NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: Feb 15-19, 2016

[Pfishingruven]

More unsettled weather this week with mostly cautious to hazardous water conditions. Monday and Tuesday will be rain and snow all day. Snow will begin, changing over to sleet, then a mix, then rain. Greatest accumulations will be for northern and western parts of the state with up to 4 inches. Other areas will see less than an inch to an inch at most. Monday Night will bring the possibility of freezing rain across northern and western areas. By Tuesday, almost all areas will see all rain. Rain and snow showers will linger into Wednesday Day before clearing out for Wednesday Night and Thursday. Snow showers will be contained to northern and northwestern parts of the state and temperatures will play a major role. Friday will be dry during the day and rain and snow shower chances will return for Friday Night. Temperatures are going to be a roller coaster ride. Coming off of the coldest air of the season, high temperatures will be in the 30’s to 40’s on Monday, then 40’s to 50’s on Tuesday, 40’s on Wednesday, 30’s on Thursday and 30’s to 40’s on Friday. Overnight lows will be in the 20’s to 40’s with the coldest temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday Nights. Monday Night’s lows will barely reach the forecasts and then will increase into the balmy 50’s on Tuesday. Pretty drastic differences from single and negative digits on the weekend into the mid, maybe even upper 50’s on Tuesday! Water conditions will be mostly cautious to hazardous this week with some good and borderline conditions mixed in. Tuesday looks to be the worst with winds to 40+ knots and seas to 15 feet or so. The end of the week may even see more good than borderline conditions, but by Friday Night winds and seas will return. Small Craft Advisories are likely for at least Tuesday with Gale Warnings likely through Tuesday or Wednesday for offshore waters. Surf conditions will be cautious most of the week with hazardous conditions on Tuesday, and Wednesday with gusty winds to 30+ knots and seas to 12 feet. Beach conditions could still be hazardous from the last two storms and beach erosion. Minor beach erosion is possible on Tuesday with the increased surf. Water temperatures have cooled into the low 30’s to low 40’s. UV Index will be Low to Moderate at 0-3/15.

For updated and detailed information on Monday’s Snow and Ice please visit http://njsaltwaterfisherman.com/forums/index.php?topic=37619.0

High pressure will move offshore Sunday Night and during Monday. Low pressure is forecast to develop over the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee River Valleys on Monday. The low is expected to move northeastward and it should pass over or near the region on Tuesday. A cold front from the northwest should arrive on Wednesday followed by High Pressure for Thursday and Friday. Another cold front is expected to arrive next weekend.

Saturday will have chances of rain and snow showers followed by a dry Sunday, so far. Highs will be in the upper 40’s to 50’s with overnight lows in the 20’s to 30’s…not too bad! Water, surf and beach conditions will be cautious to hazardous as more front moves through bringing windy conditions and elevated seas.

Have a great week and thanks for reading!

Monday~Presidents’ Day
Sky:   Cloudy
Precipitation:  Snow to mix to rain
Temperatures
High:    Upper 30’s to mid 40’s inland and at the shore with low 30’s northern areas
Low:   Mid to upper 30’s inland, low 40’s at the shore, upper 20’s northern areas (temps will rise overnight)
UV Index:  1-3/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:50am
Sunset: 5:31pm
First Qtr: 2:48am


Tuesday
Sky:  Cloudy
Precipitation:  Rain, changing over to mix/snow for northern areas
Temperatures
High:    Upper 40’s to mid 50’s
Low:   Mid 30’s inland, mid to upper 30’s at the shore, low 30’s northern areas
UV Index:  0-2/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 6:49am
Sunset: 5:32pm


Wednesday
Sky:  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  30% chance of rain/snow showers during the day, 0%-slight chance at night
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 40’s
Low:   Mid 20’s inland, upper 20’s at the shore, low 20’s northern areas
UV Index:  1-3/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:48am
Sunset: 5:33pm


Thursday
Sky:  Sunny then mostly clear, Breezy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 30’s
Low:   Low 20’s inland, mid to upper 20’s at the shore, mid teens northern areas
UV Index:  2-3/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:46am
Sunset: 5:34pm


Friday
Sky:  Partly to mostly sunny then mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance during the day, 0%-30% chance of rain/snow showers at night
Temperatures
High:   Upper 30’s to mid 40’s
Low:   Mid 30’s inland, upper 30’s at the shore, upper 20’s northern areas
UV Index:  2-3/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:45am
Sunset: 5:35pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  30°F
Monday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  SE 10 knots becoming S after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm in the evening
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  SE 15-20 knots becoming S in the afternoon with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  3-6 feet
Tuesday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  SW 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots becoming W 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots after midnight
Seas:  2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  4-11 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  5-10 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  W 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  3-7 feet
Thursday
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  3-6 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots becoming N 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet, then 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  3-6 feet
Friday
Wind:  NE 5 knots becoming S in the afternoon, then increasing to 10-15 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm in the evening
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  NE 10-15 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, then 1-2 feet after midnight, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                         



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  40°F
Monday Morning
Winds: S 5 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: S 11 to 14 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSE 22 to 29 knots
Seas:  SSE 7 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SE 24 to 33 knots
Seas:  SSE 9 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  4-11 feet
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SSE 7 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  5-10 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 6 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  3-7 feet
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  SE 5 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NNW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: S 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  43°F
Monday Morning
Winds: S 5 to 10 knots
Seas:  ENE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: S 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 3 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSE 20 to 27 knots
Seas:  SSE 6 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-5 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSE 23 to 31 knots
Seas:  SE 8 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  5-10 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: W 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  SE 6 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  5-10 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: W 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 6 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  3-7 feet
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 17 to 23 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NNW 5 to 6 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: S 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  2-4  feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides
Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  34°F
Monday
Wind:  S 5-8 knots increasing to 10-13 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  ESE 14 knots becoming S in the evening with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SE 13-15 knots becoming S in the afternoon with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  WSW 9-12 knots becoming W 6-9 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  Variable winds less than 5 knots becoming W 7-12 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  WNW 13-15 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NW 16 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  N 13-16 knots decreasing to 9-12 knots after midnight with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  NE 5 knots becoming S in the afternoon, then increasing to 10-15 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  NE 10-15 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  42°F
Monday Morning
Winds: SE 6 to 8 knots
Seas:   E 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSE 19 to 26 knots
Seas:  SSE 7 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  3-6 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSE 25 to 34 knots
Seas:  SE 10 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  5-10 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WNW 2 to 3 knots
Seas:  SE 6 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  4-9 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SE 5 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  3-7 feet
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 19 to 26 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  2-5 feet
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 17 to 23 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  2-5 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NNE 4 to 6 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: S 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  32°F
Monday
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  S 10-15 knots increasing to 15-20 knots late
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  S 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  3-5 feet
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  W 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  3-4 feet
Surf:  2-3 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday
CAUTIOUS
Winds: NW 15-20 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Night
Winds: NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday[/]
Wind:  E 5 knots becoming S 10-15 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Friday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  S 15-20 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:  1-3 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Chicken Canyon
Water Temperature:  39°F-47°F
Monday Morning
Winds: S 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ENE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  ENE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSE 19 to 26 knots
Seas:  S 9 feet at 8 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSE 24 to 33 knots
Seas:  SSE 11 feet at 9 seconds
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SSE 11 feet at 11 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  SSE 9 feet at 11 seconds
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  ESE 7 feet at 10 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  ESE 6 feet at 11 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: NNW 6 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 11 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: S 5 to 6 knots
Seas:  ESE 4 feet at 11 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

This Winter's Weather Pattern is more like that of early Spring! Today there is a wintry mess and tomorrow will be rain, heavy at times, and the possibility of some isolated to scattered thunderstorms mixed in. These Thunderstorms will be capable of heavier rains and dangerous lightning. Damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes are NOT on the menu right now. I can't make this up...