NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekend Edition: Jun 4-5, 2016

[Pfishingruven]

 
               
Another unsettled weekend with rain and thunderstorm chances both days. Saturday will be mostly cloudy then shower and thunderstorm chances will increase into the night. These will be scattered to widely scattered. By Sunday showers and thunderstorms will be widely scattered to more widespread. Thunderstorms could be strong to severe with heavy rains, dangerous lightning, gusty winds, hail and even a tornado threat! Highs will be in the 70’s and 80’s with overnight lows only in the 60’s. Humidity will be moderate to high. Water conditions will be good on Saturday becoming borderline to cautious on Sunday and by Sunday Night all cautious with gusty winds to 30+ knots and seas to 5 feet inshore. Surf and beach conditions will be good on Saturday and ok to cautious on Sunday. Rip Current Risk will be Low on Saturday and Low to Moderate on Sunday. Water temperatures are steady in the 60’s and 70’s. UV Index will be Low to Very High at 2-10/15.

A weak cold front will arrive in our area during Friday before dissipating. Low pressure is then forecast to track across the eastern Great Lakes into Canada Sunday and strengthen, pulling a cold front across our area late Sunday. A secondary cold front looks to move through late Monday, then high pressure builds in for later Wednesday and Thursday.

Next week looks more settled right now and mostly dry. High temperatures will be in the 70’s and 80’s with overnight lows in the 50’s and 60’s. Water, surf and beach conditions look good through Wednesday, then conditions become borderline to cautious.

Bonnie is alive again in the Atlantic as a Tropical Depression. She will remain out to sea and not pose a risk to the area. There is an area of concern in the GOM being watched for development that may track across Florida during the week.

Have a great weekend and thanks for reading!

Saturday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  20%50% chance of showers and thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:     Low to mid 80’s inland, mid to upper 70’s at the shore
Low:     Low to upper 60’s
UV Index:  3-10/15 (Moderate – Very High)
Sunrise: 5:29am
Sunset: 8:21pm
New Moon: 11:01pm


Sunday
Sky:  Cloudy becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  70% chance of showers and thunderstorms (some severe) during the day, 60%30% chance of showers and thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:     Mid to upper 70’s
Low:     Low to upper 60’s
UV Index:  2-7/15 (Low – High)
Sunrise: 5:28am
Sunset: 8:21pm


Friday Night Surface Analysis



Saturday Surface Analysis



Sunday Surface Analysis



Precipitation Totals



Saturday & Sunday Severe Weather





Atlantic Tropics – TD Bonnie & Area of Invest GOM





Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  64°F
Saturday
Winds: S 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Saturday Night
Winds: S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Sunday
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less, then 1-2 feet in the afternoon
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Sunday Night
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides

Sandy Hook Tides




Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  64°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: WSW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: S 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: SE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: SE 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  61°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: WNW 3 to 4 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: SE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 11 to 16 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay at Island Beach State Park
Water Temperature:  62°F-68°F
Saturdayg7
Wind:  Variable winds less than 5 knots becoming SSE 5-7 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:  S 8 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Sunday
Wind:  S 8-13 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Sunday Night
Wind:  SSW 12 knots becoming WSW after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides
   
Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  66°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: E 2 to 3 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds: S 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  2-5 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  2-5 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides

Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  67°F-70°F
Saturday
Wind:  SE 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Saturday Night
Wind:  SE 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Sunday
Wind:  S 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Sunday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware Bay Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  62°F
Saturday Morning
Winds: NW 3 to 3 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 3 to 4 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Sunday Morning
Winds: SE 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Sunday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSE 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 5 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

Saturday and Sunday will have thunderstorm and severe weather threats. Saturday is more of a generalized chance or threat of thunderstorms with scattered to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. These thunderstorms could cause heavy rains, dangerous lightning, and gusty winds. Most importantly is that many will be outdoors and storms could move in quickly or pop-up! Thunderstorms will also cause winds and seas to be greater than in marine forecasts and could prompt Special Marine Warnings.

Sunday is the most concerning day! Sunday will have a severe threat of thunderstorms, widely scattered to more widespread. These storms will be capable of heavy rains that cause flash flooding, dangerous lightning, damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. Right now, there is a Slight Risk for most of the state with an Enhanced Risk of storms for Southwestern areas and areas south and west of NJ. This could change over the next couple of days!

Again, be aware of changing weather conditions, have a way of receiving weather alerts, "When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors," and "Turn Around, Don't Drown!" Updates as necessary!!

[Hunter 2]

Thanks Matt

[Pfishingruven]

Here is the latest from the NWS Storm Prediction Center for Saturday and Sunday.

Saturday will have chances of scattered or widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be strong and capable of heavy rains, dangerous lightning, and gusty or damaging winds. Saturday's Severe Weather threat is almost completely outside of the state. There is a general risk of thunderstorms and a small part of Southwest NJ around Salem County has a marginal risk for damaging winds.

Sunday is still the most concerning with the greatest risk of severe weather. As of this afternoon's Outlook, all of NJ is now in a Slight or Enhanced Risk. The bulk of NJ is in the Enhanced Risk and Northern NJ is in the Slight Risk. Sunday Afternoon and Evening will bring scattered to organized thunderstorms, with the possibility of some severe storms. These storms will be capable of heavy rains with flash flooding, dangerous lightning, damaging winds, damaging hail, and even tornadoes!!

Be aware of changing weather conditions and have a way of receiving weather alerts. If the only way you receive alerts is via the Emergency Alert System (EAS) or Wireless Emergency Alerts by cell phone (WEA), please contact me for information on back up ways to receive these alerts!

There will be a briefing from NWS Philadelphia later this afternoon. Updates to follow...

Saturday & Sunday Weather Maps & Precipitation





Saturday's Severe Weather Outlook








Sunday's Severe Weather Outlook

[Pfishingruven]

Right on time...they always update right after I post !

Here is the latest Briefing from NWS Philadelphia on the Severe Weather Threat!

NWS Philadelphia Briefing #2 Severe Weather

[Pfishingruven]

Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Burlington, Atlantic, Cape May, and Cumberland Counties. All areas from the Raritan Bay south along the Atlantic Ocean and up the Delaware Bay/River, including all coastal river, intercoastal waterways, and bays could experience minor coastal flooding at or just above High Astronomical Tide levels due to the new moon on Saturday Night's high tides.

Areas prone to coastal flooding or low lying areas could experience minor flooding. Keep this in mind tomorrow afternoon during high tide and tomorrow night, in the event thunderstorms bring heavy rainfalls that will not easily drain and cause flash flooding on top of already coastal flooding!

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
255 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED THIS EVENING...

DEZ002>004-NJZ012>014-020>027-050400-
/O.NEW.KPHI.CF.Y.0017.160604T2200Z-160605T0400Z/
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
255 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT.

* LOCATION...THE COASTAL AREAS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. THE
  COASTAL AREAS OF LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE BACK BAYS.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

* TIMING...THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE WHICH WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
  OCEANFRONT AROUND 8:00 PM AND CLOSER TO 10:30 PM ACROSS LOWER
  DELAWARE BAY. THE HIGH TIDE OCCURS SEVERAL HOURS LATER OVER THE
  BACK BAYS.

* IMPACTS...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING COULD PRODUCE WATER IN ROADWAYS
  WHICH DO NOT NORMALLY HAVE TIDAL FLOODING. IF DOWN AT THE SHORE
  THIS WEEKEND, MAKE SURE YOU CAR IS PARKED AWAY FROM TIDAL
  WATERWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR
COUNTY PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES

&&

$$

PO

[Pfishingruven]

Some scattered showers and thunderstorms have already moved in to Northern NJ. A warm front is draped across the state and has lifted north over the last few hours. A cold front is moving east, through PA bringing rain and what will be thunderstorms and severe weather. Dew points will be key in determining the severe weather. Currently, the southern half of the state has dew points in the upper 60's to lower 70's. Cloud cover is keeping the sun at bay for most locations, which will limit daytime heating for now.

The NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center ‪#‎SPC‬ has put almost all of NJ in an ENhanced Risk with a Slight Risk for Northern NJ. Thunderstorms could become severe and will be capable of heavy rains causing flash flooding, dangeorus lightning, damaging winds, hail, and even tornadoes. Supercells are possible ahead of the main line of storms which will be multicellular linear storms with the main threat of straight line winds. Straight line winds can be just as damaging as a weak tornado, so don't ignore any warnings. Watches are likely later. Stay tuned for updates!

Remember be aware of changing weather conditions. Have multiple ways of receiving weather alerts. Remember a Watch means conditions are favorable. A Warning indicates imminent danger! Follow all Watches and especially Warnings! When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors and stay indoors for 30 minutes after the last thunder is heard. Do not drive through flooded roadways, "Turn Around, Don't Drown!"

[Pfishingruven]

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 2200 hrs for ALL of NJ, including all Marine Zones!

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe weather, including possible tornadoes.

Please be aware of changing weather conditions and have a way of receiving alerts. Storms are forming to the south and west of here and will be moving from the south- southwest to the north-northeast!

NWS SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch #236

[Pfishingruven]

A squall line of storms has formed to the west of NJ and are moving northeast. This line of storms is Severe Warned with winds greater than 58 MPH and/or 1 inch hail. There are also some cells popping up ahead of this line. These cells could rapidly intensify and bring severe weather as well.

Be safe!