NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: Apr 20-24, 2015

[Pfishingruven]

A wet start with some mixed days of showers this week and mostly hazardous to cautious water conditions. Rain will move in during the overnight/mornings hours and continue throughout Monday and into Monday Evening/Night before tapering off, possibly lingering into early Tuesday. Monday’s rains will be widespread and continuous with over 1.5 inches of rain possible and locally higher amounts. Monday’s rain will also come with thunderstorms and the potential for some severe weather. Heavy rains, dangerous lightning, damaging winds, hail and the isolated chance of tornadoes is possible in the afternoon into evening. If there is a break in daytime rain and any daytime heating from sun that takes place, additional instability is possible and will enhance the risk of severe weather. Tuesday will begin clearing with a mix of sun and clouds and will be a nice day. Wednesday will bring in chances of showers again, mainly scattered to widely scattered. Thursday and Friday will be dry with mix of sun and clouds again. Temperatures will vary a bit this week, with some overnight lows down into the Frost Zone. Monday will be the warmest with highs into the low 70’s with the rest of the week in the 50’s and 60’s. Friday Night will be the coldest with lows down into the low 30’s and 40’s. The remainder of the week will be in the 30’s to 50’s with the coolest temperatures across northern areas. Water conditions are not looking favorable, although rivers, bays and even some inshore waters may have some pockets of good conditions midweek. Monday will have cautious conditions for bays and hazardous conditions on ocean waters. Winds will gust to 35+ knots with seas to 10 feet. Tuesday and Wednesday will see a mix of cautious to hazardous conditions with bays becoming better throughout the day. Thursday will be the best of the days with good conditions for most, except some areas could see some gusty winds and offshore waters will be cautious. Friday will be a mostly cautious to borderline day with some good conditions in the bays. Surf and beach conditions will echo water conditions with hazardous conditions on Monday with gusty winds to 35+ knots, rough and high surf at 6-10 feet. The rest of the week will be cautious to ok then ok to good with winds lower to around 20 knots or so and surf decreasing back down to 2-4 feet even 1-3 feet in places by Friday. Surf conditions should generally improve each day as the week progresses. Water temperatures are slowly warming with most waters in the 40’s, but some appearances of 50’s beginning to show up. Warmer offshore waters are slowly moving north as well. UV Index will range from Low to High at 1-7/15.

High pressure will move farther off the New England Coast through Sunday Night. Low pressure over the Midwest on Sunday Afternoon will strengthen as it track northward into the Great Lakes Sunday Night. The low will lift into Ontario early in the week. A warm front will move northward into the Mid Atlantic on Monday before a cold front moves through Monday Night. The low pressure system over Ontario will slowly move eastward midweek before stalling over Eastern Canada and New England through next weekend.

The weekend looks dry, but cooler with highs in the 50’s and low 60’s with overnight lows in the 30’s and 40’s. Water, surf and beach conditions will start off cautious and improve slightly to borderline.

Have a great week and thanks for reading!

Monday
Sky:   Cloudy
Precipitation:  Rain during the day, heavy at times with thunderstorms, some severe, 60%-80% chance of showers and/or thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:    Upper 60’s to low 70’s inland, low to mid 60’s along the coast, upper 50’s across northern areas
Low:   Low to mid 50’s
UV Index:  1-6/15 (Low-High)
Sunrise: 6:12am
Sunset: 7:39pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Partly to mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear
Precipitation:  0%-30% chance of showers during the day (mainly northern areas), 0%-slight chance at night
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 60’s
Low:   Low 40’s to low 50’s
UV Index:  6-7/15 (High)
Sunrise: 6:11am
Sunset: 7:40pm


Wednesday
Sky:  Partly to mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-40% chance of showers all day
Temperatures
High:    Upper 50’s to mid 60’s
Low:   Upper 30’s to upper 40’s
UV Index:  4-6/15 (Moderate-High)
Sunrise: 6:09am
Sunset: 7:41pm


Thursday
Sky:   Partly to mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Mid 50’s to low 60’s
Low:   Mid 30’s to mid 40’s
UV Index:  4-6/15 (Moderate-High)
Sunrise: 6:08am
Sunset: 7:42pm


Friday
Sky:   Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Low to upper 50’s
Low:   Low 30’s to low 40’s
UV Index:  5-7/15 (Moderate-High)
Sunrise: 6:07am
Sunset: 7:43pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Monday Thunderstorm Outlook




Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  50°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  E 20-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet, Patchy fog, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):   6-10 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots becoming S with gusts to 20 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet, Patchy fog, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  6-10 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  W 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Patchy fog, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  5-8 feet
Tuesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  W 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots becoming SW 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  5-8 feet
Wednesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots increasing to 15-20 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  4-6 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  W 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf (Ocean):  4-6 feet
Thursday
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Friday
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, then 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                         



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  50°F
Monday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ESE 28 to 38 knots
Seas:  ESE 8 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  6-10 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSE 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  SE 8 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  6-10 feet
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  SE 6 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  5-8 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 15 to 21 knots
Seas:  SE 5 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  5-8 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 20 to 28 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  W 2 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  W 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  46°F
Monday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SE 26 to 35 knots
Seas:  ESE 9 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  6-10 feet
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: S 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  SE 8 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  6-10 feet
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  SE 5 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  5-8 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  ESE 5 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  5-8 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SW 11 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 16 to 21 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 15 to 21 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  WNW 2 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  46°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  SE 17-22 knots decreasing to 11-16 knots in the afternoon with gusts to 31 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  S 12 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  W 11-14 knots with gusts to 24 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  WSW 10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  SW 8-13 knots becoming NE in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SW 8-12 knots becoming W after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  W 8-11 knots increasing to 12-15 knots in the afternoon with gusts to 27 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  WNW 8-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  47°F
Monday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSE 21 to 28 knots
Seas:  SE 8 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  6-10 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  SE 7 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  6-10 feet
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 15 to 21 knots
Seas:   SE 5 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  5-8 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  5-8 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSW 14 to 18 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 14 to 20 knots
Seas:  WNW 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 17 to 24 knots
Seas:  WNW 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 20 to 26 knots
Seas:  WNW 4 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  49°F -54°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  SE 20-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots becoming S 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet, Fog, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  W 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon
Seas:   2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots becoming W after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday
Winds:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots
Seas:  3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots diminishing to 10-15 knots
Seas:  3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  43°F
Monday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ESE 25 to 33 knots
Seas:  SE 8 feet at 7 seconds
Monday Night
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  SSE 11 feet at 9 seconds
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SE 8 feet at 9 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SE 8 feet at 9 seconds
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 15 to 21 knots
Seas:  ESE 5 feet at 8 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 19 to 26 knots
Seas:  SSE 6 feet at 7 seconds
Thursday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 23 to 30 knots
Seas:  W 6 feet at 5 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 20 to 28 knots
Seas:  WNW 6 feet at 6 seconds
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  WNW 4 feet at 5 seconds
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  WNW 4 feet at 5 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

The thunderstorm and severe weather risk has extended over much of the state with Marginal, Slight and Enhanced Risks this afternoon and evening. Storms capable of heavy rains, dangerous lighting, damaging winds, hail and tornadoes will be possible.

Storms will be capable of supercells and multicellular storms. These cells will be the ones capable of damaging straightline winds, hail and tornadoes. Additional instability along coastal areas where the warm front will interact with sea breeze fronts.

Be alert to changing weather conditions and have a way of receiving weather warnings.

[fluke - u]

  ...Thanks Matt, We need a little more green on the graph next time ....

[Pfishingruven]

...Thanks Matt, We need a little more green on the graph next time ....

You sound like Capt Joe ! I agree, though...enough already.

[Pfishingruven]

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued Tornado Watch #90 for NJ including Camden, Cumberland, Gloucester, and Salem Counties until 10:00 PM. Areas of PA, DE, MD, and VA are also in the watch.

As rained and clouds moved away, the sun has come out and will further daytime heating and instability.

Be alert and be safe!

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SPC Tornado Watch #90
[/color]

[Pfishingruven]

Thunderstorms are beginning to initiate west and south of the state and will move in later this afternoon and evening. Some of the thunderstorms could be severe, as there is a Marginal Risk across the state today, issued by the SPC. Some thunderstorms will be capable of heavy rains, dangerous lightning, damaging winds, wind gusts and a lower possibility of hail.

Be aware of changing weather and have a way of receiving Warnings! There is only a 20% chance of a Watch (Severe Thunderstorm Watch) being issued, so any advisories will come as Special Weather Statements and Warnings!

Be safe!!