NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekend Edition: July 13-14, 2013

[Pfishingruven]

It feels like Groundhog’s Day, the movie, as we repeat the same weather pattern over and over again.  This weekend will be a transitional period with a slightly unsettled weather pattern.  We are transitioning between wet conditions and a cold front back to a retrograding Bermuda High pushing westward again and bringing a southerly flow of heat and humidity.  The weekend looks decent and a fairly typical summer weekend for NJ for weather and water conditions.  Saturday will start off cloudy with a gradual clearing of clouds making a mix of clouds and sun with chances of scattered and isolated showers and thunderstorms.  These chances of rain and storms are low and anything that pops up or moves in should be over rather quickly.  These are short duration storms, not an all day event.  Of course, any thunderstorms could be strong to severe bringing damaging winds, dangerous lightning and heavy rains.  So, don’t cancel your plans, but be alert for any changing weather conditions.  Temperatures will be cooler and less humid on Saturday as well with highs inland in the mid 80’s and upper 70’s to low 80’s along/on the water.  Overnight lows will be in the upper 60’s to low 70’s.  Sunday clouds will continue to clear becoming mostly sunny.  The heat and humidity will begin its return with high temperatures in the upper 80’s inland and low to mid 80’s along/on the water.  Overnight lows only in the low 70’s again.  With the heat and humidity returning there is always a chance of a scattered or isolated showers or thunderstorms, however these chances are even lower than Saturday’s chances.  Water conditions are rated good for all locations this weekend.  Most places will get a small break from a full on southerly flow, but only briefly.  Saturday will be windier than Sunday, however seas look about the same on both days.  Water temperatures are holding the same with rivers and bays in the upper 70’s to low 80’s, Inshore and Midshore to Offshore ocean waters ranging from the upper 60’s to upper 70’s and surf temperatures still in the upper 50’s to upper 60’s depending on location and upwelling.  Some areas may get a brief reprieve from the upwelling, but only helping with those surf temperatures a little.  Surf and beach conditions look good this weekend with Low to Moderate Risk of Rip Currents and wave heights 2-3 feet decreasing to 1-2 feet with a 2-3 foot south swell at 7-8 seconds.  UV Index will be Very High this weekend.

The cold front that moved through the area on Thursday will be stalled just south and east of the Region on Friday before it is pushed back westward by the very strong and large ridge of Bermuda High Pressure centered over the Atlantic.  As the front is pushed westward it will dissipate, but not before bringing some chances of rain to the area.  High Pressure will then build across to the north before being absorbed by the Bermuda High which will dominate the region all next week.  This will bring a southerly flow with high temperatures and humidity.

So far next week is looking hazy, hot and humid with dry conditions and inland high temperatures in the upper 80’s to mid 90’s with heat indices into the upper 90’s and 100’s.  Water temperatures along/on the water will be in the low to mid 80’s with overnight lows for all locations in the low 70’s.  With the heat and humidity scattered or isolated showers and thunderstorms are always possible and even severe weather.  Water conditions look good for all locations as well with a break in the southerly flow a couple of times during the week.  Surf and beach conditions look good as well with Low to Moderate Risks of rip currents and low to moderate wave heights at 1-2 and 2-3 feet.  UV Index will be Very High all week.  There is a chance at some point next week that the tropical remnants of Chantal make their way into the area.  This is not reflected in the forecast yet, so next week is subject to change based on when and where this system affects the area.

The remnants of Chantal are still moving NW with a 30% chance of redevelopment with the models taking it into Georgia or the Carolinas.

Saturday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  30% chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms during the day, 20% chance of scattered or isolated showers or thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:   Mid 80's inland, Low 80's along the coast, Upper 70's to low 80's on the water
Low:  Upper 60’s to low 70's
UV Index:  11/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:39am
Sunset: 8:25pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Good

Sunday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance of scattered or isolated showers and thunderstorms
Temperatures
High:   Mid 80's inland, Low 80's along the coast, Upper 70's to low 80's on the water
Low:  Low 70's
UV Index:  9/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:39am
Sunset: 8:25pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Excellent

Friday Night Surface Analysis



Saturday Surface Analysis



Sunday Surface Analysis



Friday - Monday Precipitation Total




Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts
Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature: 78°F
Saturday
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots becoming SE in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots diminishing to 5 knots late
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Sunday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Sunday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  73°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: WNW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: W 3 to 5 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: SW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides


 ]

Barnegat Bay at Island Beach State Park
Water Temperature:  82°F
Saturday
Wind:  Variable, then E 5-6 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  SSE 5-6 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Sunday
Wind:  Variable then SSE 5-8 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 foot
Sunday Night
Wind:  SSW 5-8 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 foot

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  66°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: NNW 5 to 6 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: E 5 to 8 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: SW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: S 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  81°F
Saturday
Wind:  E 5 knots increasing to 5-10 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  74°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: WSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  S 5 feet at 7 seconds
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 7 seconds
Sunday Morning
Winds: W 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 7 seconds
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 6 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperatures 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)

   

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Reel McCoy]

Thanks, Matt 

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  Mostly cloudy this morning with some scattered showers across the state.  The sun is trying to peak through in places.  It will be mostly cloudy today, but cloud should start clearing out by the later afternoon into the overnight.  Coastal areas are seeing some light fog this morning, especially right along the beaches.  There is a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms today with a generalized risk of severe weather.  Showers and thunderstorms are coming out of the south/south-southeast moving north/north-northwest and are moving very quickly.  This is good and bad...any storms that come into the area will appear quickly and not give much notice, however, they will also move off quickly.  With the Bermuda High Pressure already backing the stalled front back over the state before it dissipates, the hot and humid air is already returning!  High temperatures inland will be in the mid to upper 80's with highs along/on the water in the low 80's.  Overnight lows will be in the low 70's.  I am not sure it will be very noticeable the change in humidity for most, as the Bermuda High has retrograded southwest a little earlier than forecast.  Any showers and thunderstorms should be cleared out by tonight, leaving clear skies.

Water conditions are rated good for all locations today.  Small Craft Advisories have been lifted.  Winds are fairly calm this morning and will increase some by this afternoon.  Raritan Bay will have SE winds 5-10 knots changing to south then southwest later with seas 1-2 feet and visibility 1-3 nm with patchy fog.  Barnegat Bay will have S winds 7-10 knots with seas 1 foot or less.  Delaware Bay will have SE winds 5-10 knots increasing 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots changing to the south and diminishing 5-10 knots tonight with seas 1-2 feet and visibility 1-3 nm with patchy fog.  Inshore ocean waters will have SSE winds 5-13 knots changing to south at 10-15 knots in the afternoon with seas 3 feet at 6 seconds.  Midshore to Offshore waters will have SSE winds 12-17 knots diminishing to SSW 10-13 knots in the afternoon with seas 4 feet at 7 seconds.

Surf and beach look good with Low Risk of rip currents and light variable winds this morning with some rougher surf at 1-2 feet.  Winds may increase from the south to 10 mph with wave heights increasing to 3-4 feet with a 3 foot southeast swell at 6 seconds.  UV Index is Very High with 10/15.  Be alert for any quick moving storms from the south/southeast.  If you see storms in the distance and hear thunder, take cover immediately as these storms will be racing north/northeast and will not give you much time to get to safety!

Have a great day and great weekend!

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  Sorry, this is a little late and I am sure most are out already enjoying the beautiful day, but here is a quick update for today's weather.  There was some patchy fog this morning along the coastal and marine areas that has mostly lifted.  There is a mix of sun and clouds with clouds continuing to clear throughout the day.  Sun will prevail and it will be hazy, hot and humid!  High temperatures inland will be in the low to mid 90's with heat indices in the high 90's to 100's.  Highs along/on the water will be much cooler in the upper 70's!  Heat Advisories and Watches have already been issued for urban areas for the upcoming week.  NWS Heat Safety.  If you want to escape the heat, the beach is the place to go.  Overnight lows in the low to mid 70's.  As that Bermuda High Pressure moves back west, a dominant southerly flow will return bring heat and high humidity to the area through next weekend!  This will be the hottest temperatures we have seen so far this Summer and one of the longer stretches.  There is a generalized risk of severe weather.  There is a very low chance of isolated or scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Any storms that move in or popup will move through quickly and be done.  Just be alert for any changing weather.

Water conditions are rated good for all locations with varying winds and direction.  Most areas are seeing a slight reprieve from the southerly flow still, except extreme southern areas are seeing it start to creep back in today.  Raritan Bay will have SW winds changing over to W winds tonight at 5-10 knots with seas 1 foot or less.  Barnegat Bay will have WSW changing to SW winds 5-10 knots with seas 1 foot or less.  Delaware Bay will have S winds changing to SW 5-10 knots with seas 1-2 feet.  Northern Inshore ocean waters will have varying winds from W winds 10-15 knots changing to WNW at 9-12 knots and seas 3 feet at 7 seconds.  Southern Inshore ocean waters will have WNW/SSE at 5 knots changing to WSW/SSE at 5 knots and seas 2-3 feet at 7-9 seconds.  Midshore to Offshore waters will have W winds at 5-10 knots and seas 3 feet at 7 seconds.  Water temperatures will be a little warmer, especially along the immediate coast due to some easterly winds pushing warmer waters in and the south winds subsiding some and letting off of the upwelling.  This will change, though again this week.

Surf and beach looks great with a Low Risk of rip currents and variable calm winds and surf this morning/afternoon.  Winds are currently out of the west predominantly around 5 mph with wave heights at 1-2 feet.  Winds will change to the southwest and vary 5-10 mph with wave heights around 3 feet with a 3 foot southeast swell at 7 seconds.  Surf temperatures are warmer in the mid to upper 60's again for now.  UV Index is Very High at 9/15.  Be alert for any thunderstorms moving in (very low chance this afternoon into evening).

Have a great day!  Stay cool and enjoy the hot and humid, but nice weather.