NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekend Edition: Oct 12-13, 2013

[Pfishingruven]

More unsettled weather, this weekend is mainly from a nearly stationary and eventually stalled out Low Pressure system/coastal storm/nor’easter.  This will bring chances of rain through Sunday Night, with Saturday having the greatest chances.  Rain will be scattered more than constant and widespread, however persistent clouds will continue.  Rain could be heavy at times as pockets of heavy rain move onshore and from the south.  Sunday may see some sunshine with mostly cloudy skies eventually clearing out into the overnight.  High temperatures will be in the mid 60’s to low 70’s.  Overnight lows will be back into the upper 50’s inland and along/on the water with upper 40’s across northern areas on Saturday and low to mid 50’s inland and along/on the water with low 40’s across northern areas on Sunday.  Coastal Flooding is still possible through Sunday with tides running 1-2 feet above normal.  Gusty winds are possible from the northeast around 15-20 mph with possible higher gusts all weekend.  Water, surf and beach conditions will not recover as quickly.  Cautious conditions, Small Craft Advisories, gusty winds and high seas will continue into Monday before winds diminish and seas begin to recover.  Winds will continue out of the northeast at 15-5 knots with higher gusts and seas to 8 feet at 8 seconds.  Surf will continue to be rough with wave heights 3-6 feet.  Beach erosion will continue to be an issue.  Water temperatures have dropped quite a bit with this storm with all waters in the mid 60’s.  UV Index will be Low at 1-2/15.

The low pressure system off the coast of NorthCarolina/Virginia will edge north off of the DELMARVA Coast before stalling again!  High pressure over Eastern Canada will sink south into New England and the Northern Mid Atlantic and the force the low back south off of the North Carolina Coast on Sunday and Monday.

Next week will start off dry and then some chances of rain by late midweek through the end of the week.  Temperatures will be in the 60’s and 70’s with overnight lows in the 40’s and 50’s.  Water and surf conditions will improve throughout the week with nothing in the forecast right now to change this positive progression.
 
The NHC will continue to watch Invest 98L in the Eastern Atlantic.

Have a great weekend!

Saturday
Sky:  Cloudy
Precipitation:  20%-60% chance of scattered showers
Temperatures
High:     Upper 60’s to low 70’s
Low:     Mid 50’s to low 60’s inland and along/on the water, upper 40’s across northern areas
UV Index:  1-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:03am
Sunset: 6:22pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather – Very Good
Weather2Hunt.com – /50

Sunday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-30% chance of scattered showers during the day (lower chances to the north), 0% to slight chance at night
Temperatures
High:     Mid to upper 60’s
Low:     Low 50’s inland, mid to upper 50’s along/on the water, low 40’s across northern areas
UV Index:  1-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:04am
Sunset: 6:21pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather – Very Good
Weather2Hunt.com – /50

Friday Night Surface Analysis



Saturday Surface Analysis



Sunday Surface Analysis



Friday - Monday Precipitation Total



Friday - Monday Precipitation Total



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts
Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature: 65°F
Saturday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NE 10-15 knots increasing to 15-20 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-5 feet
Saturday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NE 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-5 feet
Sunday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  E 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-5 feet
Sunday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  E 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-5 feet

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  64°F
Saturday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  ESE 6 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  3-7 feet
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  ESE 6 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  3-7 feet
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 17 to 23 knots
Seas:  E 7 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  3-7 feet
Sunday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 16 to 21 knots
Seas:  E 7 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  3-7 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay at Island Beach State Park
Water Temperature:  61°F
Saturday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  ENE 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  4 feet
Surf:  2-4 feet
Saturday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind ENE 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  4 feet
Surf:  2-4 feet
Sunday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  ENE 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  4 feet
Surf:  2-4 feet
Sunday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  ENE 15 knots
Seas:  4 feet
Surf:  2-4 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  65°F
Saturday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 22 to 30 knots
Seas:  E 8 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  4-8 feet
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 19 to 26 knots
Seas:  E 7 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  4-8 feet
Sunday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 22 to 30 knots
Seas:  E 8 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  4-8 feet
Sunday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 20 to 28 knots
Seas:  E 8 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  4-8 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  66°F
Saturday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NE 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  4-5 feet
Surf:  3 feet
Saturday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NE 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  4-5 feet
Surf:  3 feet
Sunday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NE 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  4-5 feet
Surf:  3 feet
Sunday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NE 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  4-5 feet
Surf:  3 feet

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  63-67°F
Saturday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 20 to 27 knots
Seas:  ESE 8 feet at 8 seconds
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds:  ENE 20 to 28 knots
Seas: ESE 8 feet at 8 seconds
Sunday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 21 to 29 knots
Seas:  E 10 feet at 8 seconds
Sunday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 19 to 26 knots
Seas:  E 9 feet at 9 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperatures 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Hunter 2]

Thanks Matt 
Hope next weeks is better

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  The Low has been pushed farther south and east than anticipated this morning.  This has allowed some clearing with a mix of sun and clouds across most of the state.  It will continue to be partly sunny to mostly cloudy today with some scattered showers moving in from the east.  Areas to the north will have very low chances of showers while areas south will have greater chances of showers, however these are still lower chances.  Showers are currently moving onshore across Cape May and parts of Cumberland County and a large area of heavier showers will affect Ocean County in the next couple of hours.  High temperatures today will be in the upper 60’s with overnight lows into the upper 50’s and 60’s inland and along/on the water with low 50’s across northern areas.  Winds could be gusty out of the east-northeast at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph closer to the coast.  Here in Toms River, west of the GSP, I have received 2.03 inches of rain total over the last 3 days.  This fits the original forecast, but is a far distance from the 4-5 inches that were possible.  Coastal Flood Advisories are still in effect and minor coastal flooding is possible through the weekend at high tides.

Water and surf conditions are cautious still with Small Craft Advisories still in effect for all of NJ.  Winds will continue out of the northeast/east-northeast at 20-30 knots with higher gusts.  Bays and rivers will see elevated seas at 2-4 feet.  Ocean waters will have seas at  6-9 feet at 8 seconds.  Surf conditions will continue to be dangerous with wave heights 4-9 feet at 8 seconds with 7-9 foot east swell.  These wave heights and seas are averages and wave exceeding 9 feet are possible and probable.  I was over in Seaside Park yesterday and watched numerous waves around 10-12 feet move ashore.  Tomorrow should see some decrease in winds and a slow recovery of the water with winds below 20 knots and seas around 5 feet on Monday.

The NHC is still watching Invest 98L which has a 50% chance of tropical development in the next 48 hours.  This is one to watch over the next few days.

Have a great Saturday!