Hurricane Arthur

[Pfishingruven]

The disturbance off of the coast of Florida has organized and strengthened enough to become Tropical Depression 1. This is forecast to become Tropical Storm Arthur and pass very nearby the NJ Coast between Friday and Saturday. Effects will be felt before Friday and possibly into Sunday. Right now, any affects look to be rain, thunderstorms and some gusty winds, potential coastal flooding, and water and coastal conditions being affected. Track looks well forecast, however shifts east or west are likely. Intensity is the big unknown. Be prepared from anything from less than a tropical storm to a low end hurricane. The next couple of days will really tell how much strengthening can occur so close to land and then maintained while crossing NC and VA.

This is very early in the forecast process and early in the life cycle of this storm. The good with this system is that it should remain more offshore than onshore and the weaker side of the storm will affect the coast at this point. Daily updates or more as needed.

[Hotrod]

 

[Pfishingruven]

TD 1 has become Tropical Storm Arthur during the eraly morning hours. This is now forecast to be a solid Category 1 Hurricane with 80 mph sustained winds and gusts to 100 mph with a central pressure below 980 mb. The newest track takes the center east and essentially removes all of NJ, except adjacent ocean waters from the cone of uncertainty. The center of the storm will pass approximately 200-250 miles from the coast. There is the potential that outer bands of the storm will still affect land and coastal and ocean effects will be seen. Rain and thunderstorms with upwards of 2+ inches of rain, gusty winds, high seas, rough surf, rip currents higher than normal tides, coastal flooding and beach erosion are all possible. This track and intensity is not concrete, either, so expect changes and be ready for the potential of a closer to land storm. A large area of strong high pressure is situated over the entire Atlantic Ocean. The path is relying on the frontal boundary to pick this storm up and bring it out to sea and find a break in the large ridge of high pressure. One other major point is that these tropical systems usually form way out in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf and there is a good trend and strong read on the storm. This storm is forming less than 200 miles from the coast of Florida and is a home grown storm. There is not a lot of time to watch and view this system. Conditions are favorable for development, although there is some dry air to the immediate north.

Aircraft Reconnaissance flights have and will continue to fly into and around/above the storm sampling both the storm and the atmosphere. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the immediate Florida Coast adjacent to this storm.

Updates to follow. Not what I was looking forward to this weekend . Let's hope it keeps going east...

Here are the details on Arthur:

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 79.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[Pfishingruven]

NWS Philadelphia in Mount Holly has issued a Briefing for Arthur.

NWS PHI Weather Briefing #2

[Pfishingruven]

The newest data on Arthur has a 60 mph, 997 mb tropical storm slowly moving north at around 7 mph. It will continue north before turning northeast and following the coast into North Carolina and Virginia before turning more to the east. This current track keeps the storm, a hurricane by this point, well off of the coast of NJ. Rain will be enhanced by Arthur on Thursday and Friday, however few if any effects from the storm will be felt on land. Coastal and water conditions will still get gusty winds, high seas, rough surf and rip current risks. Winds to 30+ knots inshore and seas 4-6 feet, while offshore will have winds to 35+ knots and seas to 25 feet. These conditions will persist into Sunday or even Monday, however each day has conditions improving since this system will not be in the area or region for long.

I will have a 3 day Weekend Outlook out tonight. Be mindful of BW forecasts as they are not completely taking the hurricane into consideration and are on the low side for wind and seas.

Have a great day!

[Pfishingruven]

Arthur has been upgraded to a hurricane and will top out as a solid Category 2 with 105 mph sustained winds with higher gusts. Luckily, this will miss us well to the east, staying offshore. Arthur will enhance some rain effects tonight and tomorrow and some areas could see over 2 inches of rain causing flash flooding issues. The beach and ocean will also see some gustier winds, high seas, rough surf, dangerous rip currents and long period swells.

An updated Briefing from the NWS PHI is included.

Here is the latest stats on Arthur:

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 78.5W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

NWS PHI Briefing #4

[Hotrod]

Uh.. Boy..

[IrishAyes]

Thanks for the updates. 

[Hunter 2]

So be should be okay Sunday for the Mudhole?

[Pfishingruven]

So be should be okay Sunday for the Mudhole?

Sunday doesn't look terrible, provided these numbers are true...2-3 feet early, winds increasing to 15 knots by afternoon, then 20 knots by dark with seas building to over 4 feet.

[Hunter 2]

Thanks Matt

[Pfishingruven]

Arthur made landfall last night on the Outer Banks, NC between Cape Lookout and Beauford around 11 PM as a Category 2 Hurricane. Arthur is now a Category 1 pulling away to the northeast. Since early this morning, Arthur looks to have reorganized over the open water and has wide-reaching bands currently coming on shore across the state. Arthur made landfall as a heavy east and south storm with most of the rain south and east of center. The heaviest bands are now west and north of the eye, bringing that rain along the coast more. Coastal areas are seeing heavy rain, as well as enhancing rain further inland. This scenario does not indicate "no land effects" from the storm. However, it will just continue to bring rain, gusty winds along the coast, high seas, rough surf, rip currents, minor beach erosion and minor flooding. Southern areas are seeing minor coastal flooding as well. Outer bands will continue to enhance and bring rain to the area as Arthur pulls off to the northeast.

Happy 4th of July!

SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.1N 74.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM E OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

[Hunter 2]

Hi Matt, any updates on the Mudhole for Sunday around 11am?
  Thanks,

[Pfishingruven]

Hi Matt, any updates on the Mudhole for Sunday around 11am?
  Thanks,

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