After a run of nice, settled weather, the weekend will bring in some slightly unsettled weather. However, the weekend will not be a washout. There will be chances of rain all weekend with northern areas having very low chances and chances increasing in a southerly direction. Southern areas will have the greatest chances of rain for the state, however we are still only talking 20%-50% even for Cape May. Rain chances will also peak Saturday Night and Sunday Day and then lessen into Sunday Night. Any rain will mostly be isolated or scattered with some higher chances of more widely scattered or widespread showers across southern NJ. Even though showers are not going to be widespread, sun will not be in an abundance either with mostly cloudy to cloudy, overcast skies all weekend. Saturday may see some sun with northern areas having the least amount of clouds. High temperatures will range from mid 70's to low 80's with the cooler temperatures being along/on the water. Overnight lows will be back in the mid 60's mainly with some mid to upper 50's across northern and higher elevation areas. Some humid air will also work in this weekend, especially across central and southern NJ, with the higher humidity on Sunday with dew points returning back into the 60's with upper 60's on Sunday. Water conditions are rated good for all locations, all weekend. Saturday will have the lightest winds with Sunday being just a little windier. Winds looks to be mainly easterly with some northern influence as well and could be gusty at times with seas building to 4 feet possible. Water temperatures are about the same, maybe a couple of degrees cooler from this week with all waters in the 70 degree range. Surf and beach conditions look good however some gustier northeast winds could make for some rougher and higher surf and Low to Moderate Risk of Rip Currents this weekend. Sunday will have both gustier winds and higher surf conditions and may warrant a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents. Regardless of the risk category, a easterly wind will drive in waves and anyone should be cautious and careful all the time in ocean waters.
High pressure will remain in control through Saturday before moving offshore. A stalled front to our south will lift northeast as a warm front and develop low pressure off the Carolinas Coast and move across to the to the south of the region on Sunday Night into Monday.
Next week will start off with the same weather as this weekend with some rain chances before high pressure takes over on Tuesday at some point bringing dry conditions for the rest of the week. Some more seasonable temperatures will return with low to mid 80's and overnight lows in the upper 50's to mid 60's again. This will also bring in some slightly moister air, making dew points in the 60's and moderate humidity. Water conditions and surf conditions all look good for next week, so far right now too.
Tropical Storm Erin is still moving west-northwest at a normal 14 mph with 40 mph winds and a central pressure of 1006 mb. The Official track continues to keep the storm north of the Leeward/Lesser Antille Islands. From that point, it is too early to tell what will happen or where this storm will go. From an East Coast perspective, this is something to watch over the next several days. There is also Invest 92L in the Gulf of Mexico. It did not do much overnight last night (the greatest amount of strengthening usually takes place at night, call diurnal max), nor show much organization or strengthening today. Aircraft Reconnaissance was actually canceled today and is on standby for tomorrow depending upon how the system looks in the morning. Either way, Gulf Coast States will want to watch this closely for potential development over the next few days.
Have a great weekend!
SaturdaySky: Partly sunny to mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation: 0% to slight chance for northern areas during the day, 20%-50% chance of showers all day
Temperatures
High: Mid 70's to low 80’s
Low: Low to upper 60’s, mid to upper 50's northern areas
UV Index: 9/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 6:10am
Sunset: 7:51pm
Fishing Forecast
Accuweather – Good
Weather2Hunt.com – 43/50
SundaySky: Mostly cloudy
Precipitation: 20%-50% chance of showers all day, 0% to slight chance for northern areas at night
Temperatures
High: Mid 70's to upper 70's
Low: Mid to upper 60’s, mid to upper 50's northern areas
UV Index: 8/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 6:11am
Sunset: 7:50pm
Fishing Forecast
Accuweather - Good
Weather2Hunt.com – 43/50
Friday Night Surface AnalysisSaturday Surface AnalysisSunday Surface AnalysisFriday - Monday Precipitation TotalCoastal Waters (out to 20nm) ForecastsRaritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy HookWater Temperature: 77°F
Saturday Wind: NE 5 knots becoming SE in the afternoon
Seas: 1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean): 0-1 feet
Saturday NightWind: SE 5-10 knots becoming E after midnight
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean): 0-1 feet
SundayWind: E 5-10 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean): 0-1 feet
Sunday NightWind: E 5-10 knots becoming NE after midnight
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean): 0-1 feet
Sandy Hook (Bay) TidesSandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat InletWater Temperature: 71°F
Saturday MorningWinds: NE 4 to 6 knots
Seas: ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf: 0-1 feet
Saturday AfternoonWinds: ESE 6 to 8 knots
Seas: ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf: 0-1 feet
Sunday MorningWinds: E 6 to 8 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf: 0-1 feet
Sunday AfternoonWinds: E 6 to 8 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf: 0-1 feet becoming 1-2 feet at night
Manasquan Inlet TidesBarnegat Bay at Island Beach State ParkWater Temperature: 78°F
SaturdayWind: Variable winds less than 5 knots becoming E 5-7 knots in the morning/afternoon
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf: 0-1 feet
Saturday NightWind: SE 6 knots becoming variable around 5 knots late
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf: 0-1 feet
SundayWind: ESE 5-7 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf: 0-1 foot
Sunday NightWind: E 5-8 knots becoming NE after midnight
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf: 0-1 foot
Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) TidesBarnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)Water Temperature: 73°F
Saturday MorningWinds: ENE 10 to 13 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf: 0-1 feet
Saturday AfternoonWinds: E 8 to 11 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Sunday MorningWinds: ENE 12 to 16 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Sunday AfternoonWinds: ENE 12 to 17 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf: 0-1 feet
Cape May (Ocean) TidesDelaware BayWater Temperature: 76°F
SaturdayWind: E 10 knots
Seas: 1-2 feet
Surf: 1 foot
Saturday NightWind: E 5-10 knots
Seas: 1-2 feet
Surf: 1 foot
SundayWind: E 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas: 2-3 feet
Surf: 1 foot
Sunday NightWind: NE 15 knots becoming N after midnight
Seas: 2-3 feet
Surf: 1 foot
Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) TidesOffshore WatersMidshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)Water Temperature: 70-73°F
Saturday MorningWinds: ENE 6 to 9 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Saturday AfternoonWinds: E 8 to 10 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Sunday MorningWinds: ESE 4 to 6 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Sunday AfternoonWinds: ESE 5 to 7 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Sea Surface TemperaturesSurface20 Meters (≈65 feet)NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperatures 3 Day LoopNWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day LoopOcean CurrentsSurface20 Meters (≈65 feet)Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution! *****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations. Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only. Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling. Every boat and captain has different operating values. You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)