NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: May 5-9, 2014

[Pfishingruven]

An up and down kind of week, this time the weather more than the water as unsettled boundaries and systems move through the region. However, rain will not be anything like it was last week. Monday will be mainly dry and sunny with a chance of showers during the overnight. I wouldn’t rule out an isolated or scattered shower, maybe even a rumble of thunder and some lightning. Any rain should move out for Tuesday bringing dry and sunny skies mixed with some clouds through Wednesday before rain chances return for Wednesday Night, Thursday and Friday. These are low chances, which could increase throughout the week. Still, it will be more scattered showers, maybe a thunderstorm here or there, mixed in with sun and clouds. High temperatures will be in the 50’s to 70’s with overnight lows in the 30’s to 50’s. Northern areas, maybe even as far south as Central NJ could see overnight lows hovering around the freezing mark and frost possible the first half of the week. Total accumulation of rain this week  is less than a half an inch. Water conditions will start off Cautious with Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings Offshore on Monday. Conditions look to improve according to the models by Afternoon to Evening. There could be some lingering gusts and borderline winds still in the Afternoon. The remainder of the week looks good so far. I would still be alert to any last minute changes in the forecasts. With unsettled weather patterns, winds and seas could increase. Surf and beach conditions are Good all week. Some gusty winds on Monday, but surf should remain normal and in the 1-2 foot or less range all week, statewide. Water temperatures have increased a couple of degrees with waters still in the mid 40’s to low to mid 50’s in places, especially shallower waters. UV Index will be Moderate to mostly High at 3-7/15 pushing the 8/15 mark most of the days.

Low pressure over New England will bring another cold front through the region before it stalls south of the area Sunday Night. Weak low pressure is forecast to move along the stalled boundary and pass off the North Carolina Coast on Tuesday Morning. High pressure is expected to build down from Canada for Tuesday and Wednesday. A developing low over The Plains will move northeastward through the end of the week. Its associated warm front will cross the area on Thursday with the cold front from this low arriving over the weekend.
   
The weekend looks like a repeat of the week, with rain chances both days right now. Chances of scattered showers are likely, however it appears the sun will win overall. Temperatures will continue to be average in the 60’s & 70’s with 40’s to 50’s overnight. The jet stream is running very close to the area and will keep an early season “heat wave” south of the area. Water conditions could be Cautious, at least borderline on Saturday with Sunday looking good. Surf and beach conditions look good, too.

Have a great week and thanks for reading!

Monday
Sky:  Sunny becoming partly cloudy, Windy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance during the day, 20%-30% chance of showers at night
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 60’s inland, low to mid 60’s along the coast
Low:   Low to mid 40’s inland and along the coast, mid to upper 30’s across the north
UV Index:  7-8/15 (High)
Sunrise: 5:52am
Sunset: 7:54pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Mostly sunny then mostly clear
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Mid 60’s to low 70’s
Low:   Low to mid 40’s inland and along the coast, low to mid 30’s across the north
UV Index:  7-8/15 (High)
Sunrise: 5:51am
Sunset: 7:55pm
First Qtr: 11:16pm


Wednesday
Sky:   Mostly sunny to sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance during the day, 30% chance of showers at night
Temperatures
High:   Mid 60’s to low 70’s
Low:   Mid 40’s to low 50’s 
UV Index:  7-8/15 (High)
Sunrise: 5:50am
Sunset: 7:56pm


Thursday
Sky:  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-30% chance of showers all day
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 60’s inland, upper 50’s to low 60’s along the coast
Low:   Low to upper 50’s
UV Index:  3-6/15 (Moderate-High)
Sunrise: 5:49am
Sunset: 7:57pm


Friday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-30% chance of showers all day
Temperatures
High:   Upper 60’s to mid 70’s inland and southern coastal, low 60’s other coastal areas
Low:   Mid to upper 50’s
UV Index:  4-6/15 (Moderate-High)
Sunrise: 5:48am
Sunset: 7:58pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  54°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots diminishing to 10-15 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  W 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots becoming NW 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  NW 10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  N 5-10 knots becoming SW in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots becoming SW after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Thursday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots becoming light and variable
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots becoming light and variable
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Friday
Wind:  SE 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  SE 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                         



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  54°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WNW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  S 1 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: W 6 to 7 knots
Seas:  S 1 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NNW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SSE 1 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 4 to 6 knots
Seas:  SSE 1 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: SSE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SSE 1 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 4 to 6 knots
Seas:  SSE 1 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: ESE 4 to 6 knots
Seas:  SSE 1 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  SSE 1 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  54°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  SW 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 19 to 25 knots
Seas:  SW 5 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: ESE 5 to 6 knots
Seas:  SW 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: E 6 to 7 knots
Seas:  SSW 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SSW 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  SSW 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SSW 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: S 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSW 1 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: S 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NNE 2 to 3 knots
Seas:  S 1 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 1 to 2 knots
Seas:  SSW 1 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  58°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  WNW 12-17 knots or less   
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  WNW 8-11 knots decreasing to 5-8 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  Variable winds 5 knots becoming NW 5-9 knots in the morning
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  NW 8 knots becoming N after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  N 6-8 knots becoming SE in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  S 5-7 knots becoming SW after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  S 9 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  Variable winds 5 knots or less
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  SE 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  SE 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  52°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  NNW 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NE 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  SE 1 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SE 3 to 4 knots
Seas:  SSE 1 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NE 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  NE 2 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  ENE 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: SSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NNW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SE 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  57°F-60°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday
Wind:  NW 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less building to 1-2 feet late
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots becoming N 10-15 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  NE 10 knots becoming SE in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SE 10 knots becoming SE in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  S 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1 foot
Friday
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Friday Night
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  47°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 17 to 23 knots
Seas:  NW 6 feet at 6 seconds
Monday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  NW 4 feet at 5 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 6 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: W 6 to 9 knots
Seas:  S 1 feet at 6 seconds
Wednesday Morning
Winds: N 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  N 3 feet at 4 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: NW 1 to 1 knots
Seas:  NNE 2 feet at 4 seconds
Thursday Morning
Winds: SSE 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  SSW 2 feet at 5 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: E 5 to 6 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 5 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: E 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 5 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface




20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
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*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)