NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekend Edition: July 27-28, 2013

[Pfishingruven]

Another very unsettled weekend with a mix of conditions, but again not a complete wash out.  High temperatures will be seasonable with mostly drier air across the area.  Highs will be in the low to mid 80’s inland with temperatures along/on the water just slightly cooler.  Sunday will be the warmest day.  Overnight lows will return back to the low 70’s.  Saturday Day looks dry and more sun than clouds with clouds building in during the day.  The evening, overnight and Sunday will bring mostly cloudy skies and chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms with chances increasing into and through Sunday day then decreasing some into Sunday Night.   Water conditions are rated good right now for all locations.  A southwest flow will return starting early Saturday.  Sunday could see conditions near Small Craft Advisory criteria as the cold front pushes through.  Winds could gust in excess of 20 knots and seas could build to 5 feet with the southwest flow.  If conditions deteriorate, they should improve going into Monday.  Water temperatures are about the same as they were this week.  Bays and Rivers are in the upper 70’s to low 80’s with some mid to upper 80’s in the smaller and shallower bodies of water.  Inshore ocean waters are in the upper 60’s to mid 70’s.  Midshore to Offshore waters are in the low to upper 70’s.  Surf temperatures are mostly in the low to upper 70’s, but there are some pockets of upper 60’s in areas still.  Surf and beach conditions look good for Saturday with Low Risks of rip currents.  Sunday could go either way, especially with the passing front and return of a southwest flow.  Winds, surf, and wave heights could pick up on Sunday and increase the Rip Current Risk to Moderate or High, but right now it still looks like a low risk.  UV Index will be Very High on Saturday and High on Sunday.

The frontal boundary off the East Coast will remain nearly stationary through the weekend.  High Pressure will move to the northeast on Friday as Low Pressure moves toward the north along the stalled boundary.  A cold front will slowly drop through the area Sunday Night into Monday Morning.

Next week will start off and end unsettled with some moderate high pressure working in for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Rain and thunderstorm chances will carry over from the weekend into Monday and return with a passing cold front on Thursday and Friday.  Temperatures will continue to be seasonable with highs in the low to mid 80’s inland and slightly cooler temperatures along/on the water with overnight lows in the low 70’s.  Air will be drier and less humid most of the week.  Water conditions are rated good for all locations all week right now.  Surf and beach conditions look good as well.

Continuing to watch Tropical Storm Dorian in the Eastern Atlantic for intensity and track and how it plays into our forecasts in the coming week.  The area of invest above Bermuda looks like it is being carried to the northeast by the passing trough/front today.

Have a great weekend!

Saturday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance during the day, 30% chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 80’s
Low:  Low 70’s
UV Index:  8/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:50am
Sunset: 8:16pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather – Good
Weather2Hunt.com – 43/50

Sunday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the day, 40% chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:  Low to mid 80's
Low:  Low 70's
UV Index:  7/15 (High)
Sunrise: 5:51am
Sunset: 8:15pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather - Good
Weather2Hunt.com – 33/50

Friday Night Surface Analysis



Saturday Surface Analysis



Sunday Surface Analysis



Friday - Monday Precipitation Total



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts
Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature: 77°F
Saturday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots becoming south in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Sunday
Wind:  S 5 knots increasing to 10 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet increasing to 1-3 feet in the afternoon
Sunday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides






Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  68°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: WSW 4 to 6 knots
Seas: SE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: S 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: SSW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 11 to 16 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides





Barnegat Bay at Island Beach State Park
Water Temperature:  75°F
Saturday
Wind:  Variable 5 knots becoming S 5-8 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  S 5-8 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Sunday
Wind:  SSW 6-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 foot
Sunday Night
Wind:  SSW 5-9 knots becoming Variable and less than 5 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 foot

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides





Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  73°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: SSW 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: S 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: SW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides





Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  81°F
Saturday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  2 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  S 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visbility 1-3 nm
Surf:  2 feet
Sunday
Wind:  SW 10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visbility 1-3 nm
Surf:  2 feet
Sunday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots becoming west after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  2 feet

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides





Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  70-77°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: SW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 8 seconds
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: S 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Sunday Morning
Winds: SSW 11 to 14 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 9 seconds
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  SSE 5 feet at 8 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperatures 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)

   

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  A mix of sun and clouds this morning with more sun than clouds and mostly sunny skies today.  Clouds will build in today bringing mostly cloudy conditions tonight.  There is a large cold front over the Ohio Valley moving west and should move into the area on Sunday.  High temperatures today will be in the low to mid 80's inland with upper 70's to low 80's along/on the water.  Overnight lows in the upper 60's to low 70's.  Overall, it will be dry today with a low chance of isolated or scattered showers and thunderstorms all day with the chance slightly increasing tonight.  There is a generalized risk of severe weather so if any storms form they could become strong to severe.

Water conditions are rated good today for all locations.  Small Craft Advisories were canceled last night and buoy reports indicate waters have pretty much recovered and are back to normal heights.  The southerly flow will kick in today and tomorrow, but should be gone by Monday.  Fog is possible late tonight into Sunday Morning across most of the state.  Raritan Bay will have south winds 5-10 knots changing to the southeast tonight with seas 1 foot or less and patchy fog causing limited visibility of 1-3 nautical miles.  Barnegat Bay will have southwest winds changing to south in the afternoon at 5-8 knots then becoming south-southeast tonight with seas 1 foot or less.  Delaware Bay will have south winds 5-10 knots with seas 1-2 feet.  Inshore ocean waters will have west-southwest/southwest winds 5-7 knots becoming south/south-southeast in the afternoon at 7-10 knots with seas 2-3 feet at 7 seconds.  Midshore to Offshore waters will have west-southwest/southwest winds 5-8 knots changing to south winds at 7-10 knots in the afternoon with seas 3-4 feet at 7 seconds.

Surf and beach conditions look good today with Low Risks of rip currents and calm winds and surf.  Currently winds are variable out of the south and west at around 7 mph and calm surf at 1-2 feet with an occasional 3 foot wave.  Winds will be out of the south mainly at 5-10 mph with waves around 3 feet with a 2-3 foot southeast swell at 7 seconds.  Surf temperatures are in the upper 60's to low 70's.  UV Index is Very High at 9/15.  Just be alert in case any isolated thunderstorms pop-up today!

Tomorrow will have higher chances of rain with showers and thunderstorms likely later in the day into the overnight.  Right now water conditions are forecast good, but with a front pushing through that could change.

Still watching Tropical Storm Dorian in the Atlantic.  It has weakened and will likely become unnamed and just an area of low pressure.  It looks like it will stay south of Florida and continue west.  If it stays together enough, it could strengthen in favorable conditions next week.  Just something to keep watching to see where it goes and what it does or does not become.  It is still early in Hurricane Season.  The season does not peak until August and September.  Historically, end of August, September and October are the months with the most East Coast involvement.  Just for information, Tropical Storm Flossie in the Pacific is on course for Hawaii.  It will likely on be a Tropical Depression, but they can still expect significant winds and flooding rains!

Have a great Saturday and enjoy the weekend!

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  It is mostly cloudy this morning with sun peeking through at times.  The cold front is still west of the area in Western PA.  Showers and thunderstorms have formed well ahead of the front and some areas in Northern NJ are already getting some showers and thunderstorms.  High temperatures inland will be in the low 80's with temperatures along/on the water in the mid to upper 70's.  Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60's.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue throughout the day with storms moving in from the southwest/south-southwest.  There is again a generalized risk of severe weather so some of the thunderstorms could be strong to severe with damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rains.  Rain and storms should clear out by tomorrow morning.  Be alert for any changing conditions.

Water conditions are rated good today for all locations, however be alert for any thunderstorms moving out over the water!  A southerly flow will continue into the overnight, but by tomorrow winds will change again.  Raritan Bay will have southeast winds 5-10 knots changing to south winds tonight and southwest after midnight with seas 1 foot or less.  Barnegat Bay will have south-southeast winds 5-10 knots changing to south at night and west after midnight with seas 1 foot or less.  Delaware Bay will have southeast winds around 10 knots changing to south tonight and west after midnight with seas 1-2 feet.  Inshore ocean waters will have south-southwest/south winds 4-9 knots changing to south-southeast 9-14 knots in the afternoon with seas 2-3 feet at 7-8 seconds.  Midshore to Offshore waters will have south-southwest/west winds 3-5 knots changing to south-southeast 9-12 knots in the afternoon with seas 2-3 feet at 8 seconds Midshore (Mud Hole)  and 3 feet building to 5 feet in the afternoon at 8 seconds for Offshore (Chicken Canyon) areas.

Surf and beach conditions look good today with Low Risks of rip currents.  Just be alert for any approaching thunderstorms.  Currently winds are light and variable, mostly of the east/east-southeast around 5 mph with some gusts to 10 mph.  Surf is moderately rough at times being driven in by the east winds with wave heights 2-3 feet.  Winds should shift to the south at 5-10 mph with wave heights 3 feet with a 2-3 foot swell at 8 seconds.  Surf temperatures are in the low 70's.  UV Index is Moderate at 4/15, however when the sun makes it out from behind the clouds the UV Index could be Very High at 9-10/15.

TS Dorian has weakened to a tropical wave that is being watched for any redevelopment.  It will most likely not pose a risk to the US at all except for possibly bringing some tropical moisture to the Gulf.

Have a great Sunday!

[Pfishingruven]

As the cold front approaches, a broken, but heavy line of showers and thunderstorms is approaching parts of Western NJ.  These storms are moving slower from the south-southwest moving north-northeast bringing very heavy rains and Flash Flooding in many areas, including major highways and roadways.  Remember, never attempt to cross any moving or standing water!!

Flash Flood Warning
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NJC019-027-035-290015-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FF.W.0046.130728T2119Z-130729T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
519 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN HUNTERDON COUNTY...
  MORRIS COUNTY...
  SOMERSET COUNTY...

* UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

* AT 514 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AND REPORTS
  FROM THE PUBLIC INDICATE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL
  TOTALS OF OVER THREE INCHES HAVE OCCURRED AND SEVERE FLOODING HAS
  ALREAD BEEN REPORTED.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BASKING
  RIDGE...BELLE MEAD...BOONTON...BRIDGEWATER...BUTLER...CHATHAM...
  CHESTER...CLOVERHILL...DOVER...FLAGTOWN...FLORHAM PARK...GREEN
  POND...KINNELON...LINCOLN PARK...MADISON...MARTINSVILLE...
  MENDHAM...MILLINGTON...MORRISTOWN...MORRIS PLAINS...MOUNT
  ARLINGTON...MOUNTAIN LAKES...NETCONG...PEAPACK AND GLADSTONE...
  RIVERDALE...ROCKAWAY...SKILLMAN...SOMERVILLE...WHARTON...WHITE
  HOUSE STATION...BOUND BROOK...BUDD LAKE...CALIFON...EAST HANOVER...
  FAR HILLS...FLEMINGTON...LAKE TELEMARK...LEBANON...LONG VALLEY...
  MANVILLE...MILLSTONE...PARSIPPANY...PEQUANNOCK TOWNSHIP...SOMERSET
  AND SUCCASUNNA.

  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF SEVEAL INCHES IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
  WITH SEVERE FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS MANY AREAS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR IN AN
AUTOMOBILE. TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN!

&&

LAT...LON 4090 7434 4074 7437 4068 7445 4067 7440
      4062 7442 4057 7453 4049 7446 4038 7461
      4042 7477 4036 7486 4056 7490 4075 7484
      4079 7489 4091 7478 4092 7465 4109 7450
      4103 7450 4100 7430 4091 7427

$$

FORECASTER:PO
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
459 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

DEC003-NJC007-015-033-PAC045-101-282245-
/O.CON.KPHI.FF.W.0045.000000T0000Z-130728T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAMDEN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-DELAWARE PA-GLOUCESTER NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-
SALEM NJ-
459 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN SALEM...NORTHEASTERN NEW CASTLE...NORTHWESTERN
GLOUCESTER...SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE...PHILADELPHIA AND NORTHWESTERN
CAMDEN COUNTIES...

AT 453 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN AREAS OF
EXTREMELY INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW CASTLE...NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN...NORTHWESTERN
GLOUCESTER...NORTHWESTERN SALEM...PHILADELPHIA AND SOUTHEASTERN
DELAWARE COUNTIES.

DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATES THAT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA SO FAR. AN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERAL INCHES MORE RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 645 PM.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WILMINGTON...
PHILADELPHIA...CAMDEN AND GLOUCESTER CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 4007 7515 4005 7511 4005 7509 4001 7504
      3999 7506 3998 7501 3995 7502 3994 7498
      3989 7494 3969 7522 3956 7552 3959 7555
      3954 7556 3951 7564 3962 7571

$$

FORECASTER:PO