NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: July 13-17, 2015

[Pfishingruven]

A very unsettled weak for weather and water conditions! Showers and thunderstorms will be possible all week except for Friday. Scattered to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Monday, Wednesday and Thursday. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, although, overall it looks like typical summer thunderstorms for midafternoon to evening hours. Tuesday will have the greatest chances of rain and thunderstorms and look to be more organized widely scattered to widespread chances throughout the entire day. Thursday will have clearing skies with the greatest chances for any showers or thunderstorms to the south, clearing out for the overnight statewide. Friday will be dry as some weak high pressure briefly controls the area. However, this will be short lived and give way to further disturbances into the weekend. Humidity will be moderate to high at times, however, nothing out of the ordinary this week. Water conditions are all over the place this week. Rivers and bays look mostly good this week with thunderstorms possible limiting visibility and bringing in the gusty winds and kicking up seas. Delaware Bay could see seas to 3 feet most of the week, as well. Inshore ocean waters will be good for Monday and then begin the borderline to cautious streak for Tuesday through Friday and possibly into the weekend. Winds may be gusty on Tuesday to 20 knots, however seas increasing by later Tuesday and continuing through Friday will be the main concern. Inshore could see seas to 6 feet. Midshore to offshore waters will be cautious to even hazardous at times with seas to 10 feet at times. Moving fronts, coupled with the low pressure system creating a long period swell really makes a mess of the forecast this week. Seas will increase, however it will not be reflected in wave period, as that will shorten. So, seas will increase to 6 feet at 5-6 seconds on average this week. Surf and beach conditions will be good for Monday and Tuesday becoming ok to cautious for the remainder of the week. Surf will be normal around 1-3 feet with a Low Risk of Rip Currents for Monday and Tuesday. Late Tuesday and by Wednesday surf will become rougher and higher around 2-4 feet and then 3-5+ feet with a Moderate to High Risk of Rip Currents. Anyone venturing into the water needs to check conditions daily and follow lifeguard instructions. Never swim at unguarded beaches! Surf fishing conditions will not be terribly affected, except for the winds on Tuesday to 20 knots and then rougher conditions later in the week that will affect bait and weights. Fishing will still be good, however going into the water at all will require caution! Water temperatures have increased by a degree to a few degrees. Waters are in the 70’s to upper 80’s in shallower locations with inshore waters in the mid to upper 70’s, midshore to offshore waters in the low 70’s and surf temperatures in the low to mid 70’s. UV Index will be Moderate to Very High at 4-9/15.

High pressure weaken and dissipate through Sunday Night, losing its influence over the area. A warm front is forecast to lift into the area on Monday Night into Tuesday. The front may stall across the area while an area of low pressure forms along the boundary and slows its movement. A cold front is forecast to drop across the area on Wednesday and combine with the stationary front before pushing to the south on Thursday. High pressure should briefly return for Friday before another frontal boundary approaches for the weekend.

The weekend will usher in more chances of showers and thunderstorms with continuing low to mid 80’s for highs and overnight lows in the 60’s and 70’s. Water, surf and beach conditions look borderline to cautious right now for both winds and seas.

Atlantic Tropics are mostly quiet. An area of low pressure off of North Carolina is being watched right now, however it looks to track out to sea either way. This low pressure, regardless of development, will affect the area mid to late week with a long period swell, combined with already forecast high seas. Anyone interested in the Pacific Tropics, there are systems stacked almost on top of each other. It has been an active season, as Pacific sea surface temperatures have peaked and an El Nino Pattern really takes hold!

Have a great week and thanks for reading!

Monday
Sky:   Mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance during the day, 20%-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:    Mid to upper 80’s inland, upper 70’s to low 80’s at the shore/on the water
Low:   Mid 60’s to low 70’s
UV Index:  7-9/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 5:38am
Sunset: 8:26pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  50%-70% chance of showers and thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Low to upper 80’s
Low:   Mid 60’s to low 70’s
UV Index:  7-9/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 5:39am
Sunset: 8:25pm


Wednesday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  40%-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day, 0%-40% chance of showers at night
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 80’s
Low:   Mid 60’s to mid 70’s
UV Index:  7-9/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 5:40am
Sunset: 8:25pm
New Moon: 9:26pm


Thursday
Sky:   Partly to mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-30% chance of showers during the day for mainly southern areas, 0%-slight chance at night
Temperatures
High:   upper 70’s to low 80’s
Low:   Upper 60’s to low 70’s with low 60’s across northern areas
UV Index:  4-8/15 (Moderate-Very High)
Sunrise: 5:41am
Sunset: 8:24pm


Friday
Sky:   Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 80’s
Low:   Mid 60’s to low 70’s
UV Index:  7-9/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 5:41am
Sunset: 8:24pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Monday & Tuesday Severe Weather Risks




Atlantic Tropics




Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  75°F
Monday
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):   1-3 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots becoming E after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  NE 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Thursday
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots becoming E
Seas:  1 foot or less, then 1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Friday
Wind:   NE 5-10 knots becoming S
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, then 2 feet around midnight
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                         



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  75°F
Monday Morning
Winds: SW 2 to 3 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:   1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SE 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: ESE 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SE 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: ESE 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NE 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  74°F
Monday Morning
Winds: E 1 to 2 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: ESE 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SE 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: ESE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  ENE 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: ENE 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  ENE 5 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  E 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  3-5  feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  76°F
Monday
Wind:  Variable winds less than 5 knots becoming SE 5-8 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  SSE 5-7 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  SE 6-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  S 5-9 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  Variable winds 5 knots or less
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  Variable winds 5 knots or less becoming NNE 5-7 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  NE 12-14 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  ENE 5-8 knots becoming variable and less than 5 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  NE 5-10 knots becoming S
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  S 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, then 2 feet around midnight
Surf:  0-1 feet, then 1 foot

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  78°F
Monday Morning
Winds: ENE 5 to 6 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 6 to 9 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: ESE 4 to 6 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: S 4 to 6 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  ENE 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NE 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  E 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: E 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  78°F-86°F
Monday
Wind:  NE 5 knots becoming SE in the afternoon
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  W 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday Night
Wind:  N 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday
Winds: NE 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday Night
Winds: NE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Friday
Wind:  E 5 knots becoming S in the afternoon
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Friday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Chicken Canyon
Water Temperature:  74°F
Monday Morning
Winds: ESE 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Monday Afternoon
Winds: E 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SE 5 to 6 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SE 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 8 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: S 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  S 5 feet at 8 seconds
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 17 to 24 knots
Seas:  S 5 feet at 8 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NE 20 to 26 knots
Seas:  ENE 7 feet at 6 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: NE 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  ESE 5 feet at 7 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 6 to 9 knots
Seas:  SSE 5 feet at 8 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)




NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Hotrod]

It's Tuna time.. now just need the weather.. UGH

[Pfishingruven]

Yeah, weird summer water conditions!!

[Pfishingruven]

Well, the low pressure system off of the North Carolina Coast with only a 20% chance of development and in conditions not conducive to developing, has developed anyway! Tropical Storm Claudette is a solid tropical storm with 50 mph winds and a central pressure of 1004 mb. This storm will continue to track to the northeast, well off of the coast and out to sea. This system will be north of the area by Tuesday Morning, already. There will be little effects from this system, however exiting low pressure systems may merge, or at least waves may merge, with this system and it will indirectly contribute to the poor water conditions this week. The main cause though, is going to be the unsettled weather systems exiting to the ocean. Several waves of low pressure are forecast to move out to sea and over the coastal regions making a mess of the waters. The forecasts are still on track with Thursday being the worst and Tuesday and Wednesday leading up to it and Friday and Saturday being on the tail end. Thursday is actually looking worse inshore with some gusty winds as well and seas 4-8 feet, which would prompt Small Craft Advisories at minimum. However, if you are looking to get out, don't just assume the week is a bust. Check local forecasts closer to the day(s), as conditions and weather can change quickly.

 

[Pfishingruven]

In addition to thunderstorms that moved through the state around noon time, some more storms are firing to the west and could become strong to severe. Storms could be capable of heavy rains again causing flooding conditions, dangerous lightning, damaging winds and hail. Any supercell thunderstorms are also capable of producing tornadoes, however that risk is not even outlined for the state today. Be aware of changing conditions!!

Here is an explanation of the Storm Prediction Center's Risk Levels