Potential Coastal Storm/Snow Saturday - Monday??

[Pfishingruven]

I have been watching a modeled coastal storm, that has been all the talk in weather the last several days. This storm has consistently appeared in the models, but as usual, is inconsistently changed track, intensity, and accumulating snow over these last days. The setup is basically the same as every other coastal storm this Winter (yes, it is technically still astronomical Winter. However, this could end up being an early Spring/Late Winter storm). A low from the South will exit over the Southeastern US into the Atlantic and move north-northeast. As the low gets into the Atlantic, it will quickly strengthen, becoming a Nor'Easter. The track is very uncertain, as is intensity and these two factors will decidedly bring effects to the state. Right now, timing is even uncertain, however Saturday through Tuesday are in the range with Sunday and Monday looking to be more exact. There is potential for accumulating snow. The models say anywhere from nothing to 6 inches statewide...could be more. Coastal effects and flooding are a greater concern. We are approaching a full moon midweek, so tides will begin to run higher. High winds, high seas, rough surf, higher tides with coastal flooding and beach erosion are all possibilities also. Any snow, will likely be wet and heavy, prompting the possibility of power outages. Again, this is all what could come with any coastal storm/Nor'Easter. As the weekend nears, hopefully, there will be some more definitive forecasts. These coastal lows are always hard to forecast...now add in that it is nearing Spring with less cold air around, warmer grounds and roads, and a higher angle of the sun. This makes forecasting difficult for snow accumulation and busting very high!

Below is a link to the first briefing from NWS PHI (which only states that there is the possibility of a storm) and graphics.

Updates to follow...stay tuned!

NWS PHI Briefing #1 Potential Coastal Storm/Snow

Tracks




Probability of Snow

More than 1 Inch



4 Inches or More



Total Precipitation Through Wednesday

[Hunter 2]

 

[Salty Dog]

Thanks Matt .

[Still Running]

 

[Hotrod]

No Matt.  no more of this Sh!t..

[Pfishingruven]

No Matt.  no more of this Sh!t..

I'm with you...

[Pfishingruven]

Not a lot has changed since yesterday, however there is a snowfall forecast for accumulating snow. A moderate coastal storm/Nor'Easter will affect the area starting Saturday Night and last through Sunday Night/early Monday. This storm will bring accumulating snow, a wintry mix, minor coastal flooding, gusty winds, high seas, high/rough surf, and beach erosion. Right now the track is not very certain and neither is intensity. The time of year needs to be considered for accumulating snow. Any snow that does fall will be wet and heavy. This is going to make a wintry mess for the second half of the weekend, as overnight lows will be below freezing. Coastal flooding will be minor with tides 1-2 feet above Mean Higher High Water (High Tide) and below High Astronomical Tide (HAT) levels.

These forecasts will change every 6 hours for the next 24 hours or so. If the track or intensity change, effects will also change! I will have an update tomorrow after 11 AM!

Be safe!

NWS PHI Briefing #3 Coastal Storm/Snow

Tracks




Snowfall Totals




Max Snowfall

[Pfishingruven]

Sorry for the late update. I guess the NWS is not doing an 11 AM update that I have been waiting for? Overnight, the models did a complete flop with this storm, showing warmer/less snowier solutions with a farther east track and a less intense storm. This, of course, lowered the snow totals across most of the state. The morning models then moderated to less snow, but not the complete bust the night models indicated. The afternoon models have gone slightly colder and a little snowier. Of course, these are just models and actual forecasts take many things into consideration. A late Winter Nor'Easter is always difficult. With warmer air yesterday and warm air returning on Monday or Tuesday, it is hard to commit to sudden cold air, cold enough to snow, pushing on in for just two or three days. These forecasts of freezing temperatures always moderate out to not quite there.

So, we are still getting a storm. Timing is still Saturday Night through Monday. Right now, not as strong , a little to the east, slightly warmer, and less snow. Many areas will have snow, rain, wintry mix, and sleet all possible, and not necessarily in that order. It will still make a mess and any snow will be heavy and wet, likely slush. Any slight changes in track or intensity could drastically change this forecast. Just 50-100 miles one way or another makes this a completely different game! So, know that worst case scenarios are possible and that plowable accumulating snow could still happen. Coastal effects are also still on the menu with minor coastal flooding on Sunday and Monday's high tides. Gusty winds, high seas, high/rough surf, and beach erosion are all possible too.

If there are any changes, I will update them. I believe there will be an new briefing from NWS PHI at 5PM now and that updated information can be obtained from the same link below (they use the same location to host the PDF. They just update the info there).

NWS PHI Briefing Coastal Storm/Snow

Tracks




Snowfall Totals




Max Snowfall

[Pfishingruven]

I should have waited  because they have already updated the forecast, again.

No changes in dialogue from my last update, but even less accumulating snow and a timeline of events on the latest briefing. You can see in the second track graphics, still a good amount of uncertainty in the track!

Be safe!! Any major updates to follow...

NWS PHI Briefing Coastal Storm/Snow

Tracks




Snowfall Totals




Max Snowfall

[Pfishingruven]

Here is a quick update on the Nor'Easter. So far, not much...maybe some rain mixed with sleet or a wintry mix. The bulk of the storm will move in this evening/night and *should* bring up to 4 inches of accumulating snow. This is a couple inches more than yesterday's forecasts. There is not a new briefing. The track came slightly more west and a little colder and stronger. We will have to wait and see...there is a a lot that needs to come together!

Here are the latest graphics

NWS PHI Briefing Coastal Storm/Snow

Tracks




Snowfall Totals




Max Snowfall

[fluke - u]

  .....Love nothing better than shoveling the deck of my boat.....