NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: July 6-10, 2015

[Pfishingruven]

Heat and humidity return with showers and thunderstorms and a cautious start to the week on the water. Monday will have chances of showers and thunderstorms with highs in the mid 80’s and overnight lows up into the 70’s with humidity increasing into the overnight as hot and humid air returns with a lifting warm front. By Tuesday, highs will move into the 80’s and 90’s with high humidity and overnight lows in the 60’s and 70’s. These highs will continue through the weekend and chances of showers and thunderstorms are likely all week, except for possibly Friday. Heat indices swill easily push the mid to upper 90’s and even the 100’s this week. Be sure to keep cool, hydrated and check on the young, sick, elderly and pets who will be more susceptible to heat related illnesses Heat Safety. Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered to widely scattered with POP’s (Probability of Precipitation) varying by location. Some storms could be strong to severe and risks will be updated daily. Water conditions on the ocean will start off borderline to cautious for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Monday and Tuesday will see some gustier winds and patchy fog with seas increasing and continuing for Wednesday. By Wednesday conditions will improve and stay good through Friday. Borderline inshore will consist of seas 3-4 and then 2-4 feet, so 2-3 feet would be good, seas pushing 4 feet will make for borderline to cautious conditions for small crafts. Rivers and bays will be good all week, except for the Raritan and Delaware will be very similar to ocean waters. Midshore to offshore waters will be good to start deteriorating with winds and seas through Tuesday and then borderline for seas for the rest of the week. Also remember, winds and seas in and around thunderstorms could be higher than forecast. Surf and beach conditions will be good with winds to 20 knots on Monday and Tuesday along with fog possible. Surf will increase for Tuesday and Wednesday 2-4 feet with the rest of the week around 1-3 feet. Rip Current Risk will be Low to Moderate as winds will be mostly out of the west or south, this week. If you are in or near the water, check the daily updates for rip current risks at the NWS PHI and/or follow signs and flags at guarded beaches. Be aware of changing weather conditions as well, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this week. Water temperatures are warmer by a degree to a few degrees. Waters are in the 70’s and 80’s with surf temperatures in the mid to upper 70’s. Water temperatures could change this week with westerly and southern winds. UV Index will be Very High at 8-10/15.

Weak high pressure that was located directly over the area today will pass off the coast for Sunday Night and Monday. A warm front is forecast to lift northward and through the region from Monday Night into Tuesday Morning. Another frontal boundary is expected to arrive from the northwest on Wednesday. The front will slowly move into or near the region from Wednesday Night into Friday as low pressure moves along the boundary. Weak high pressure may try and build down from the northwest and north for next weekend as the frontal boundary remains nearby to the south.


The heat and humidity continue into the weekend with highs in the 80’s and lows in the 60’s and 70’s. IT looks mostly dry, but I wouldn’t rule out a scattered or isolated shower or thunderstorm. Water, surf and beach conditions look good at this point. There could be some borderline winds and seas on Saturday

Atlantic Tropics are quiet.

Have a great week and thanks for reading!

Monday
Sky:   Partly sunny to mostly cloudy, Patchy fog at night
Precipitation:  0%-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:    Low to mid 80’s
Low:   Upper 60’s to low 70’s
UV Index:  9-10/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:34am
Sunset: 8:28pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy, Patchy fog in the morning
Precipitation:  20%-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Mid 80’s to low 90’s
Low:   Upper 60’s to low 70’s
UV Index:  8-10/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:34am
Sunset: 8:28pm


Wednesday
Sky:  Partly to mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  30%-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Mid 80’s to low 90’s
Low:   Upper 60’s to low 70’s
UV Index:  8-10/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:35am
Sunset: 8:28pm
Last Qtr: 4:25pm


Thursday
Sky:   Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Low to upper 80’s
Low:   Upper 60’s to low 70’s with mid 60’s across some northern areas
UV Index:  9-10/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:36am
Sunset: 8:27pm


Friday
Sky:   Partly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Low to upper 80’s
Low:   Upper 60’s to low 70’s with mid 60’s across some northern areas
UV Index:  9-10/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:36am
Sunset: 8:27pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Monday & Tuesday Severe Weather Risks




Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  75°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
FOG
Wind:  S 5 knots becoming SE with gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less, Patchy fog in the morning, Visibility 1nm or less
Surf (Ocean):   1-3 feet
Monday Night
FOG
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, Patchy fog after midnight
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
FOG
Wind:  S 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less, then 1-2 feet in the afternoon, Patchy fog in the morning, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Tuesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Thursday
Wind:  N 5 knots becoming SE in the evening
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  SE 5 knots becoming light and variable after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday
Wind:   NE 5 knots becoming S in the evening
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  S 5 knots becoming W after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                         



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  75°F
Monday Morning
Winds: WSW 4 to 6 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:   1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: S 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: S 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WSW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: N 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 6 to 9 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NNW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: S 3 to 4 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  72°F
Monday Morning
Winds: SSW 2 to 3 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SE 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSW 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WSW 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: NNW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: NW 2 to 3 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: WNW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3  feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  73°F
Monday
Wind:  Variable winds less than 5 knots becoming SE 6-11 knots in the morning
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  SE 6-11 knots becoming S after midnight
Seas:  1 foot, Patchy Fog
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  SSW 9-11 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Patchy fog
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SSW 10 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  SW 8-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  WSW 7 knots becoming W after midnight
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  NW 5-7 knots becoming variable and less than 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  Variable winds less than 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  NE 5 knots becoming S in the evening
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  S 5 knots becoming W after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  76°F
Monday Morning
Winds: ESE 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WSW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: WNW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: WNW 11 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  74°F-83°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SE 5 knots increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots by late morning
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1 foot
Monday Night
Wind:  S 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Patchy fog, Visibility 1 nm or less
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday
Wind:  SW 10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Patchy fog, Visibility 1 nm or less
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday Night
Wind:  S 10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots becoming W after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday
Winds: W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday Night
Winds: W 5-10 knots becoming SW after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Friday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots becoming N in the afternoon
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Friday Night
Wind:  S 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Chicken Canyon
Water Temperature:  70°F
Monday Morning
Winds: SSE 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SE 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 6 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds: S 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 14 to 18 knots
Seas:  SSW 4 feet at 5 seconds
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  SSW 4 feet at 5 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  SSW 4 feet at 6 seconds
Thursday Morning
Winds: WNW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: WNW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 10 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: NW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

Thunderstorms are likely this evening with some strong to severe. Severe Weather Risks look to be concentrated on southwest portions of the state. Thunderstorms could be capable of heavy rains, dangerous lightning, damaging winds and hail. Be aware of changing weather conditions and have a way of receiving weather alerts!

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has outlined a Slight and Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather for today, Thursday. Storms are likely from now into the night. Some storms could be strong to severe capable of heavy rains, dangerous lightning, damaging winds and tornadoes. The risk of supercells and multicellular squall lines forming bow echoes (damaging straight line winds) and tornadoes is there today. Some areas have a slight risk (Eastern Areas) while other parts have an Enhanced Risk (Western Areas). A Tornado Watch is likely for the Enhanced Risk Area!

Currently, the radar is quiet, but that could change quickly. Keep alert to changing weather conditions and have a way of receiving weather alerts.

Be safe!!

[Pfishingruven]

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for ALL of NJ including coastal waters and the Delaware Bay and Delaware River until 11 PM. This watch also includes Easter PA, Northern DE and Northeastern MD.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #398