Coastal Storms Monday-Wednesday

[Pfishingruven]

I guess it is time to get this information out, even though it is very preliminary and there is very little certainty. There is the potential for 2 coastal storms. One on late Sunday Night into Monday and then another on Monday Night.

The first system looks to be the strongest, but looks to stay offshore bringing minimal effects to the area. This is actually being modeled as a large and powerful storm. The models have trended slightly east over the last couple of days, but not drastically. This system has been in the models for several days, however it was well offshore with no effects at all. Since Friday, the models have moved east some, but in the last 24 hours, have stayed mostly consistent with a storm glancing the coast. If the track, which is always uncertain, moves west, it could impact the area. Depending on how far west it moves will determine how much effects the area could receive. Precipitation could be rain or snow, coastal effects would be a problem, as well. Tides models are already indicating some minor coastal flooding, with 1-2 feet above HAT. Gusty winds, high seas, high surf, and beach erosion are all possible as well. Let's hope this stays east and out to sea because there is a lot of damage potential with this storm.

The next system comes Monday Night and develops just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. This system looks more like a possible snow maker, than anything else. Of course, depending how much strengthening and developing it does, would depend on any other coastal effects. There is a lot of uncertainty with this system as well. However, the area is in a 30%-60% chance of more than 4 inches of snow.

Although, these forecasts are very uncertain, these two systems will be one on top of the other and could become a long term snow event of more than 24 hours. Here is a briefing from NWS Philadelphia. Also below are models (not forecasts) of the potential storms and snowfall totals, as they stand this afternoon. These models update every 6 hours, which undoubtedly change every 6 hours as well. I will be watching the models, forecasts and NWS Discussions closely, monitoring any changes. Again, the first system is worrisome, especially for coastal effects and flooding, if the track changes to the west and/or north at all. The second system looks like more of a minimal to moderate snow event, at worst. I will have an update sometime tomorrow before the full week outlook comes out. Hopefully, there will be some more clarity and definitive forecasts by then?

NWS PHI Briefing #1 Feb 8-9 Coastal Storms

[Salty Dog]

Thank you for all that you do .

[Pfishingruven]

OK, it is amazing what 12-24 hours can do to forecasts. While there is always uncertainty and still some uncertainty with these systems, there is more agreement and confidence in the forecasts this afternoon. This week is very busy with snow chances through Wednesday and then very cold air for Thursday and Friday. Let's talk about the Coastal/Winter Storm possibilities right now. The rest will be in the full outlook to follow.

The first coastal storm, which was by far the biggest and strongest storm, should stay well to the east, only barely glancing the coast. This is the better of the options; farther to the east means less effects and more to the west would bring greater effects. Right now, the system will stay far enough to the east to bring some snow showers and accumulations of less than an inch to 2 inches of snow. Coastal flooding is still a concern with Coastal Flood Advisories in affect for all coastal counties from Middlesex County south along the Raritan, continuing south along the ocean, then up the Delaware River extending to Salem County. Coastal Flood Watches have also been issued for these areas, with the potential of Coastal Flood Warnings. Despite being well offshore, there will still be minor to moderate coastal flooding through Wednesday. Gusty winds will be likely, especially along the coast and for marine waters with winds to 30+ knots, high seas to to 10 feet inshore and 15+ feet midshore to offshore, high surf to 10 feet, and more beach erosion. If this system changes track by 50-100 miles west, this forecast will be much different, increased snow, increased flooding, higher winds, seas, and surf. While, this scenario is unlikely at this point, much stranger things have happened. These coastal storms are tricky and do a thing of their own. Being out over the water where there are very few locations to get observations, a slight change in track cannot always be picked up. So, knowing the full potential and worst case scenario is important. More snow is one thing, but increased coastal flooding is a completely different hazard. However, as it stands right now, minor to moderate flooding (see tide forecasts below) with some snow showers, gusty winds, high seas...for this system from late Sunday Night/early Monday Morning through Monday Day. Light snow will be likely, on and off, throughout the day on Monday, as the back side of the storm moves northeast. Flooding is possible with the early Monday Morning High Tide and continue through Tuesday Morning's High Tide. While this system will remain mostly to the west of the state, areas to the north, NYC and Long Island, could get some heavier precipitation are more coastal effects.

The second system has less agreement and will possibly change over the next 12-24 hours. This will be another coastal low, developing more along the coast of the Mid-Atlantic, just off of the NJ Coast on Monday Night. The bulk of the effects from this system will be snow starting Monday Night and taper off Tuesday Night into Wednesday. Temperatures will be above freezing most of Tuesday, so areas could see rain or a wintry mix changing over to snow after dark and surface temperatures may not cool quickly enough for accumulation to occur. So, this could be a big wintry mess into Tuesday Night before much accumulation occurs. Right now the state is looking at a less than an inch to 2-4 inches. Coastal effects at this time look to be minimal, although if track or intensity changes, so will these forecasts.

Behind these systems will be high pressure, Arctic High Pressure with very cold air. By Thursday highs will not make it above freezing with lows in the single digits and teens.

Overall, the forecasts do not anticipate any large amounts of snow or major coastal effects. The entire events look to bring 4 inches of snow maximum to the area, at this point. However, both of these systems have the potential for being major winter storms. I will continue to monitor these systems and the forecasts. Just keep it in the back of your mind that the first system only needs to change its track to become a serious issue and the second system would only need to change track and intensity.

NWS PHI Briefing #2 Coastal Storms/Snow Monday-Wednesday

Advisories, Watches, & Warnings

Coastal Flood Advisory
Atlantic, Burlington, Cape May, Cumberland, Monmouth, Middlesex, Ocean, & Salem

Coastal Flood Watch
Atlantic, Burlington, Cape May, Cumberland, Monmouth, Middlesex, & Ocean

Storm Track




Forecast Snowfall Totals



Max Snowfall Totals





Tide Forecasts/Flooding

Sandy Hook (1.48 feet above HAT Max Tuesday 7-8 AM)


Atlantic City (1.54 feet above HAT Max Tuesday 7-8 AM)


Cape May (1.49 feet above HAT Max Tuesday 7-8 AM)


Models System #1(Not Forecasts)




Models System #2(Not Forecasts)

[Pfishingruven]

Here is just a quick update and videos of the first coastal storm off of the Carolinas. The system is rapidly strengthening and going through a process of bombogenesis (a pressure drop of 24 or more millibars in 24 hours). Central pressure was 1003mb 4 hours ago and is now 994mb. Still only a glancing blow, at this point, but could see 1-2 inches of snow by morning.

Video #1

Video #2

Video #4

[Pfishingruven]

Here's an early morning update. Again, another 12-18 hours and some amazing new information looks to be more certain.

The first system is just southwest of the coast and will stay offshore and continue moving to the northeast. Precipitation/snow is just starting to come onshore and will continue through the afternoon hours. The snowfall spread is less than an inch to 3 inches or so. It will still make for a messy morning commute. In addition to snow, winds have already picked up, tides will be running above normal causing coastal flooding (luckily we are on a New Moon tide with below average tide levels), and beach erosion. These effects will all be minimalized due to the track because the storm definitely strengthened as predicted. High tides will obviously be where to watch for flooding for both ocean front and back bays/rivers.

Multiple Advisories, Watches and Warnings have been issued. Currently, there are Winter Weather Advisories, Coastal Flood Advisories, Small Craft Advisories, and Gale Warnings active. Winter Storm Watches and Coastal Flood Watches will be in effect for Monday Night.

Advisories, Watches & Warnings from NWS PHI/OKX

Advisories, Watches & Warnings for NJ

The second system is looking more clear. There will actually be two lows. One over the Great Lakes and one that exits over the DELMARVA and redevelops in the Atlantic moving northeast. These two systems will bring a mixed wintry precipitation, changing over to snow starting in the evening hours of Monday and lasting through Tuesday. Areas could see upwards of 4 inches of snow from this system(s). Right now, snowfall totals for NJ are cumulative through Wednesday, however snowfall totals for NE NJ/NWS NYC are only for the 1st system. Coastal flooding is forecast to be the greatest for this second system with high tides on Tuesday Morning. While this coastal storm is supposed to be much weaker, don't discount the potential to strengthen more than forecast, as the track will already be in a position to really affect the coast.

Just when you thought we've had enough, the week is not done yet. Wednesday could see snow showers with minor accumulations, then the cold front will pass through, followed by Arctic High Pressure. Snow is also possible Friday Night, as a clipper system moves to the north of the area. Some models bring snow to the area, other do not. It is too early to tell, but will be worth watching!

Of course, water conditions will continue to be hazardous to cautious at best! Surf and beach conditions will be no better for the majority of the week. Not a total washout, but not looking promising either!

So, while the first system isn't even here yet, it will be out of here by late afternoon and will be a minimal event, thankfully. The next system comes in for the later evening hours and will bring more accumulating snow and some coastal effects. We really dodged a potentially dangerous system, which is right out at sea, and will affect Long Island and the northeast. Boston area will see another blizzard from this system.

Be safe! Updates to follow with any major changes...mainly for the second system tonight. Any questions, please contact me.

Current Conditions



Storm Track



Snowfall Forecasts



Max Snowfall

[Pfishingruven]

Coastal Flood Warnings are in effect Atlantic County, Ocean County, Monmouth County, and Middlesex County. Flood Advisories and along the Delaware. Many areas are seeing Moderate Coastal Flooding and still rising from Atlantic City north, including Sandy Hook and into the Raritan. Areas south of Atlantic City are seeing minor flooding at this point.

Coastal Flood Warnings

Be safe!

[Pfishingruven]

So, the first storm is passed the area. The snowfall forecasts were a bust and the models had a good grasp on it...the humans should have listened. However, I'll take the bust on almost no accumulation and basically limited to Eastern NJ, and then up into NY and Long Island. The system went farther east before it went north and stayed well offshore. Despite being well offshore, there was minor to moderate coastal flooding, gusty winds, and moderate beach erosion (much of the replenishment has been washed away again). Again, I'll take that busted forecast over more snow, greater flooding, etc...

So, now onto the second system, which is a combination of two lows, one to the north and one to the south. The southern low will redevelop as a coastal storm and quickly intensify, much like the last storm. This system will not be as large, nor as strong. Snowfall forecasts will range from 1 inch to 8 inches, starting later this evening and into the overnight, somewhere around 7 or 8 PM, as a rough guestimate, and will last through Tuesday. In addition to snow, minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible with tonight's high tide and tomorrow morning's high tide. Gusty winds, high seas and surf and additional beach erosion is also possible. Winter Storm Warnings, Winter Weather Advisories, Coastal Flood Warning's, Coastal Flood Advisories, Small Craft Advisories, and Gale Warnings have all been posted for various locations across the state. All Advisories, Watches, and Warnings can be viewed on the web at NWS PHI & NYC Advisories, Watches & Warnings

This will be the last update to the forecast. From here any updates will be nowcast and monitoring the storm. Be safe!

Storm Tracks



Snowfall Forecasts

[fluke - u]

  ...Thanks Matt  ....

[Pfishingruven]

Latest Briefing from NWS PHI

NWS PHI Briefing #3 Snow/Coastal Storms

[BigAl13]

minor flooding was achieved at the am high, will keep you updated on the pm

[Pfishingruven]

minor flooding was achieved at the am high, will keep you updated on the pm

Thanks PM is not forecast to be as bad, but the am should be the same or a little worse!

[BigAl13]

just got an update from the wife water is up to my driveway

[Pfishingruven]

just got an update from the wife water is up to my driveway

Tides look to be cresting, so it should be at the highest for the night!

[Pfishingruven]

Well, throw the clarity and certainty for this storm out the window. I expect an update on snowfall totals. Snow seems to have shifted northeast. Southern areas could see only rain changing over to a wintry mix and low accumulations, while central and northern areas could see an increase in snowfall totals. Coastal flooding forecasts still look good and will be a moderate to bordering major flood event. I will update the official forecasts, if they are changed before I head off for the night. My guess is it will not be updated until 3 or 4 AM. If not, as soon as I get up in the morning. However, I am expecting the change. Of course, this is a coastal storm that really hasn't gotten going yet. So, don't be surprised if the snowfall forecasts bust for a good portion of the state and increases or changes for the rest. Still, be prepared for the flooding...it will be the worst effect from this storm!

[fluke - u]

  .. Just a dusting in Elizabeth this morning ...

[Pfishingruven]

.. Just a dusting in Elizabeth this morning ...

Just a dusting that has mostly melted here in Manahawkin. Was raining when I just went out.

[Pfishingruven]

Anyone else done with Winter. I need to be a snowbird ! So, the NWS does not agree with the shift in snow, however, they do agree with the much lower confidence in the amounts of snow. This morning's snowfall forecasts now reflect a minimum and maximum also. The coastal low looks to have developed and stayed farther south and now east. The interaction with the northern tracking low did not take place where it was expected. So, we have a storm that really hasn't gotten going yet beyond some very light, light snow showers last night. Much of the precipitation that moved through the state from south to north last night, snowed itself out. There just wasn't any moisture to support it and temperatures rose above freezing in many areas.

So, snow is still expected today with less than an inch to around 4 inches of snow possible. This will extend through much of today and into tonight. Coastal flooding is still a concern this morning with tides 1-2 feet above HAT bringing minor to moderate coastal flooding. Tides are higher to the south and have lowered some to the north, as the low moves out to the east-northeast. Winter Storm Warnings have been replaced by Winter Weather Advisories and Coastal Flood Warnings are still active. Marine waters have Small Craft Advisories.

Snow showers are possible most of Wednesday and Thursday and then again Friday Night. However, this looks more like a nuisance snow, than anything with accumulations over an inch or two. Cold air still moves in Wednesday Night with Arctic Air moving in for the end of the week with highs only in the teens to 20's and overnight lows into the single digits!

Be safe!

NWS PHI Briefing Tuesday Snow/Flooding

Storm Track



Snowfall Forecast Totals



Snow Maximums



Snow Mimimums

[Pfishingruven]

I think this is the storm that's not going to happen ! There are scattered, heavier snow showers across some portions of the state. Snow will continue through the overnight. Some areas will have heavier snow and more accumulation. The latest NWS updates have shifted the snow more north . Some areas across Southern NJ and along the coast may not see much in the way of accumulation. No complaints from me, since I hate shoveling. However, this forecast and storm has been a real pain ! The biggest change is the track and the coastal low has gone very far east. The flood threat has lessened, but still could pose some minor coastal flooding tonight and tomorrow. Coastal Flood Warnings are still in effect for Monmouth and Middlesex Counties, with Coastal Flood Advisories for all counties south. Winter Weather Advisories are still in effect, essentially statewide.

I thought the last update was many updates ago, so...I guess we will see! Only 39 days until the official start of Spring, but who's counting?

Storm Track



Snowfall Forecast

[Pfishingruven]

Another swing and a miss...like I said earlier, the storm that is not going to happen! Snowfall totals are down to less than an inch to 2 inches statewide. Snow showers possible tomorrow and Thursday. Nothing much more to worry about...

[Hotrod]