NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekend Edition: Feb 14-15, 2015

[Pfishingruven]

Another blast of wintry weather and cold air with hazardous water conditions. There is more winter weather in store for this weekend. A low pressure system coming out of Canada will move across the region and over the ocean before becoming a coastal storm/Nor’Easter that will move off to the northeast into New England. Saturday will start off cloudy with precipitation moving in later afternoon. This could be rain/mix/snow depending on location and will eventually change over  to all snow for the entire state. This system will continue into Saturday Night and Sunday Morning before clearing out for late Sunday and Sunday Night. Anywhere from less than an inch upwards to 4-6 inches are possible into Northern NJ. The models have gone back and forth on the track for this storm. A northern and eastern  track keeps less snow across the state and the heaviest axis across Northern NJ.  A more southern track and a little more to the west could bring bigger snows across the state and especially to coastal areas. Some of the afternoon models today have trended back to a little more southern track and the uncertainty is definitely leaning to the south. Worse case scenarios are 2-8 inches statewide, but with a shift south, worse case scenario could be 4-12 statewide with more of an average of 3-10 inches. The difference in this track will be 50-100 miles and will make all the difference. Model resolutions are not always this accurate, so this is where the uncertainty and mistakes can come into play. Evening models won’t be out for another 6 hours or so. While snow may be the headlines, the cold and wind will really be the bigger news. Frigid Arctic air will move over the region again. Lows in the negatives to single digits with wind to 50 mph are likely. This will make wind chills well below zero. This will create dangerously cold conditions. Winds will also cause blizzard like conditions and blowing snow with very limited visibility. Roads and surfaces will not unfreeze for several days. There is always the potential of power loss due to snow build up and fallen trees. This could cause heating issues for anyone who loses power and always brings the increased risk of carbon monoxide poisoning due to improper use of secondary heating sources. There is also the potential for some coastal effects of flooding, higher tides and beach erosion. Right now storm surge guidance is not indicating anything even minor, but it is always possible and likely with a changed track. Water, surf and beach conditions will be cautious becoming hazardous with winds to 50 knots and seas  7-14 feet. Water temperatures are colder into the upper 20’s in rivers and bays (freezing point depression due to the saltwater) and in the 30’s to low 40’s for inshore and offshore ocean waters. UV Index will be Low to Moderate at 1-3/15. I will be watching for any changes and updates to the forecast.

Arctic high pressure will build over the region on Friday Afternoon before moving offshore Friday Night. A low pressure system dropping south out of Canada and across the Eastern Great Lakes on Saturday will rapidly intensify as it passes south of Long Island and Cape Cod Saturday Night. Another Arctic High Pressure System will build east late Sunday through Monday. A low pressure system should develop over the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday and quickly track off the Carolina Coast Tuesday Night. A third Arctic High Pressure System will then move into the Northern Plains on Wednesday and slowly move east on Thursday.

Next week starts out dry and cold on Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday could bring some more snow, possibly another coastal storm. Thursday and Friday look dry so far. Highs will only be in the teens and 20’s with overnight lows in the single digits to teens. Water, surf and beach conditions will be mostly cautious to hazardous for most of the week. Tuesday and the end of the week could see some improving conditions.

Have a great weekend and thanks for reading!

NWS PHI Briefing

NWS NYC Briefing

NWS Winter Weather Safety

NWS Wind Chill Information

NWS Hypothermia & Frostbite

Saturday
Sky:  Cloudy, Windy
Precipitation:  Snow/Rain/mix changing to all snow at night
Temperatures
High:     Upper 20’s to low 40’s
Low:     low teens inland, upper teens to low 20’s along the coast, upper single digits northern areas
UV Index:  1-3/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:51am
Sunset: 5:30pm


Sunday
Sky:  Cloudy becoming partly cloudy, Windy
Precipitation:  Snow showers/blowing snow during the day, 0%-slight chance at night
Temperatures
High:     Low teens to low 20’s
Low:     Low single digits (1) inland, mid to upper single digits (5-10) along the coast, mid negative single digits (-5) northern areas
UV Index:  2-3/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 6:50am
Sunset: 5:31pm


Friday Night Surface Analysis



Saturday Surface Analysis



Sunday Surface Analysis



Friday – Monday Precipitation Total



Storm Track




Snowfall Forecast Totals Saturday - Sunday




Maximum Snowfall





Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts
Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  30°F
Saturday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1nm or less
Surf (Ocean):  3-6 feet
Saturday Night
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  SW 20-25 knots with gusts to 35 knots becoming NW 25-30 knots with gusts to 50 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-4 feet, Visibility 1nm or less
Surf (Ocean):   3-6 feet
Sunday
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 30 knots with gusts to 50 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  4-7 feet
Sunday Night
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 25-30 knots diminishing to 20-25 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-4 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  4-7 feet

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides

Sandy Hook Tides




Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  30°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: SW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 11 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  3-6 feet
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  SSW 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  3-6 feet
Sunday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 30 to 40 knots
Seas:  WNW 6 feet at 5 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  4-7 feet
Sunday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 33 to 44 knots
Seas:  WNW 7 feet at 5 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  4-7 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  34°F
Saturday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  5-8 feet
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 19 to 26 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  5-8 feet
Sunday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 32 to 43 knots
Seas:  NW 6 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  5-8 feet
Sunday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 36 to 48 knots
Seas:  NNW 7 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  5-8 feet


Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay at Island Beach State Park
Water Temperature:  28°F
Saturday
Wind:  SSW 9-12 knots increasing to 15-18 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Saturday Night
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  SSW 16-21 knots becoming WNW 26-31 knots with gusts to 46 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 35-40 knots decreasing to 30-35 knots in the afternoon with gusts to 50 knots
Seas:  4 feet
Surf:  2-3 feet
Sunday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  WNW 25-27 knots
Seas:  4 feet subsiding to 2 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides
   
Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  37°F
Saturday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 17 to 23 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  3-7 feet
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 21 to 29 knots
Seas:  SSW 5 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  3-7 feet
Sunday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 35 to 47 knots
Seas:  WNW 7 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  5-8 feet
Sunday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 34 to 46 knots
Seas:  NW 7 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  5-8 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides

Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  32°F
Saturday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet, Visibility 1nm or less
Surf:  1-3 feet
Saturday Night
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  W 20-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots becoming NW 25-30 knots with gusts to 45 knots late evening, then W 30-35 knots with gusts to 50 knots
Seas:  4-7 feet, Visibility 1nm or less
Surf:  3-5 feet
Sunday
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 30-40 knots diminishing to 25-35 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  4-7 feet, Freezing spray, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  3-5 feet
Sunday Night
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 25-30 knots diminishing to 20-25 knots after midnight
Seas:  3-5 feet, Heavy freezing spray, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  2-4 feet

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware Bay Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  43°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: WSW 11 to 14 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 11 seconds
Saturday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 23 to 31 knots
Seas:  SW 5 feet at 5 seconds
Sunday Morning
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 34 to 46 knots
Seas:  WNW 13 feet at 8 seconds
Sunday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
GALE WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 37 to 50 knots
Seas:  NW 14 feet at 8 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

The forecast for Saturday, Saturday Night and Sunday has not changed much! The track is much more certain at this point and overall the forecast has not changed in the last few days. The low pressure system will track directly across the middle of the state and exit into the Atlantic. It will intensify as it moves east and then rapidly intensify once over ocean waters, heading northeast into New England. Snow has begun across Western and Northern parts of the state. Snow will gradually increase and become heavy into the evening and tonight. Typical with a clipper turned coastal storm, banding will setup causing even heavier rates of snow. Areas from Central and Southern NJ could see a mix changing over to snow and even the potential for ice. The official forecast had heavy icing for some of these areas, which has since been retracted. However, if temperature gradients don't change as forecast, it is still a possibility and as always, will be one of the worst effects of the storm. As the storm progresses, Arctic air will move in and winds will increase. Winds to 60 mph are likely along the coast. Power outages are possible and will be likely. Coupled with temperatures near 0 degrees, this will make for the worst of the storm. Coastal effects will be minimal, based upon the track of the storm. However, high winds, high surf, and blow out tides are likely. Coastal flooding does not look like a concern, however areas that are prone to flooding may have minor flooding as usual. Tidal guidance is normal to just slightly above normal.

Many Advisories, Watches and Warnings have been posted statewide, including Winter Weather, Wind and Marine Warnings.

Be safe! A quick look ahead for next week...watching another potential Winter Storm/Nor'Easter for Tuesday/Wednesday.

NWS PHI Briefing

NWS NYC Briefing

Storm Track




Snowfall Totals




Snowfall Maximums