Author Topic: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: Jan 27-31, 2014  (Read 2130 times)

Offline Pfishingruven

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A more settled week on the weather front this week with water conditions improving by midweek as well.  It looks to be mostly dry this week with some chances of snow flurries or showers Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday mainly across northern and southern areas.  There is a very slight chance that a low pressure system coastal storm affecting the South/Southeast could change tracks and/or over-perform and affect the area around Wednesday.  This is unlikely, but something to keep in mind.  The main headline this week will be the blast of Arctic Air moving in Monday Night and staying through the end of the week/weekend.  Temperatures will be cold and below average, with wind chills making it feel even colder and into dangerously cold limits.  Winds will be gusty through Tuesday/Wednesday.  Water conditions will be cautious to hazardous with Small Craft Advisories through Tuesday Night, then improving for the remainder of the week before taking a turn for the worse Friday afternoon and then possibly into the weekend.  Surf and beach conditions will be cautious through Tuesday improving through the end of the week before worsening some on Friday.  Water temperatures are steady with low to mid 30’s for rivers and bays, low 30’s in the surf, mid 30’s to low 40’s for inshore waters and upper 40’s for offshore waters.  UV Index will be Low to maybe Moderate at 0-3/15 this week.

Low pressure in the Great Lakes quickly moves to the north of Maine on Monday bring an associated cold front through the Mid-Atlantic States during midday Monday.  A massive Arctic High Pressure centered in Canada on Monday, settles into the Southeast US late this week.  This permits a reinforcing cold front to pass through the Mid-Atlantic States on Friday.  A strong warm front will be developing to the southwest of the region next weekend.

A quick look ahead, the weekend looks to be warmer, back to average temperatures with 30’s and 40’s for highs and 20’s and 30’s for lows.  This warm front will bring rain chances both days.  Water and surf conditions will be good to cautious with winds and seas increasing with the passing of the fronts.

Have a great week!

Monday
Sky:  Cloudy becoming partly to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance, 30% chance of snow flurries/showers across northern areas
Temperatures
High:    Mid to upper 30’s inland, upper 30’s to low 40’s along the coast, low 30’s across northern areas
Low:     5-10 degrees inland, low to mid teens along the coast, low single digits across northern areas
UV Index:  1-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:09am
Sunset: 5:09pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather  - Poor
Weather2Hunt - 40/50

Tuesday
Sky:  Partly sunny to sunny becoming partly cloudy to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance, 20% chance of snow flurries/showers across southern areas
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper teens
Low:   Mid single digits inland, low to mid teens along the coast, low single digits across northern areas
UV Index:  1-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:09am
Sunset: 5:10pm
First Qtr: 10:40pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather – Poor
Weather2Hunt - 33/50

Wednesday
Sky:   Mostly sunny to sunny becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance, 20% chance of snow flurries/showers across southern areas
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 20’s
Low:   Upper single digits inland, low teens along the coast, low single digits across northern areas  
UV Index:  1-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:08am
Sunset: 5:11pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather – Poor
Weather2Hunt - 37/50

Thursday
Sky:  Partly to mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 30’s inland and along the coast, upper 20’s across northern areas
Low:   Upper teens to low 20’s inland, low to mid 20’s along the coast, low teens across northern areas
UV Index:  2-3/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:07am
Sunset: 5:12pm
New Moon: 4:40pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather – Poor
Weather2Hunt - 47/50

Friday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Upper 20’s to low 30’s inland and along the coast, mid 20’s across northern areas
Low:   Mid to upper 30’s inland and along the coast, low 30’s across northern areas
UV Index:  1-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:06am
Sunset: 5:13pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather – Poor
Weather2Hunt - 43/50

Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  32°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots becoming W 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  W 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots becoming NW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1-3 feet
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet

Tuesday Night
Wind:  NW 10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  NW 10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Thursday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                            



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  32°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 19 to 25 knots
Seas:  SSE 5 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Monday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 23 to 31 knots
Seas:  SSE 5 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 17 to 23 knots
Seas:  WNW 3 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 11 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: N 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: N 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: W 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: W 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet


Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  40°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 18 to 25 knots
Seas:  SSE 5 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Monday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 22 to 30 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 17 to 23 knots
Seas:  NW 2 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet

Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 12 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: N 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: N 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: W 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: W 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet


Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  32°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SSW 13-16 knots becoming W 16-19 knots in the afternoon with gusts to 31 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  WNW 15-18 knots with gusts to 26 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet

Tuesday
Wind:  WNW 12-16 knots with gusts to 22 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  WNW 12 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  NW 12 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  W 9-12 knots becoming NW 5-8 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  Variable and less than 5 knots becoming WSW 5-8 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind: WSW 8-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  41°F
Monday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 22 to 30 knots
Seas:  S 6 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 21 to 29 knots
Seas:  SSE 5 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 20 to 27 knots
Seas:  NW 4 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet

Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: NW 12 to 17 knots
Seas:  NNW 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: N 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: N 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3/2-4 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: N 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: W 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WNW 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet


Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides

]


Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  31°F-34°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  SW 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots becoming W in the afternoon
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 20-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet, Freezing spray
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots diminishing 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  2-3 feet, Freezing spray
Surf:  1-2 feet

Tuesday Night
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Light freezing spray
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Light freezing spray
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday
Wind:  W 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday Night
Wind:  SW 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Friday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots becoming around 5 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  48°F
Monday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 23 to 31 knots
Seas:  SSW 8 feet at 7 seconds
Monday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 23 to 31 knots
Seas:  SSW 9 feet at 8 seconds
Tuesday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 21 to 29 knots
Seas:  WNW 6 feet at 5 seconds

Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: NW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  NW 4 feet at 5 seconds
Wednesday Morning[/b
Winds: NW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 11 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: N 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 12 seconds
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NNE 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  ESE 5 feet at 10 seconds

Thursday Afternoon
Winds: N 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 5 feet at 9 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: W 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  ESE 5 feet at 9 seconds
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 18 to 25 knots
Seas:  ESE 6 feet at 9 seconds


Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 





Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!


*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)
« Last Edit: February 20, 2014, 12:00:03 AM by Pfishingruven »


Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Snow Tuesday Night
« Reply #1 on: January 27, 2014, 05:43:51 PM »
...And like that I become, almost, a liar.  The system affecting the South/Southeast this week, looks to come a little closer than expected.  Snow is likely for Tuesday Night for Central and Southern NJ with the highest accumulations for the south/southeast parts of the state!  1-2 inches is the most, but with the shift from nothing to something, this is now a system that could easily track more to the north and west and affect the area even more!

One of those Winters fcp!



Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: New Snowfall Forecast for Tonight/Tuesday Night
« Reply #2 on: January 28, 2014, 12:55:56 PM »
NWS has increased the snowfall total forecast by a couple of inches...southern and eastern areas, especially along the coast will see the most snow.  Still, just 2-4 inches with a worst case scenario of 4-6 inches right now.  The system has shifted north and west on its track.








 

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