NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: March 2-6, 2015

[Pfishingruven]

A very unsettled start to the week with mixed water conditions. Monday will be mostly dry. Some lingering rain and wintry precipitation is possible early, however decreasing clouds will be the norm with sun making an appearance. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday will bring precipitation from snow to a mix to just rain. Wednesday looks like just rain, but may see some snow or mix at night for the entire state, as temperatures will rise into the 50’s and then below freezing overnight. Tuesday and Thursday could be snow, mix and/or rain depending on location. Friday will see clear and dry conditions. Wednesday’s rains will run a higher risk of potential flooding. With frozen rivers, breakup possible and snow cover, still, in addition to rain, could bring some localized and river flooding. Highs will range from the 20’s to the 50’s with overnight lows from single digits to the 30’s. Water conditions will be cautious to hazardous most of the week, with Tuesday and later Friday being good days. Surf and beach conditions will be good to ok. Water temperatures are steady in the 30’s with offshore waters in the mid 40’s. UV Index will be mostly Moderate with a couple of days of Low at 1-5/15.

A cold front over the Ohio Valley will move into the area by Monday Morning. High pressure builds eastward into the Mid Atlantic Monday Afternoon through Tuesday Morning. Low pressure is anticipated to move across the Great Lakes late Tuesday, then down the St. Lawrence River Valley by early Wednesday. This low is forecast to pull a cold front slowly through the region on Wednesday. Weak low pressure is expected to ride along the front on Thursday before high pressure build into the area from the west for Friday into the weekend.

The weekend looks dry so far with highs in the mid to upper 30’s with overnight lows in the upper teens and 20’s. Water, surf and beach conditions will be borderline to cautious for both Saturday and Sunday.

Have a great week and thanks for reading! Any updates to snow forecasts or flooding potential to follow…

Monday
Sky:  Cloudy clearing to partly cloudy to mostly clear, Windy
Precipitation:  0%-40% chance of snow/rain showers during the day, 0%-slight chance at night
Temperatures
High:    Low 30’s to low 40’s
Low:   Mid to upper teens inland, low to mid 20’s along the coast, mid single digits across northern areas
UV Index:  3-4/15 (Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:29am
Sunset: 5:48pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy to cloudy
Precipitation:  40%-90% chance of snow/wintry mix/rain depending on location
Temperatures
High:   Upper 20’s to upper 30’s
Low:   Low to mid 30’s inland and along the coast, mid to upper 20’s across northern areas
UV Index:  3-5/15 (Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:28am
Sunset: 5:49pm


Wednesday
Sky:   Cloudy
Precipitation:  40%-90% chance of rain during the day changing over to snow/mix/rain at night, Flooding potential
Temperatures
High:    Mid 40’s to low 50’s
Low:   Low 30’s inland and along the coast, mid 20’s across northern areas
UV Index:  1-3/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:26am
Sunset: 5:50pm


Thursday
Sky:   Cloudy becoming partly to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-70% chance of snow during the day, 0%-60% chance of snow at night (mainly southern areas)
Temperatures
High:   Low to upper 30’s
Low:   Low teens inland, upper teens to low 20’s along the coast, mid single digits across northern areas
UV Index:  2-4/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:25am
Sunset: 5:51pm
Full Moon: 1:07pm


Friday
Sky:   Sunny to mostly sunny becoming mostly clear
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Upper 20’s to low 30’s
Low:   Upper teens to low 20’s inland, mid 20’s along the coast, low teens across northern areas
UV Index:  3-4/15 (Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:23am
Sunset: 5:52pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  29°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  W 10-15 knots becoming NW 15-20 knots in the afternoon with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots diminishing to 10-15 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  N 5-10 knots becoming SE in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  S 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  W 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  4-6 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  4-6 feet
Thursday
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Friday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                          



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  29°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  W 2 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 20 to 26 knots
Seas:  WSW 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NNW 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  SSE 1 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: S 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SSE 1 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WSW 15 to 21 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NNW 16 to 21 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NW 15 to 21 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NNW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: NW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  SSE 1 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  35°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  WSW 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 19 to 25 knots
Seas:  NW 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NW 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: NNW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  NNE 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NW 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  N 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: NW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  30°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  WNW 18-21 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  WNW 10-14 knots becoming NNW after midnight with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  Variable winds less than 5 knots becoming S 5-9 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  S 11-16 knots becoming SW after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  SW 10-13 knots decreasing 7-10 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  WNW 16 knots with gusts to 22 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 18-21 knots with gusts to 29 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NW 13-16 knots decreasing to 10-13 knots after midnight with gusts to 22 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  34°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WNW 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 21 to 29 knots
Seas:  NW 4 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NNE 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 4 to 6 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 20 to 27 knots
Seas:  S 5 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNW 20 to 27 knots
Seas:  N 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 17 to 23 knots
Seas:  WSW 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: N 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  NNE 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: NW 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  NNE 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  29°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  W 15-20 knots becoming NW 20-25 knots by late morning
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots becoming N 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  N 5 knots becoming SE late in the morning and afternoon
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  S 10-15 knots becoming SW 15-20 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-4 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SW 15-20 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots in the afternoon
Seas:   2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots, increasing to 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots after midnight
Seas:  3-4 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  2-3 feet
Thursday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds:  NW 20-25 knots
Seas:  3-5 feet, Light freezing spray
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  N 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Light freezing spray
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday
Wind:  N 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  44°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 19 to 25 knots
Seas:  SSE 5 feet at 7 seconds
Monday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 24 to 33 knots
Seas:  WNW 7 feet at 6 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds: N 6 to 9 knots
Seas:  NW 3 feet at 4 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: S 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 11 seconds
Wednesday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 23 to 31 knots
Seas:  SSW 8 feet at 7 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 15 to 21 knots
Seas:  S 8 feet at 8 seconds
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NNW 18 to 25 knots
Seas:  S 6 feet at 9 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  S 6 feet at 9 seconds
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NNW 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  NNW 5 feet at 5 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 6 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

Here is an update on the impending Winter Weather:

Tuesday: Winter Weather Advisories have been posted for all of the state except southeastern counties. Snow changing over to a mix, including ice will begin this afternoon and continue into the overnight. Most of the state will see less than an inch of snow accumulation, northern and northwestern parts of the state could see 1-3. Ice accumulations to 0.25 inches are possible in some parts with Western and Northern NJ seeing up to 0.10 inches. Areas south and east of the I95 Corridor will not likely see any accumulation, however icing is still possible. Any amount of ice will make surfaces dangerous. Some areas in Southern NJ may only see rain or freezing rain becoming a mix. Changeovers could be numerous and unpredictable. As warm air aloft causes melting in the atmosphere, the water then enters cold air closer to the ground and refreezes. The bulk of the system will come through this evening, right around commute time and will go throughout the night and even into Wednesday.

Wednesday-Thursday: Wednesday Day will bring rain and as cold air moves in with an approaching cold front changeover to snow late evening/night into early Thursday. The potential for a significant to major winter storm is possible with 4-6 inches of accumulation statewide with 6-8 inches possible in Northeastern Monmouth County. 7-12 inches are a worst case scenario right now. More updates to follow on this snow event.

**Not all graphics are out yet or available. NWS PHI & OKX are not coordinated.


Be safe!

NWS PHI Briefing

Tuesday Ice Totals



Wednesday Snowfall Forecast Totals

[IrishAyes]