NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: Jan 19-23, 2015

[Pfishingruven]

A very unsettled start to the week, settling for the end of the week with water conditions also cautious to borderline to start the week. Rain and clouds should clear out for Monday making for a mostly dry and mix of sunshine and clouds kind of day. There may be some lingering clouds and even showers early in the day. However, the bulk of the system has already moved out of the immediate area. Any water remaining on surfaces will freeze Sunday Night into Monday, so Monday morning could be icy until temperatures rise above the freezing mark! Tuesday will be mostly dry again with more sun than clouds during the day. Clouds will increase throughout the late day with chances of rain and snow showers possible at night, mainly for northern parts of the state. Wednesday will bring another system that will form to the south and reorganize off the coast, becoming yet another coastal low/Nor’Easter tracking up the coast. The area will definitely see rain both from the low over land and then again when it gets over the Atlantic. Rain could become a wintry mix/precipitation, so some areas could see snow. Right now, northern and western parts of the state could see accumulating snow, but statewide needs to be aware. By Thursday, skies will clear again with mostly dry conditions. There may be some lingering scattered precipitation depending on the timing and track of the system. Friday will be dry with a mix of sun and clouds, increasing clouds late as the possibility of another low pressure system could affect the area into the weekend. High temperatures will be in the 30’s and 40’s with overnight lows in the teens to 30’s. Water conditions will be cautious on Monday with Small Craft Advisories. Winds could gust to 30 knots with seas to 5 feet. Tuesday will start off cautious and improve to borderline during the day. Wednesday looks good on forecasts right now, but if a coastal low works up the coast, expect cautious to hazardous conditions. Thursday could be another borderline day depending on how Wednesday plays out and Friday looks good again, deteriorating during the overnight. Surf and beach conditions will be ok to cautious on Monday, good for Tuesday, ok to questionable for Wednesday depending on the system or not, and good for Thursday and Friday. Surf will be 3-5 feet improving to 2-4 and then 1-3 feet. Water temperatures are steady in the 30’s and 40’s with offshore waters in the 50’s. UV Index will be Low at 0-2/15.

Low pressure along the Mid Atlantic Coast will continue to track northward, reaching New England by Monday Morning. High pressure is expected across the Southeast States through Monday and Tuesday. Weak low pressure will pass over the region late Tuesday Night and Wednesday, followed by weak high pressure for the end of the week. A low pressure system to our north and its associated cold front may affect the region next weekend.

The weekend looks 50%-50% of being nice or being wet depending on the involvement of a low pressure system to the north. If it stays far enough north it will be mostly dry with some scattered showers/wintry precipitation mainly for Northern NJ. If the low comes far enough south it could be wet and even wintry precipitation statewide. There is too much uncertainty this far out to say one way or another. Highs will be in the 30’s with lows in the teens to 20’s. Water, surf and beach conditions do look to deteriorate on Saturday becoming cautious with gusty winds and building seas for Saturday Afternoon through at least late Sunday.

Have a great week and thanks for reading!

Monday
Sky:  Mostly to partly sunny becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear, Windy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance during the day, 0%-20% chance of snow showers at night (mainly northern areas)
Temperatures
High:    Mid 30’s to low 40’s
Low:   Mid 20’s inland, low 30’s along the coast, upper teens northern areas
UV Index:  1-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:15am
Sunset: 4:59pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Partly sunny to mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance during the day, 30% chance of rain/snow at night
Temperatures
High:   Mid 30’s to low 40’s
Low:   Upper 20’s to low 30’s inland, low to mid 30’s along the coast, low to mid 20’s northern areas
UV Index:  1-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:14am
Sunset: 5:00pm
New Moon: 8:15am


Wednesday
Sky:   Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  30%-50% chance of rain/snow all day
Temperatures
High:    Low 30’s to low 40’s
Low:   Low 20’s inland, upper 20’s along the coast, mid to upper teens northern areas
UV Index:  0-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:14am
Sunset: 5:01pm


Thursday
Sky:   Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   low to mid 30’s
Low:   Low 20’s inland, mid to upper 20’s along the coast, mid teens northern areas
UV Index:  1-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:13am
Sunset: 5:02pm


Friday
Sky:   Partly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 30’s
Low:   Low 20’s inland, mid to upper 20’s along the coast, mid teens northern areas
UV Index:  1-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 7:12am
Sunset: 5:04pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  37°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  W 10-15 knots increasing to 15-20 knots in the afternoon with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  3-6 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  W 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots in the evening
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  3-6 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  W 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots becoming NW after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  N 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  N 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Friday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                         



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  37°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  SE 5 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 18 to 25 knots
Seas:  SE 5 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WNW 14 to 18 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: W 12 to 17 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NE 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon\
Winds: ENE 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: NNW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: NW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  42°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 19 to 25 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WNW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: W 11 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NE 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: NW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: NW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: WNW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  36°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  W 15-18 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  W 14 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  W 9-12 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  W 5-7 knots becoming variable and less than 5 knots in the evening
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  Variable winds less than 5 knots becoming NNW 5-7 knots in the morning
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  NNW 6-9 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  NW 8 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  WNW 6 knots becoming variable and less than 5 knots in the evening
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  44°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 19 to 25 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WNW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: W 11 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NE 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: NW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: NW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: WNW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  35°F-38°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  W 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots increasing to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the afternoon, then diminishing to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots late
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  W 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots late
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday Night
Wind:  S 5 knots becoming E after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:   1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday
Winds:  NW 5-10 knots diminishing to 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday Night
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots diminishing to 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Friday
Wind:  NW 5 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  54°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 20 to 27 knots
Seas:  SSE 8 feet at 9 seconds
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 21 to 29 knots
Seas:  SSE 8 feet at 9 seconds
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  ESE 5 feet at 10 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: W 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 10 seconds
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NE 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 11 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: E 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Thursday Morning
Winds: NNW 12 to 17 knots
Seas:  ENE 5 feet at 7 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  E 4 feet at 7 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: WNW 12 to 17 knots
Seas:  ENE 4 feet at 9 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  ENE 3 feet at 9 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

This weeks snow event has come into a little more clarity. A low pressure system coming out of Canada/Upper Great Lakes, another Clipper System, will move to the southeast, then northeast cutting across the region. Along with boundaries and low pressure to our south, this Clipper will combine, likely off our coast, before heading out to sea. After this gets out over the Atlantic, there should be minimal involvement as it moves off to the east-northeast. With that being said, there is still a lot of uncertainty with the track of this system and as always, track will determine the amount of snow. As it stands today, snow totals will increase from south to north, with lowest amounts along coastal areas. Some areas will not see entirely snow either, but a mix even changing over to rain and then back to snow overnight. With clippers, this will be an all day, starting in the early morning and extending through later evening/night. Snow will be light to moderate at times. Areas experiencing any heavier banding will obviously have heavier periods of snow.

Below is the current track with modeled outputs showing the uncertainty. There is also Snowfall Total Forecasts and Maximum Snowfall Totals. All of these are based off of this afternoon's computer models. Stay tuned for updates, as these numbers will likely change. However, it is pretty certain that there will be a snow/mix/rain event on Wednesday. The details are still a little blurry.

Storm Track




Snowfall Total Forecasts




Maximum Snowfall Totals

[Pfishingruven]

Tomorrow will be a wintry mess from a weak winter storm/clipper coming out of Canada and the Upper Great Lakes. After exiting into the Atlantic the system will track well offshore. This storm will affect the area starting in the afternoon with the bulk of it coming in the late evening/rush hour into the overnight before tapering off into the early morning hours. The storm track has dropped farther south, bringing the heaviest axis of snow to Central & Southern Western NJ and Eastern Central & Southern PA. Anywhere from 1-3 inches is likely with 4 inches on the very high/worse case scenario and some areas only receiving less than an inch and a wintry mix. This is another nuisance snow...just enough to make traveling dangerous! This will absolute affect Wednesday Evenings commute and could make roads messy for Thursday Morning as well.

Water conditions do not look too bad for Wednesday. Forecasts are accurate for the week, still. Conditions will be affected by this system on Thursday.

Below is the Briefing from the NWS PHI, Snowfall Totals, and Maximum Totals.

A quick look ahead to Saturday...watching a system that may come out of the south and exit into the Atlantic off of the Southeastern US, coming up the coast as a solid Nor'Easter. Way too early to call rain/snow, track, intensity etc...just know, Saturday weather could be affected and it will certainly impact water conditions.

Be safe!

NWS PHI Briefing

Snowfall Totals




Maximum Snowfall

[Pfishingruven]

The last few models have come in snowier for the Philly Area, including the heaviest axis of snow into Central and Southern NJ. Snow totals are up an inch or two. These totals still come in around the 2-3 and 3-4 inch range with maximums upped to 4-5 inches. Other than that, nothing major.

[Pfishingruven]

As snow comes to an end areas of freezing fog and/or freezing drizzle could develop across much of the state tonight and into Thursday. If this occurs, trace accumulations of ice on surfaces and roadways is possible causing dangerous conditions in addition to already snow/ice covered surfaces!

Be safe!

[Bucktail]

Thanks Matt.

[Hunter 2]

 
You were right Matt. I got around 1/2" in Matawan. Had a little bit of ice build up on the windshield this morning

[fluke - u]

  .. Thanks Matt, I received nothing ...