Author Topic: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekend Edition: July 18-19, 2015  (Read 2851 times)

Offline Pfishingruven

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Another unsettled weekend, but not a washout and mostly good water conditions. Yet again, another weekend with mostly good conditions, but chances of showers and thunderstorms are possible both days. Saturday will be cloudier and have greater chances of showers and thunderstorms all day, while Sunday will have chances of showers and possibly thunderstorms in the morning and afternoon before chances decrease and conditions clear more for Sunday Night. Both days, chances look to be scattered to widely scattered as some hot and humid air makes its way into the region. Upper 80’s and even mid 90’s, high humidity and heat indices pushing the upper 90’s to 100’s will be possible. Highs at the shore will be a few degrees cooler, but not by much and humidity high as well. Overnight lows will only be in the mid 60’s for northern areas with low to mid 70’s everywhere else, as dew points push into the upper 60’s and 70’s. A very muggy/sticky weekend with not much relief in the way of wind. Water conditions will be mixed and will really vary by time and location. Overall, borderline to cautious conditions are possible, but likely leaning more towards borderline to good. Saturday could see some gusty winds to 20 knots, however higher seas will be the main concern, still only pushing 4 feet on average. Of course, 4 feet at 6-8 seconds would not be ideal on the ocean, however rivers and bays will not see nearly that high and even the Delaware will only be pushing 3 feet. However, even midshore to offshore, I am only seeing 3 feet with 4 feet possible, so while the weekend could be a huge bust, I do not think it will be and certainly not for larger vessels. Surf and beach conditions will be good with a Moderate to Low Risk of Rip Currents this weekend. Surf will be slowly improving and averaging 2-4 feet with 2-3 feet very likely. Water temperatures have cooled by a few degrees as cooler overnight temperatures have taken hold the last couple of nights. However, they will rebound and increase over the next week or so. Midshore to offshore waters are seeing some warmer temperatures as well, as waters from the Gulf Stream move closer to shore. UV Index will be Moderate to Very High at 4-10/15.

High pressure will slowly move offshore on Thursday Night into Friday. Low pressure will then move through the St Lawrence Valley Friday Night into Saturday, pulling a warm front north of the area on Friday Night. A surface trough should develop across the Mid Atlantic on Saturday as high pressure moves across the southeast the rest of the weekend. A cold front should then move through the area on Monday Night, followed by high pressure for midweek.

Next week the heat and humidity will continue! Monday will have chances of showers and thunderstorms, but the rest of the week looks dry as high pressure dominates and pumps hot and humid air in from the south. Highs will be in the upper 80’s and 90’s inland with low to mid 80’s at the shore. Overnight lows will be in the 60’s and 70’s. Water, surf and beach conditions look mostly good all week right now. Some borderline conditions are possible on Monday and Wednesday, especially for midshore to offshore locations.

Invest 93L is in the Eastern Atlantic with a low chance of development. It is a long ways off right now, too. Right now it is just a broad area of low pressure that is showing some increased thunderstorm and cloud activity. This will be something to watch in the future.

Have a great weekend and thanks for reading!

Saturday
Sky:  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  30%-50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms
Temperatures
High:     Mid 80’s to low 90’s inland, low to mid 80’s at the shore/on the water
Low:     Low to mid 70’s with mid 60’s across northern areas
UV Index:  4-9/15 (Moderate-Very High)
Sunrise: 5:42am
Sunset: 8:23pm


Sunday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon, 0%-slight chance the rest of the day/night
Temperatures
High:     Low to Mid 90’s inland, mid 80’s at the shore/on the water
Low:     Low to mid 70’s
UV Index:  9-10/15 (Very High)
Sunrise: 5:43am
Sunset: 8:22pm


Friday Night Surface Analysis



Saturday Surface Analysis



Sunday Surface Analysis



Friday – Monday Precipitation Total



Saturday Severe Weather Risks



Atlantic Tropics







Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts
Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  75°F
Saturday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):   2-4 feet
Sunday
Wind:  W 5 knots becoming S in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Sunday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides

Sandy Hook Tides




Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  75°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: SSW 11 to 14 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: S 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet

Sunday Morning
Winds: WSW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: S 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  71°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: SSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-3 feet
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSW 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-3 feet

Sunday Morning
Winds: W 6 to 9 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-3 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-3 feet


Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay at Island Beach State Park
Water Temperature:  69°F
Saturday
Wind:  SSW 8-12 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  SSW 6-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Sunday
Wind:  Variable winds less than 5 knots becoming S 6 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Sunday Night
Wind:  SSW 8 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides
   
Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  75°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: SSW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-3 feet
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: S 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-3 feet

Sunday Morning
Winds: WSW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-3 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: S 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-3 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides

Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  72°F-80°F
Saturday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday
Wind:  SW 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Sunday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware Bay Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  72°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: SSW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Sunday Morning
Winds: WSW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SSW 3 feet at 5 seconds
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: SW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 6 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)




Ocean Currents

Surface




20 Meters (≈65 feet)









Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!



*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)


Offline Salty Dog

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Thanks Matt . slt


Offline Hunter 2

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  • 36' Topaz Express "Hallie Loren"
Looking nice.  Thanks Matt t^
Eddie "Hunter 2"
36' Topaz "Hallie Loren"    Charter boat sailing from Wagners Marina, Keyport NJ


 Life is short, Fish Hard.

Offline Reel McCoy

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 t^
22' Grady-White Reel McCoy II


Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Thunderstorms & Severe Weather Possible Sunday
« Reply #4 on: July 19, 2015, 03:01:46 PM »
Well, the heat and humidity are here in full force today...and more the humidity than the excessive temperatures. This combination is making heat advisories and warnings, as well as unstable air coupled with a moving boundary this afternoon into the overnight. There is a possibility of strong to severe storms later this afternoon into the overnight. While severe weather looks to be confined to Northern Areas storms statewide could be capable of heavy rains, dangerous lightning, damaging winds, and hail.

Be aware of changing weather conditions, keep an eye on the radar and have a way of receiving weather alerts!





 

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