Coastal Storm Oct 9-12, 2013

[Pfishingruven]

A prolonged, slow moving coastal storm will impact NJ starting as early as tomorrow, Wednesday, and last through Saturday with longer lasting effects into next week.  Low pressure will form along the stalled out cold front south of the region.  A Low comprised of remnants of Tropical Storm Karen that exited Florida yesterday will move very slowly northeast, off the coast and intensify as it moves to the north.  This prolonged system will bring a strong onshore flow with gale force winds to 35 knots at sea and 15-25 mph along the coast with higher gusts possible, rain, heavy at times with 1-2.5 inches of rain possible and locally more causing localized and flash flooding conditions, minor to moderate coastal flooding with high tides running 1-2 feet higher, beach erosion and high seas with 12 feet off the coast and 6-8 feet in the surf.  Rain chances will increase from south to north, with southern areas seeing chances of rain tomorrow, central areas seeing rain by Wednesday Night and all of the state seeing rain by Thursday through Saturday.  Rain will be scattered or spotty at times to start before becoming widespread and steady by Thursday and then scattered and spotty on Friday and Saturday.

Small Craft Advisories are still in effect for all marine waters of NJ and will continue through next week.  Gale Warnings have also been issued for southern waters from Little Egg Inlet south through Delaware from 6am Wednesday and for southern offshore areas.  Coastal Flood Advisories have also been issued for coastal Atlantic, Cape May and Cumberland Counties in NJ.  Additional Gale Warnings and Coastal Flood Advisories will likely be issued moving north on Wednesday.

Updates to follow as needed!  This is not a powerful storm however the duration of the storm will cause the most problems.

Be safe!

NWS Philadelphia Briefing #1

Gale Warnings

Small Craft Advisories

Coastal Flood Advisories

[Salty Dog]

Thanks for the heads up .Now ,I'll do the house work ,in prep for the winter .Then fish after this all passes .

[Hotrod]

 

[Pfishingruven]

There are not really any major changes to the forecast of the Nor'Easter.  This is a slow moving, weaker storm that will linger in the area for several days. Not all areas will feel the full effects of this storm.  Coastal areas will see the greatest impacts.  Rains are having a hard time making it to the ground today due to low humidity and dry air that is in place over the area.  As the storm drifts northwards, rain chances will increase.  In general, the state will see  1-3 inches of rain, with the heaviest rains falling along the coast.  Pockets and bands of heavier rains are possible statewide and could affect any areas.  Coastal areas will likely see a more steady, widespread rain while areas inland may have scattered and spotty showers with this storm.  Winds along the coast will be steady out of the northeast at 15-25 knots with gusts to 40+ knots.  Winds will decrease inland, but gusty winds are still likely.  Minor to moderate coastal flooding is a problem with tides running 1-3 feet higher for Delaware River, bays and ocean waters, averaging around 2 feet higher during midday high tides.  Today looks to be the worst for tides, however strong onshore winds can push water into the shore or into the bays and not allow proper tidal changes to occur.  So, flooding is possible over the next few days as well.  Beach erosion will be an issue as well, as rough, high surf from 6-8 feet pounds the beaches through the weekend.  Ocean waters will see 9-12 foot seas with even higher winds 20-30 knots with gusts to 40+ knots.

Southern areas are already feeling solid effects from this system and areas to the north are beginning to see winds and seas pickup.  Oceans in Ocean County already look angry and dangerous.  I am sure southern waters look worse and northern areas are starting to increase as well.

In the overall picture, this is not a strong storm, but on the weaker side with a central pressure around 1010 mb or so.  The biggest problem is the duration and continued winds over the next few days.

I will keep this updated as necessary.  Below is an updated Briefing from the NWS.

Nor'Easter NWS PHI Briefing #2

[Hunter 2]

 

[Hotrod]

She is angry today
http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y130/hotrod007/D4677BCD-6FEE-43A4-AE59-0E74CE0B8619-24878-00001B67137F7A53_zps4f822a0c.mp4

[Pfishingruven]

Here is the latest Briefing from the NWS PHI.  Model Guidance and forecasts have increased rain totals to 2-5 inches.  We will just have to wait and see if this plays out.  Rains have really been lacking in this system so far.  I only received 0.19 inches of rain last night and so far just a trace today.  With rain amounts in the 2-5 inch rain, flooding is going to be a concern; localized, flash and coastal flooding.  It looks like this system sticks around until Sunday or Monday and then moves more east-northeast out to sea than to the north/northeast.  There are no other major changes in the forecast at this time.

Be safe!!

Nor'Easter NWS PHI Briefing #3

[njbob49]

       OOOPS!  Just noticed that CA. weather post is gone.   

[Hotrod]