This is not the full Outlook, yet, but I want to get some information posted.
Monday will be dry with a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the low to upper 30's and lows in the low to mid 20's. Clouds will increase into the evening and overnight.
Water, surf and beach conditions will be good on Monday deteriorating into the overnight.
Tuesday will bring cloudy conditions and precipitation starting in the morning to afternoon from a large coastal storm/nor'easter. This storm *looks* to stay well enough offshore that the area takes a minor to moderate blow from the storm with 1-4 inches of snow, gusty winds to 40+ knots, minor coastal flooding, beach erosion from high surf and elevated seas to 10+ feet. The models show a low RAPIDLY intensifying over the ocean and a change in track and/or intensity will, as normal, change the effects to our area. A shift west would bring additional snow/precipitation, higher winds, higher seas, additional coastal flooding and more effects. A shift east would take the storm farther out to sea and lessen what we get.
This has the POTENTIAL to be a major snow/coastal storm. Models show a 980 mb storm off the coast that moves off to the north-northeast impacting New England. The models show a sub 970 mb storm off of New England Coast. Anyone from Eastern Long Island through the Maine Coast should be prepared for a major storm.
More updates to follow and a full week Outlook to come. The rest of the week by Wednesday looks clear through Friday Night with 30's and 40's for highs and 20's and 30's for lows.
Thanks,
Matt
So, Winter will stick around for Tuesday and Wednesday with rough water conditions this week, but slightly warmer temperatures will take over by the end of the week. Tuesday into Wednesday will bring a glancing blow from a Nor’Easter that should stay well offshore and only bring some precipitation, including 1-4 inches of snow, gusty winds, minor coastal flooding and high seas. By Wednesday conditions will begin to clear through Thursday Night when clouds will build in and bring rain chances on Friday and into Saturday. Temperatures will be cold to start the week with 20’s and 30’s for highs and lows in the teens and 20’s. By Mid to late week, temperatures will increase into the 30’s then 40’s to 50’s, then 50’s to 60’s on Friday with overnight lows in the 20’s to 30’s and then 40’s on Friday. Water conditions look “good” Tuesday, then begin deteriorating late Tuesday, Cautious to Hazardous for Wednesday, subsiding on Thursday before kicking up again on Friday again. Offshore looks poor most of the week. Small Craft Advisories, Gale Warnings and Storm Warnings are likely along coastal waters with seas to 6 feet inshore and 10 feet offshore. Surf and beach conditions look good to start then Cautious to Hazardous by late Tuesday. Conditions will subside some on Thursday and then surf will increase on Friday again. Rough surf and wave heights to 6 feet are possible. Water temperatures are in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s inshore with offshore waters in the low 40’s. UV Index will be Low to Moderate at 2-5/15.
An Arctic High Pressure system over the region will slide east and move offshore overnight. A low pressure system developing over the Northeast Gulf of Mexico late tonight will track northeast and intensify rapidly as it passes to the southeast of Cape Cod by early Wednesday. Another high pressure system will build into the region in its wake later Wednesday and Thursday. A low pressure system will lift from the Deep South and move through the Great Lakes on Friday and then into the Saint Lawrence River Valley. Its associated cold front should move through early on Saturday. A high pressure system will then build slowly east from the Northern Plains for the weekend.
The weekend will have chances of rain on Saturday clearing out for Saturday Night and Sunday. Temperatures will be in the 50’s and 60’s with lows in the 30’s and 40’s. Water, surf and beach conditions may not clear for Saturday and will be Cautious likely through the weekend with Small Craft Advisories.
Have a great week and thanks for reading!
Tuesday Sky: Cloudy
Precipitation: Snow/Rain
Temperatures
High: Mid to upper 30’s
Low: Mid to upper 20’s inland and along the coast, low 20’s across the north
UV Index: 2-4/15 (Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:52am
Sunset: 7:12pm
Wednesday Sky: Partly to mostly sunny becoming mostly clear
Precipitation: 0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High: Mid 30’s to low 40’s
Low: Low 20’s inland, upper 20’s along the coast, upper teens across the north
UV Index: 3-4/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:51am
Sunset: 7:14pm
ThursdaySky: Mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation: 0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High: Mid to upper 40’s
Low: Mid 30’s to low 40’s inland and along the coast, low 30’s across the north
UV Index: 3-5/15 (Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:49am
Sunset: 7:15pm
FridaySky: Mostly cloudy becoming cloudy
Precipitation: 60%-slight chance rain during the day, 30% chance of rain at night
Temperatures
High: Mid 50’s to low 60’s
Low: Mid to upper 40’s inland and along the coast, low 40’s across the north
UV Index: 2-3/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:48am
Sunset: 7:16pm
Tuesday Surface Analysis
Wednesday Surface Analysis
Thursday Surface Analysis
Friday Surface
Total Precipitation Monday - Friday
Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday
Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) ForecastsRaritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy HookWater Temperature: 44°F
TuesdayWind: S 5 knots increasing to 10 knots in the afternoon
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean): 1-2 feet
Tuesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind: E 10 knots becoming N with gusts to 20 knots after midnight
Seas: 1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean): 1-2 feet
Wednesday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind: NW 15-20 knots increasing to 20-25 knots in the afternoon
Seas: 1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean): 1-3 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind: NW 15-20 knots diminishing to 10-15 knots after midnight with gusts to 30 knots
Seas: 1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean): 2-4 feetThursdayWind: NW 5-10 knots becoming SW in the afternoon
Seas: 1 foot or less becoming 1-2 feet in the afternoon
Surf (Ocean): 2-4 feet
Thursday NightWind: S 10-15 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas: 1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean): 2-4 feet
FridayWind: SW 10-15 knots
Seas: 1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean): 2-5 feet
Friday NightWind: SW 10-15 knots
Seas: 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean): 2-5 feet
Sandy Hook Tides (Bay) Sandy Hook Tides 
Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NYWater Temperature: 44°F
Tuesday MorningWinds: SSW 5 to 7 knots
Seas: ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Tuesday AfternoonWinds: S 10 to 13 knots
Seas: ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNW 16 to 22 knots
Seas: E 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf: 1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 20 to 27 knots
Seas: E 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf: 1-3 feet, then 2-4 feetThursday MorningWinds: WNW 10 to 14 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 13 seconds
Surf: 2-4 feet, then 1-3 feet
Thursday AfternoonWinds: SW 10 to 14 knots
Seas: ESE 1 feet at 13 seconds
Surf: 1-3 feet
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 17 to 23 knots
Seas: S 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf: 1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 21 to 29 knots
Seas: SSE 6 feet at 7 seconds
Surf: 2-4 feet, then 2-5 feet at nightConey Island, NY Tides Coney Island Tides
Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat InletWater Temperature: 38°F
Tuesday MorningWinds: SSW 5 to 6 knots
Seas: E 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf: 2-4 feet
Tuesday AfternoonWinds: S 9 to 13 knots
Seas: ESE 1 feet at 10 seconds
Surf: 2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNW 16 to 22 knots
Seas: ENE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf: 2-4 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 20 to 27 knots
Seas: E 4 feet at 8 seconds
Surf: 2-5 feetThursday MorningWinds: NW 9 to 12 knots
Seas: E 2 feet at 13 seconds
Surf: 3-6 feet
Thursday AfternoonWinds: SW 11 to 15 knots
Seas: E 2 feet at 12 seconds
Surf: 2-5 feet
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 18 to 24 knots
Seas: S 5 feet at 6 seconds
Surf: 1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 20 to 28 knots
Seas: SSE 6 feet at 7 seconds
Surf: 1-3 feetManasquan Inlet Tides Manasquan Inlet Tides
Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)Water Temperature: 42°F
TuesdayWind: Variable wins less than 5 knots becoming SSE 5-9 knots in the morning
Seas: 1 foot
Surf: 0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind: ENE 10-13 knots becoming N 13-16 knots after midnight with gusts to 22 knots
Seas: 1-2 feet
Surf: 1 foot
Wednesday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind: NW 19-22 knots increasing to 22-25 knots in the morning with gusts to 34 knots
Seas: 2-3 feet
Surf: 1-2 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind: WNW 17-20 knots decreasing 13-16 knots at night with gusts to 27 knots
Seas: 2-3 feet
Surf: 1-2 feetThursdayWind: W 6-9 knots becoming SSW 9-12 knots in the afternoon
Seas: 1-2 feet
Surf: 1 foot
Thursday NightWind: SSW 10-13 knots
Seas: 2-3 feet
Surf: 1-2 feet
Friday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind: SSW 10-15 knots increasing 17-22 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas: 3 feet
Surf: 1-2 feet
Friday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind: SSW 16-19 knots decreasing 12-15 knots after midnight with gusts to 26 knots
Seas: 1-2 feet
Surf: 1 footBarnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) TidesBarnegat Bay Tides
Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)Water Temperature: 39°F
Tuesday MorningWinds: SSE 8 to 10 knots
Seas: ENE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Tuesday AfternoonWinds: SE 12 to 16 knots
Seas: SE 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf: 1-2 feet
Wednesday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 23 to 31 knots
Seas: ENE 6 feet at 7 seconds
Surf: 2-4 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 24 to 32 knots
Seas: E 6 feet at 8 seconds
Surf: 2-5 feet, then 3-6 feet lateThursday MorningWinds: NW 8 to 11 knots
Seas: E 3 feet at 13 seconds
Surf: 3-6 feet
Thursday AfternoonWinds: SSW 11 to 14 knots
Seas: E 2 feet at 13 seconds
Surf: 2-4 feet
Friday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 22 to 29 knots
Seas: S 6 feet at 6 seconds
Surf: 2-4 feetFriday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 21 to 28 knots
Seas: SSE 6 feet at 7 seconds
Surf: 2-5 feetCape May (Ocean) Tides Cape May Tides
Delaware BayWater Temperature: 40°F-44°F
TuesdayWind: SE 5-10 knots becoming E 10-15 knots
Seas: 2-3 feet
Surf: 1-2 feet
Tuesday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind: NE 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots becoming N 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots after midnight, then NW 20-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots late
Seas: 3-4 feet
Surf: 1-3 feet
Wednesday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind: NW 20-25 knots increasing to 25-30 knots late morning
Seas: 4-6 feet
Surf: 2-4 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind: NW 20-25 knots with gusts to 35 knots diminishing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots after midnight
Seas: 4-5 feet subsiding to 2-4 feet after midnight
Surf: 1-2 feetThursday
CAUTIOUS
Wind: W 5-10 knots becoming S 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon
Seas: 2-3 feet
Surf: 1-2 feet
Thursday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind: S 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas: 3 feet
Surf: 1-2 feetFriday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind: S 15-20 knots increasing to 20-25 knots in the afternoon
Seas: 3-4 feet
Surf: 2-3 feet
Friday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind: S 20-25 knots becoming SW 15-20 knots after midnight
Seas: 3-4 feet, Visibility 1-3 nmn
Surf: 2-3 feetDelaware River (Ship John Shoal) TidesDelaware River Tides
Offshore WatersMidshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)Water Temperature: 43°F
Tuesday MorningWinds: SSW 3 to 4 knots
Seas: E 1 feet at 9 seconds
Tuesday AfternoonWinds: SSE 9 to 12 knots
Seas: E 1 feet at 9 seconds
Wednesday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: N 27 to 36 knots
Seas: NE 8 feet at 7 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
Winds: NW 25 to 33 knots
Seas: ENE 9 feet at 9 secondsThursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 16 to 21 knots
Seas: E 6 feet at 12 secondsThursday AfternoonWinds: WSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas: E 3 feet at 11 seconds
[
b]Friday Morning[/b]
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: S 23 to 31 knots
Seas: SSW 7 feet at 6 seconds
Friday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 25 to 34 knots
Seas: SSW 9 feet at 7 seconds Sea Surface TemperaturesSurface
20 Meters (≈65 feet)
NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day LoopNWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day LoopOcean CurrentsSurface
20 Meters (≈65 feet)
Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution! 
*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations. Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only. Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling. Every boat and captain has different operating values. You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]
*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)
