NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekend Edition: Dec 14-15, 2013

[Pfishingruven]

This weekend is not shaping up to be one of the better ones with Arctic Air and a low pressure coastal storm bringing a mix of precipitation and cautious water conditions.  A weak to moderate coastal storm will affect the area.  While this Nor’Easter will not bring typical effects to the area, it will affect Long Island and the New England Coast as it intensifies off to the northeast.  Saturday will be the main event starting after daybreak, closer to late morning or early afternoon and finally moving out early Sunday Morning.  Saturday will have a mix of snow, mixed wintry precipitation and rain with accumulations of snow anywhere from 0-8 inches and accumulations of ice upwards of a tenth of an inch.  Central and Northern parts of the state have the highest chances of accumulations.  All areas could see snow or a mix, but that will eventually change over to rain for the remainder of the storm.  Sunday will see precipitation come to an end by late morning, with the storm moving off to the northeast.  Temperatures will start off COLD with warm air pushing in with the storm itself, followed by Arctic Air moving back in behind the storm.  High temperatures on Saturday will range from upper 20’s to low 40’s with Saturday overnight lows in the 20’s to 40’s.  Sunday overnight lows will be back into the low to mid 20’s with low teens across northern areas.  This will pose a problem for any liquid on surfaces refreezing!  Winds will be gusty at times from the west to northwest from 10-20 mph with 15-20 mph along the coast.  Higher gusts to 25+ mph are possible, but winds will not be the main effect here over land.  Water conditions may improve Friday Night into Saturday with SCA’s being cancelled, but by Saturday Afternoon/Night winds and seas will pick up again into SCA criteria, with possible gale force gusts at times.  With an intensifying low pressure system over the water, winds could easily reach 35+ knots with inshore waters 3-5 feet and offshore 6-11 feet.  Coastal Flooding should not be an issue with this storm now, but models are still showing tides running around a foot above normal.  Any change of track or intensity could change this so be aware.  Surf and beach conditions will be ok to cautious.   Surf and wave heights will be normal to a little rougher  at 1-3 feet on Saturday then rough at 2-5 feet on Sunday.  Water temperatures have dropped a couple of degrees with the very cold air in place across the region.  UV Index will be Low at 0-2/15.  Be safe out there.  Be ready for whatever this storm decides to throw at us.  The difference of just hundred miles here or there and 1 degree +/- makes completely different scenarios.  Saturday will be a mess and Sunday will be the time to clean it up.  Additional, storm coverage can be found on this thread http://njsaltwaterfisherman.com/forums/index.php?topic=33344.msg289912#new

High pressure over the Southeast States will gradually weaken and shift east off the Southeastern Seaboard through Friday. A cold front from the Northwest is expected to cross the region during Friday, followed by a high pressure system across Southern Canada building into the Northeast States late Friday into Saturday. Over the weekend, low pressure developing over the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday will track to off the Mid Atlantic coast by early Sunday. This system will strengthen as it quickly moves up toward the Canadian Maritimes through the remainder of Sunday. For next week, a quick moving clipper system will pass to our north Tuesday, followed by high pressure influencing our region into midweek.

Next week looks to be dry with a cold start moderating into the mid 30’s and 40’s for highs with teens, 20’s and 30’s for lows.  Tuesday could see some possible snow showers, with a system passing to the north.  Right now those chances are low.  Water conditions look cautious through Wednesday, maybe even into Thursday or Friday due to pressure gradient and high pressure centered off the coast.  Surf and beach conditions will be good to ok, with the possibility of some cautious conditions at times.  Gusty winds and elevated seas are probable with Small Craft Advisories at minimum.  Next week’s data can be skewed some by this weekend’s storm, so next week’s picture will be clearer over the weekend.  

Have a great weekend and be safe!

Saturday
Sky:  Cloudy
Precipitation:  Mixed precipitation depending on location and time (snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain)
Temperatures
High:     Mid 20’s to low 40’s
Low:     Low to upper 30’s inland, mid 30’s to low 40’s coastal, low 20’s across northern areas
UV Index:  0-1/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:10am
Sunset: 4:32pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather – Poor
Weather2Hunt.com –  27/50

Sunday
Sky:  Cloudy to mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  Rain/snow ending by late morning, 0%-slight chance for the rest of the day
Temperatures
High:     Low 30’s to mid 40’s
Low:     Low 20’s inland, mid to upper 20’s coastal areas, low teens across northern areas
UV Index:  1-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:11am
Sunset: 4:32pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather – Poor
Weather2Hunt.com – 30/50

Friday Night Surface Analysis



Saturday Surface Analysis



Sunday Surface Analysis



Friday - Monday Precipitation Total



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts
Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature: 39°F
Saturday
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  E 10 knots becoming N after midnight  
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Sunday
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Sunday Night
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides

Sandy Hook Tides




Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature: 39°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: NE 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  NE 1 feet at 3 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: ENE 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: NW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  SE 5 feet at 7 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Sunday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 17 to 22 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 8 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides[/size]
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/noaatidepredictions/viewDailyPredictions.jsp?bmon=12&bday=14&byear=2013&timelength=daily&timeZone=2&dataUnits=1&datum=MLLW&timeUnits=2&interval=highlow&format=Submit&Stationid=8517741]Coney Island, NY Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  51°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: NE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: E 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  ENE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 17 to 24 knots
Seas:  SE 6 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  2-5 feet
Sunday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 19 to 26 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  2-5 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay at Island Beach State Park
Water Temperature:  32°F
Saturday
Wind:  NE 7-12 knots becoming ESE in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 foot
Saturday Night
Wind:  SE 8-11 knots becoming N after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 foot
Sunday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  WNW 12-16 knots with gusts to 22 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 foot
Sunday Night
Wind:  WNW 11-15 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 foot

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides
   
Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  48°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: ENE 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  SE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: ESE 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Sunday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 23 to 31 knots
Seas:  SE 6 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  2-5 feet
Sunday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 22 to 30 knots
Seas:  SE 5 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  2-5 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides

Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  40°F
Saturday
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Saturday Night
Wind:  E 10 knots becoming NW after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware Bay Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  53°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: ENE 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  NW 2 feet at 3 seconds
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: E 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  NE 4 feet at 5 seconds
Sunday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 27 to 36 knots
Seas:  S 11 feet at 9 seconds
Sunday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 23 to 32 knots
Seas:  SSE 9 feet at 9 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperatures 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

Good afternoon! Cloudy with some snow to the north and west and rain to the east and south. The system has slowed and the track has shifted more to the north and east. The center of the low will pass very close to the coast. Winter Weather Warnings across Northern Counties and Winter Weather Advisories for Central and Western Counties are still in effect. I waited on this update to see what would win…warm air moving over the south and eastern part of the state or the moving in of precipitation. Looks like the warm air won. These areas have temperatures above freezing now. Snow is not likely for any of these areas from Salem through to Cape May County and then the eastern half of Atlantic County up through Ocean County. South will only see rain and moving north may see some snow showers then a wintry mix switching over to all rain. This warm air is going to continue to push to the north eventually and move the snow/rain line up through the state later today. Highs will range from low to upper 30’s inland, upper 30’s to upper 40’s along the coast and low 20’s to low 30’s across the north. Overnight lows will not depart much from the daytime highs with low 30’s to upper 30’s inland, mid 30’s to low 40’s along the coast and low to upper 20’s across northern areas. Winds may increase and become gusty today in the east to northeast at 10-20 mph.

Water conditions will be cautious to hazardous with Small Craft Advisories from Little Egg Inlet south to Delaware including the Delaware Bay and Delaware River. Little Egg Inlet North through Montauk including Midshore to Offshore locations has Gale Warnings posted. Inshore waters will have east winds to 35 knots with seas 4-7 feet. Offshore will have winds to 35 knots and seas 8-13 feet. Even farther off the coast, near the center of the low, 50+ knot winds and seas to 20 feet are likely. Luckily this will move off to the northeast and not generate any high winds into land!

Surf and beach conditions will be ok to cautious. Gusty east to northeast winds will increase to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Surf is rougher today with wave heights 2-4 feet increasing 2-5 even 3-6 feet this evening into tonight with a 2-6 foot east swell at 5 seconds. With easterly winds, anticipate waves greater than the averages, so 4+ foot waves are possible today and 6+ feet into tonight. Surf temperatures are in the low 40’s. UV Index is Low at 0-1/15.

Have a great Saturday!

[Pfishingruven]

Good afternoon!  All of the precipitation has moved out.  Anywhere from no snow to around 8 inches fell across the state.  Areas not receiving snow received an inch or more of rain and other areas had a messy mix of snow, sleet and ice.  Dry today and no more precipitation in the forecast until Tuesday which is a low chance of rain and snow showers, again!  Today is back to cold with a mix of sun and clouds being partly to mostly sunny and then partly cloudy tonight.  Gusty winds have moved in behind the system and ahead of an approaching cold front.  High temperatures will be in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s inland, mid to upper 40’s along the coast and low to mid 30’s across northern areas.  However, it won’t feel like these temperatures with gusty west winds and wind chills factored in.  Overnight lows will be cold tonight with low 20’s inland, mid to upper 20’s along the coast and low teens across northern areas.  Accumulated snow and ice will start melting today and then refreeze tonight.  Winds will be gusty today out of the west at 15-20 mph with potentially higher gusts inland and 20-25 mph with some higher gusts along the coast.  These winds will stick around through tomorrow before diminishing tomorrow night.

Water conditions are cautious to hazardous!  Small Craft Advisories are still in effect from Raritan Bay to Delaware River with Gale Warnings from Sandy Hook to Montauk and for northern Offshore waters south of Long Island.  ALL inshore waters will have west winds 20-25 knots with gusts to 30-35 knots only diminishing by a few knots tonight.  Inshore seas will be 5-10 feet at 8 seconds subsiding to 4-8 feet at 10 seconds tonight.  Midshore to Offshore waters will have west winds 20-30 knots with seas 6-11 feet at 10 seconds subsiding to 5-8 feet at 8 seconds tonight.  Offshore waters off Long Island will have higher winds to 35-40 knot and seas to 15 feet.  Advisories and Warnings will remain through today.  Conditions do not look to improve much until Tuesday.

Surf and beach conditions are OK to cautious.  Gusty west to northwest winds will be 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots.  Surf is rough with wave heights 2-5 feet with some 6 foot waves and a 4-5 foot southeast swell at 8 seconds.  Despite a strong west wind, waves are still pushing into the beach.  Surf temperatures are in the low 40’s.  UV Index will be Low at 1-2/15.

Have a great Sunday!