Author Topic: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: June 15-19, 2015  (Read 2297 times)

Offline Pfishingruven

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A wet and stormy week with a cautious start for water conditions. As the heat and humidity continue, rain and thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Tuesday with Wednesday through Friday. Monday and Tuesday will see more widely scattered to widespread and organized rain and thunderstorms where Wednesday through Friday will be a more scattered to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs will start in the 80’s and 90’s before lowering to the low to mid 80’s. Overnight lows will be in the 60’s and 70’s. Humidity will be high to moderate. Some of the thunderstorms could be strong to severe with heavy rains, damaging winds, dangerous lightning, and potentially hail and tornado threats as well. Water conditions will start off borderline to cautious mixed with some good conditions as well for Monday through Wednesday. Winds could gust to 20 knots and seas increase to 4 feet inshore and 5 feet midshore to offshore. Monday and Tuesday could see some fog as well limiting visibility. However, good conditions could occur within timeframes in between the borderline to cautious conditions. Thursday and Friday look good, all except for midshore to offshore. Remember, any thunderstorms could increase winds and seas not reflected in the forecasts. Surf and beach conditions will be good, minus some gustier winds to 20 knots and some higher seas possible on Monday. Thunderstorms could be a concern as well all week. Rip Current Risk will be Moderate to Low. Water temperatures have risen by a few degrees. Most waters are in the 60’s and 70’s with some 80’s in shallower waters. Surf temperatures are in the upper 60’s to low 70’s. UV Index will be Low to Very High at 0-9/15, however most days will be Very High at 8-9/15, so protect yourself from the rays!

A frontal boundary extended southeastward from the Great Lakes to coastal waters off the DELMARVA Coast. The boundary is forecast to slowly move northeastward across the area from Sunday Night through Monday Night. Another frontal boundary is expected to approach from the Northwest on Tuesday and is anticipated to stall and slowly move across or near the region from Wednesday into the weekend.

Saturday and Sunday will continue with chances of showers and thunderstorms for both days. Highs will continue in the low 80’s with overnight lows in the 60’s to low 70’s with moderate to high humidity. Water, surf and beach conditions will be borderline to cautious as conditions deteriorate as the weekend progresses.

Atlantic Tropics may see the development of a system in the Gulf of Mexico that will affect the Gulf States. Forecasts right now point to a track over Texas. The significance for this event is that eventually it will get caught up and brought into the region and state as heavy rain. Over the next 7 days we could see upwards of 2-3 inches of rain.

Have a great week and thanks for reading!

Monday
Sky:   Mostly cloudy to cloudy
Precipitation:  60%-80% chance of rain and thunderstorms during the day, 40%-60% chance of rain and thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:    Low to upper 80’s
Low:   Upper 60’s to low 70’s
UV Index:  8-9/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:27am
Sunset: 8:26pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy (with some areas of partly sunny)
Precipitation:  40%-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day, 0%-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:   Low 80’s to low 90’s
Low:   Upper 60’s to low 70’s with low 60’s across some northern areas
UV Index:  8-9/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:27am
Sunset: 8:27pm
New Moon: 10:06am


Wednesday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance during the day, 40%-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 80’s
Low:   Low to upper 60’s
UV Index:  9/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:27am
Sunset: 8:27pm


Thursday
Sky:   Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  30%-50% chance of rain and thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Upper 70’s to low 80’s
Low:   Upper 60’s with low 60’s across some northern areas
UV Index:  0-4/15 (Low to Moderate)
Sunrise: 5:27am
Sunset: 8:27pm


Friday
Sky:   Partly sunny to partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day, 0%-slight chance at night
Temperatures
High:   Low 80’s
Low:   Mid to upper 60’s with low 60’s across some northern areas
UV Index:  8-9/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:27am
Sunset: 8:28pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Monday & Tuesday Severe Weather Risks







Atlantic Tropical




Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  74°F
Monday
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):   2-4 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  SE 5 knots becoming NW after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less, Patchy fog, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  E 5 knots becoming S in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots becoming NW after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  N 10 knots becoming E in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots becoming W after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday
Wind:   N 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  N 5 knots becoming E
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                         



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  74°F
Monday Morning
Winds: S 12 to 17 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:   2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NE 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: S 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: N 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: SE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: WNW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 12 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SW 3 to 3 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 12 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  66°F
Monday Morning
Winds: SSW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: ENE 4 to 6 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: S 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NNW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: E 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: SE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 12 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NW 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 13 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: NNE 3 to 5 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 13 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  71°F
Monday
Wind:  SSW 7-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  WSW 6-8 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  Variable winds less than knots becoming S 5-8 in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  WNW 7 knots becoming NNW after midnight
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  NNW 8 knots becoming ENE in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  ESE 6-8 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  SSE 6-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  Variable winds 5 knots or less
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  N 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  N 5 knots becoming E
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  70°F
Monday Morning
Winds: SSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WNW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: W 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NNW 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: SE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: WNW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 12 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  70°F-82°F
Monday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1 nm or less increasing to 1-3 nm late morning/afternoon
Surf:  1 foot
Monday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday Night
Wind:  NW 10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday
Wind:  N 5-10 knots becoming E in the afternoon
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday
Winds: SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday Night
Winds:  S 5 knots becoming W after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Friday
Wind:  NW 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Friday Night
Wind:  SE 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  67°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: S 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 4 seconds

Monday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 5 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NNE 3 to 4 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Wednesday Morning
Winds: N 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 11 to 16 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Thursday Morning
Winds: SE 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 10 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: S 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: WNW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 11 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 12 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 





Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!




*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)


Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Severe Weather Possible for Monday
« Reply #1 on: June 15, 2015, 03:27:40 PM »
The Storm Prediction Center issued a Marginal Severe Weather Risk for NJ. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening into the overnight. Storms will be capable of heavy rains, dangerous lightning, damaging winds and tornadoes cannot be ruled out. With any thunderstorm capable of tornadoes, hail is always likely as well, although that risk is not outlined. Areas have already seen some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some inland areas are seeing upper 80's and 90's even with dewpoints in the low 70's, creating a lot of unstable air!

Be aware of changing conditions and have a way of receiving weather alerts.

Be safe!!






Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Severe Weather Possible for Tuesday
« Reply #2 on: June 16, 2015, 01:43:49 PM »
Again, there is a risk for severe weather. Today's risk is a Slight Risk with thunderstorms capable of heavy rains, dangerous lightning, and damaging winds. There are already pop-up showers and thunderstorms occurring across the state, so be aware of changing weather conditions.

Be safe!






 

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