NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekend Edition: July 20-21, 2013

[Pfishingruven]

The weekend will be start and unsettled weather pattern that will last through next week sometime.  While weather and water conditions will not be stellar, I don’t think it will be a complete washout, either.  Temperatures will be hot to start before the cold front brings some slightly cooler and drier air.  Saturday highs inland will be in the mid to upper 90’s with heat indices in the upper 90’s and 100’s.  Along/on the water high temperatures will reach the low 90’s with heat indices in the upper 90’s.  Overnight lows will be in the low 70’s.  Sunday will see slightly cooler and drier air with the passing of the cold front with upper 80’s inland and low to mid 80’s along/on the water with overnight lows in the upper 60’s to low 70’s.  It will be cloudier this weekend with a chance of scattered or isolated showers or thunderstorms on both days.  Saturday has the greater chances with more widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.  Some of these storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds, hail, frequent & dangerous lightning and heavy rains.  Sunday will be more of scattered or isolated showers that should move out quickly if they form.  Water conditions look to be cautious on Saturday for all locations, except Bays with Small Craft Advisories through late Saturday Night for gustier winds and seas building to 5 feet due to a strong southerly flow, again.  The model data is not coinciding with NWS Forecasts at this time for Saturday.  Sunday could go either way, but looks like conditions improve throughout the day and winds shift to out of the north, especially with Inshore Waters.  Sunday could be a “confused seas” day with northern winds trying to correct what strong southerly flow caused on Saturday!  Water temperatures are the same with ocean waters and surf temperatures recovering after the prolonged southern flow.  Surf is back in the upper 60’s to 70’s now.  Surf and beach conditions look good all weekend, with Saturday seeing some gustier winds and elevated surf with a higher swell.  This could cause a Moderate Risk of rip currents on Sunday and depending how quickly the waters recover Sunday could see Low to Moderate Risks.   You will need to watch out for any thunderstorms as well.  UV Index will be Very High both days.

The High Pressure over the eastern half of the US will start breaking down today and move southward through the weekend.  This will allow a cold front to approach the region on Saturday and then cross the region on Saturday Night into Sunday.  This cold front will push offshore slowly and then stall south of the region through next week.

Next week continues some cooler and drier air with temperatures in the upper 80’s inland and low to mid 80’s along/on the water.  Overnight lows in the upper 60’s to 70’s.  Weather will continue to be unsettled with chances of shower and thunderstorms all week.  So far water conditions look mostly good except for some time frames for Midshore to Offshore waters.  Surf and beach look good as well.  With an unsettled pattern, this could and will likely change closer to next week!

Tropics are quiet, still!

Have a great weekend and stay cool on Saturday!  Relief is only a few days away before we are back to more seasonable Summer temperatures.

Saturday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  50%-60% chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 90’s inland, low 90's along/on the water
Low:  Low 70’s
UV Index:  10/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:44am
Sunset: 8:21pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather – Very Good
Weather2Hunt.com – 43/50

Sunday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  20%-40% chance of isolated or scattered showers and thunderstorms
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 80's inland, Low 80's along/on the water
Low:  Upper 60’s to low 70's
UV Index:  8/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:45am
Sunset: 8:21pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather - Very Good
Weather2Hunt.com – 43/50

Friday Night Surface Analysis



Saturday Surface Analysis



Sunday Surface Analysis



Friday - Monday Precipitation Total



Saturday Severe Weather Risk




Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts
Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature: 83°F
Saturday
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots becoming west after midnight then NW at 5 knots late
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Sunday
Wind:  N 5 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Sunday Night
Wind:  SE 5 knots becoming northeast after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides






Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  75°F
Saturday Morning
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Saturday Afternoon
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: N 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides





Barnegat Bay at Island Beach State Park
Water Temperature:  85°F
Saturday
Wind:  WSW 10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  WSW 5-8 knots becoming variable at less than 5 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Sunday
Wind:  Variable 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 foot
Sunday Night
Wind:  Variable 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 foot

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides





Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  77°F
Saturday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 15 to 21 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: NNE 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: NNE 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides





Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  82°F
Saturday
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visbility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1 foot
Saturday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visbility 1-3 nm
Surf:  2-3 feet
Sunday
Wind:  NW 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visbility 1-3 nm
Surf:  2 feet
Sunday Night
Wind:  NE 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1 foot or less

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides





Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  76°F
Saturday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  SSW 6 feet at 6 seconds
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 19 to 25 knots
Seas:  SSW 6 feet at 7 seconds
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NE 14 to 18 knots
Seas:  S 5 feet at 8 seconds
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 8 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperatures 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)

   

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

Tides are missing!  The NOAA Tides website is down right now.  As soon as it comes up I will have tide charts.

Thanks

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  Hot, hazy and humid again, however not as hot as the last couple of days.  There will be a mix of sun and clouds this morning with clouds continuing to build in ahead of any showers or thunderstorms before becoming mostly cloudy.  Scattered or widely scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible today ahead of the cold front pushing through.  Some of these storms could be strong to severe with a risk of damaging winds, frequent and dangerous lightning and heavy rains.  The SPC has placed the area in a Generalized Risk for today, however just north and west of NJ, areas are under a Slight Risk.  High temperatures inland will be in the mid 90's with heat indices in the upper 90's to 100's.  Along/on the water highs will be in the upper 80's to low 90's with heat indices in the mid to upper 90's.  Lows in the low 70's tonight.  There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories for some counties today, but not as widespread as the last two days.

Water conditions really vary by location today.  For all ocean water locations, Small Craft Advisories are in effect through late tonight for winds gusting to 25 knots and seas building to 5 feet.  So far, none of the buoys are reflecting any conditions near this.  Raritan Bay will have southwest winds 5-10 knots increasing 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots this afternoon changing to west winds 10-15 knots tonight diminishing to near 5 knots late with seas 1-2 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less late.  Visibility this morning and this afternoon could be limited to 1-3 nautical miles.  Barnegat Bay will have west-southwest winds 10-12 knots today diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight and seas 1 foot or less.  Delaware Bay will have southwest winds around 15 knots today changing to west winds at 10-15 knots tonight diminishing to 5 knots after midnight with seas 3 feet subsiding to 1-2 feet.  Visibility could be limited to 1-3 nautical miles at at times.  Inshore ocean waters will have west-southwest winds 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots today changing to southwest winds at 13-20 knots this afternoon with seas 3-5 feet at 6 seconds.  Midshore to Offshore will have west-southwest winds 16-22 knots changing to southwest winds in the afternoon at 18-24 knots with seas 5-6 feet at 6-7 seconds.  Remember, wind and waves could be much higher in any thunderstorms!

Surf and beach look ok with Moderate Risks of rip currents and some rougher, higher waves today.  Winds are already out of the southwest/west-southwest around 10-12 mph with wave heights around 2 feet with some rougher surf.  Winds could increase from the southwest to 15 mph and waves could reach 3 feet with a 4 foot south swell at 6 seconds.  Surf temperatures are in the low to mid 70's for most places.  UV Index will be Very High at 9/15.  Be alert for any approaching thunderstorms while out on the beaches today, as storms could produce frequent lightning!  It will be hot again on the beach, so be aware of heat issues.  It does not look like a sea breeze will be able to overcome the stronger southwest winds today.

Have a great day and stay cool.  Some slightly cooler and drier air will come in behind this cold front.

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  The heat wave is over!!  A mix of sun and clouds today as the cold front with an associated low riding along it continues to cross the state and move offshore.  There is some light hazy/foggy conditions along coastal and marine areas this morning.  This will clear out later this morning into the afternoon, mostly, with maybe a light haze on the water.  Temperatures have cooled off quite a bit with the extreme high heat and humidity gone for the foreseeable future.  Temperatures this morning are already lower than most of our lows for the last week.  Humidity is still a little higher with dew points in the 70's still, but that will lessen as some slightly drier air moves in today.  Highs inland will still be in the upper 80's and even some 90's in western areas with low to mid 80's along/on the water.  Lows will still only be in the low 70's with mid 70's in western urban areas.  All Heat Advisories and Warnings have been canceled.  There is a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms today, mainly in the afternoon.  There is a generalized risk that some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe.  Any showers or thunderstorms will be scattered and likely later this afternoon into the overnight.

Water conditions are rated good today for all locations.  All Small Craft Advisories have expired and winds will continue to diminish and seas subside throughout the day.  Wind direction will vary by location and time.  Raritan Bay will have southeast winds 5-10 knots diminishing to east winds around 5 knots tonight with seas 1 foot or less.  Barnegat Bay will have northeast winds changing to east winds today around 6 knots becoming variable tonight around 5 knots with seas 1 foot or less.  Delaware Bay will have west winds becoming south at 5-10 knots then changing to southeast tonight at around 5 knots with seas 1-2 feet.  Visibility could be limited to 1-3 nautical miles at times.  Northern inshore ocean waters will have northwest/north-northwest winds 5-10 knots changing to east-northeast at 5-10 knots with seas 2-3 feet at 7-8 seconds.  Southern inshore ocean waters will have west-southwest winds 9-12 knots diminishing to around 5 knots this afternoon with seas 3 feet at 7 seconds.  Midshore to Offshore waters will have west-northwest winds 5-10 knots changing to east-northeast at 5-7 knots this afternoon with seas 4 feet at 7 seconds.

Surf and beach look good with a Low Risk of rip currents and calm winds and surf.  Right now winds are variable and less than 5 mph with wave heights around 2 feet.  Winds will increase out of the northwest to 10 mph today with waves 3 feet with a 3 foot south swell at 7 seconds.  Surf temperatures look unchanged.  UV Index is Very High at 9/15.  Be alert for any thunderstorms that may move in or pop-up!

Have a great Sunday!

[Pfishingruven]

Minor coastal flooding possible with tonight's high tide for Coastal Ocean, Monmouth and Middlesex Counties due to high lunar tides.  This could continue on Monday and Tuesday as well.

Coastal Flood Advisory
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
317 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013

NJZ012>014-020-026-220200-
/O.NEW.KPHI.CF.Y.0014.130721T1917Z-130722T0200Z/
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-
317 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2013

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

* LOCATION...THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE FROM SANDY HOOK TO LITTLE
  EGG INLET, RARITAN BAY, AND ADJACENT BACK BAYS INCLUDING BARNEGET
  BAY.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AROUND THE
  TIME OF TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE ALONG THE OCEANFRONT AND RARITAN BAY OCCURS BETWEEN
  7 PM AND 8 PM. HIGH TIDE IN THE BACK BAYS OCCURS LATER THAN ON
  THE OCEANFRONT.

* IMPACTS...LOCALIZED ROADWAY FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR
COUNTY PLEASE GO TO WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER
CASE).

&&

$$

HEAVENER