51am
Sunset: 7:55pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-
Weather2Hunt.com- 40/50

Tuesday
Sky:  Cloudy
Precipitation:  30% chance of rain during the day, 80% chance of rain at night
Temperatures
High:   Upper 60's
Low:   Mid 50's
Sunrise: 5:50am
Sunset: 7:56pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-   Very Good
Weather2Hunt.com-  40/50

Wednesday
Sky:  Cloudy becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  80% chance of rain/thunderstorms during the day, 50% chance of rain/thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:   Upper 60's
Low:   Mid 50's
Sunrise: 5:48am
Sunset: 7:57pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Fair
Weather2Hunt.com- 37/50

Thursday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  50% chance of rain/thunderstorms during the day, 80% chance of rain/thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:   Low 70's
Low:   Mid 50's
Sunrise: 5:47am
Sunset: 7:58pm
New Moon: 8:30pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Very Good
Weather2Hunt.com- 40/50

Friday
Sky:   Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  30% chance of rain/thunderstorms during the day, 50% chance of rain/thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:   Mid 70's
Low:   Mid 50's
Sunrise: 5:46am
Sunset: 7:59pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Excellent
Weather2Hunt-  43/50

Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  59°F
Monday
Wind:   
Seas:   
Monday Night
Wind:   E 5-10 knots becoming NE after midnight
Seas:   1 foot or less, patchy fog after midnight visibility 1-3 nm
Tuesday
Wind:   SE 5-10 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less, patchy fog in the morning visibility 1-3 nm
[b]Tuesday Night[/b]
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:   E 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots late
Seas:   1-2 feet
Wednesday
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  E 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1-2 feet, areas of fog visibility 1-3 nm
Wednesday Night
Wind:   SE 10-15 knots with diminishing 5-10 knots in the late evening
Seas:   1-2 feet early then 1 foot or less, patchy fog visibility 1-3 nm
Thursday
Wind:   SE 5-10 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less
Thursday Night
Wind:   S 5-10 knots becoming SW after midnight
Seas:   1 foot or less
Friday
Wind:   SW 5 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less
Friday Night
Wind:  S 5 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)
                             



Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  50°F
Monday Morning
Winds:
Seas:
Monday Afternoon
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: E 5-10 knots
Seas: E 4-5 feet at 11 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds: ENE 10 to 14 knots
Seas: E 3 feet at 10 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: E 8 to 11 knots
Seas: E 3 feet at 9 seconds
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: E 15 to 20 knots
Seas: ESE 5 feet at 7 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SE 9 to 13 knots
Seas: ESE 5 feet at 7 seconds
Thursday Morning
Winds: E 6 to 8 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 8 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SE 8 to 11 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 8 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: NW 4 to 5 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 5 to 7 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  53°F
Monday Morning
Winds:
Seas:
Monday Afternoon
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: E 10-15 knots
Seas: E 4-6 feet at 11 seconds
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: E 15 to 20 knots
Seas: E 5 feet at 10 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 17 to 24 knots
Seas: ESE 5 feet at 5 seconds
Wednesday Morning
Winds: ESE 3 to 3 knots
Seas: SE 5 feet at 7 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: S 10 to 14 knots
Seas: SE 5 feet at 8 seconds
Thursday Morning
Winds: S 7 to 9 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 8 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SW 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: WNW 4 to 6 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 8 to 11 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds

Cape May (Ocean) Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  60°F
Monday
Wind: 
Seas:   
Monday Night
Wind:   E 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet, visibility 1-3 nm
Tuesday
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  E 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  E 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet, visibility 1-3 nm
Wednesday
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, visibility 1-3 nm
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SE 5 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, visibility 1-3 nm
Thursday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, visibility 1-3 nm
Thursday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, visibility 1-3 nm
Friday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  48°F
Monday Morning
Winds:
Seas:
Monday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 10-20 knots
Seas: E 4-7 feet at 10 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds: ENE 9 to 12 knots
Seas: E 4 feet at 10 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 9 to 12 knots
Seas: E 4 feet at 9 seconds
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ESE 19 to 25 knots
Seas: SSE 7 feet at 8 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: S 11 to 15 knots
Seas: SSE 7 feet at 8 seconds
Thursday Morning
Winds: SSE 4 to 6 knots
Seas: SE 5 feet at 8 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SE 6 to 9 knots
Seas: SE 5 feet at 8 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: SW 9 to 12 knots
Seas: SE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSW 14 to 19 knots
Seas: SE 4 feet at 7 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures


NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[fluke - u]

 ..Weather is shooting at my days off....

[Pfishingruven]

Outlook is complete and up to date!  Sorry for the delay...I am fighting a sinus infection and this is the last week of classes.

[Hunter 2]

Thanks,  nice graphs and tide charts. 

[Pfishingruven]

Thanks,  nice graphs and tide charts. 

Thanks!  Those are right off of NOAA's Tides & Currents.

[Pfishingruven]

You could see some isolated and scattered rain/showers and even a thunderstorm throughout the afternoon into the evening.  These showers will come from the southeast...yes from the east.  We are on the northeast side of an low pressure system (an upper level cut off low) that is slowly moving northeast.  This low has been hanging out in the US since last week, in the Central Plains and was responsible for the record breaking May snowfall across Colorado, Kansas and Oklahoma.  It was also responsible for some severe weather.  As this storm moves northeast, we will see more widespread rain and even a thunderstorm, with storms coming out of the southwest moving northeast.

Current Conditions

Counter Clockwise rotation around the center of the low pressure, which being on the northeast side of the low is bringing rain out of the southeast.



Current NJ Radar

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has issued a very slight risk of strong to severe thunderstorms tonight arriving ahead of a cold and warm frontal boundary which is out ahead of a low.  With daytime heating causing increased instability, as rains move in later tonight into early Saturday Morning, organized squall lines could bring some wind and hail threats.  Models are timing this after 10PM at the earliest, however an isolated or scattered shower/thunderstorm before that is possible as well.  With any heavy rain, flash flooding and flooding of areas with poor drainage is possible.  Areas in northeastern NJ around the NYC area and even parts of Northern and Central NJ could experience flash flooding with less than 2 inches of rain.

The good news is that for the majority of today, skies will be clear and sunny with temperatures up in the 70's.  Water conditions are good as well statewide with 5-10 knot winds out of the WNW and seas around 3 feet at 7-8 seconds.

Be safe and have a great day!


SPC Risk for Friday



Current Radar, Satellite and Surface Map



Flash Flood Guidance 1 & 3 Hours

[Pfishingruven]

The low is still out over the Ohio, but ahead of the fronts storms are squall lines are already forming in western and southern PA.  These will move in during the next few hours and continue through the overnight.