Author Topic: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekend Edition: July 12-13, 2014  (Read 2984 times)

Offline Pfishingruven

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A mix of a weekend for weather, but water conditions look good through later Sunday. Saturday looks dry with sun for the majority of the day before clouds build in and continue for Sunday making a mix of sun and clouds and chances for showers and/or thunderstorms. Highs will be in the 70’s and 80’s with lows in the 60’s and 70’s. Humidity will be moderate to high. Water conditions look good all weekend, except for later Sunday with winds picking up to near 15 knots in the late afternoon and then with gusts to 20 knots overnight into Monday. Sunday may also bring in thunderstorms which could affect water conditions negatively near or in storms. Surf and beach conditions look good, too, echoing water conditions with winds picking up later on Sunday. Surf will be normal at 1-3 feet and winds will be light onshore shifting to a southerly flow. Be aware of any thunderstorms on Sunday. Water temperatures are below average with rivers and bays in the 70’s, surf temperatures in the mid 50’s to low 60’s, inshore ocean waters in the mid to upper 60’s, some 70’s in extreme southern waters and low 70’s offshore. As the southerly flow lets up for the weekend, temperatures may moderate some, but the southerly flow will return through midweek later on Sunday and will bring upwelling waters and cooler water temperatures. UV Index will be Very High on Saturday and Moderate to Very High on Sunday.

A stationary frontal boundary will remain over the DELMARVA Thursday Night before slowly moving south of the area on Friday. High pressure then builds in from the northeast Friday into Saturday. A southerly flow returns and develops late in the weekend and early next week as High Pressure moves offshore and a strong upper level low dips into the Upper Midwest. A cold front will approach the Eastern Seaboard Tuesday before moving offshore by Wednesday.

Next week will start off with chances of showers and thunderstorms as a southerly flow returns and pumps moist hot air into the area. By Tuesday a strong cold front will approach the area, in addition to a dipping jet stream and a clash with the high temperatures and humidity, the likelihood of significant severe weather will be probable provided this scenario plays out. Dry conditions will return for Wednesday through the end of the week. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s with high humidity. By late Tuesday into Wednesday cooler than average temperatures with drier air will move in place for the rest of the week. Highs will be 5-10 (max) degrees cooler and overnight lows will drop into the 50’s and 60’s through the end of the week. Water conditions will begin to deteriorate late Sunday and continue through Tuesday or Wednesday with Cautious to Hazardous conditions and Small Craft Advisories likely. Surf and beach conditions will be OK to Cautious with gusty winds, rougher and higher surf and rip currents. Water temperatures  will remain below average with the continue upwelling from the southerly flow before shifting late Tuesday or Wednesday and allowing water temperatures to average off again. The surf is taking some of the biggest hits with temperatures in the mid 50’s to low 60’s recently.

The tropics are quiet again.

Have a great weekend and thanks for reading!

Saturday
Sky:  Sunny becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:  Low to mid 80’s inland, mid to upper 70’s along the coast
Low:  Mid to upper 60’s with low 60’s across the north
UV Index:  9-10/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:38am
Sunset: 8:26pm
Full Moon: 7:26am


Sunday
Sky:  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  20%-40% chance of scattered showers and/or thunderstorms
Temperatures
High:  Upper 70’s to upper 80’s
Low:  Upper 60’s to mid 70’s
UV Index:  4-9/15 (Moderate-Very High)
Sunrise: 5:38am
Sunset: 8:26pm


Friday Night Surface Analysis



Saturday Surface Analysis



Sunday Surface Analysis



Friday – Monday Precipitation Total



Severe Weather Potential for Tuesday - Wednesday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts
Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  75°F
Saturday
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Sunday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Sunday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides

Sandy Hook Tides




Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  75°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: E 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: SE 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: SSW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: S 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  67°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: ENE 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: SSW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay at Island Beach State Park
Water Temperature:  78°F
Saturday
Wind:  ENE 8 knots becoming ESE in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  SSE 5-7 knots becoming variable and less than 5 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Sunday
Wind:  SWS 6-9 knots increasing to 10-13 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Sunday Night
Wind:  SW 11 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides
   
Barnegat Bay Tides


]

Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  73°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: ENE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: E 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: SSW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides

Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  70°F-77°F
Saturday
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Sunday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Sunday Night
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  0-1 feet

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware Bay Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  70°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: ENE 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: E 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Sunday Morning
Winds: SSW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperatures 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)








Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!



*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)


Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Sunday Weather Update
« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2014, 02:06:37 PM »
The Severe Weather potential that existed in the models last week, has lessened and looks to be spread out over several days. There is a chance of severe weather starting today (Sunday) and again on Monday and Tuesday. Today's threat will be for strong to severe storms capable of producing heavy rains, dangerous lightning, and damaging winds; hail and tornadoes are always possible. Storms will be scattered to widely scattered late afternoon through the overnight.

Monday will bring the highest risk of storms; on Tuesday that threat will lessen some.

Over the next 7 days, upwards of 1-4+ inches of rain are possible with Northern and Northwestern NJ in the bulls eye. This amount of rain could cause all types of flooding. Be sure to check River Forecasts if you reside near a river or stream that is known to flood.

Tides are running high with the full moon. Tides are at or below High Astronomical Tide values, so very minor coastal flooding is possible in some areas. South/Southwest winds will keep flooding risks to a minimum as well. No Advisories or Warnings have been posted at this time, but areas that are prone to full moon flooding could see some flooding.

Small Craft Advisories are in effect today through Monday at 6 AM and could be extended.

Full Outlook to come...

Have a great rest of the weekend.

Sunday Severe Weather Risks






Monday & Tuesday Severe Weather Risks







7 Day Rain Forecast


Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: NWS PHI Statement on Severe Weather Sunday Night
« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2014, 07:03:55 PM »
Quote
Tonight's strong thunderstorm potential in Eastern Pa and Western NJ:

Based on upstream radar extrapolation and the HRRR rapid update model maintaining the strength of the band of strong storms upstream in central Pennsylvania, we are expecting a band of at least scattered heavy thunderstorms with gusty west winds to move into the Poconos between 815 and 915 PM, then progress eastward to the Interstate 95 corridor between 11 PM and 1230 AM. Some of the storms will be rather strong with potential for 50 mph wind gusts, lightning strikes and wind taking down a few tree limbs and possibly blocking a few roads. This band should decay as it reaches the NJ coast around 2 am. The greatest risk for strong storms with scattered power outages appears to lie from east central Pennsylvania near Reading, northeastward to the Lehigh valley and Poconos into west central and northwest NJ before midnight.

Rainfall could easily total 1 inch in 30 minutes in several locations of eastern PA and western NJ.
Those living in or traveling through E Pa and Western NJ should be alert for possible power outages late this evening and possible overnight travel adjustments, if damaging storms occur.
If there is any damaging wind, hail, unusual flooding...please report the time, location, county, specific wind or lightning damage, and/or size of hail... but whatever you do safety first!

This event should not be quite as bad as that which  occurred this past Tuesday evening.

This message will be updated before 10 PM - if the band of storms looks to be weaker than currently expected.

For those looking ahead...we are expecting a very active Monday afternoon and evening and again Tuesday afternoon and evening. This means a few storms with greater localized impact than what will occur tonight. More on this tomorrow.

This message was posted at 657 PM.

Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Western NJ
« Reply #3 on: July 13, 2014, 08:09:08 PM »
The SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 PM for Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, Salem, Somerset, Sussex & Warren Counties.

Currently a line of severe warned storms in Pennsylvania and Maryland are moving northeast. This line of storms is forming a loosely organized bow shaped radar return with heavy rains, dangerous lightning, and damaging winds hail and even a brief tornado.

Stay alert and aware for any weather warnings issued.



Severe Thunderstorm Watch #416


Offline fluke - u

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 t^ .. Thanks Matt. I want to sign up for your storm alerts ... ovrbt
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Offline Pfishingruven

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t^ .. Thanks Matt. I want to sign up for your storm alerts ... ovrbt
;D

My twitter auto posts alerts from NWS PHI and NWS NYC...mrt031079. However, you would be much better off following the NWS Philadelphia, NWS New York City, the two bots that auto post and then the specialty offices like Storm Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center and such. Smartphone Apps are pretty good for receiving alerts as well; just uses a decent amount of data unless you have them sent as texts if you have unlimited texts.

 

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