Hurricane Information.

[ped579]

I will be posting information here in regards to the hurricanes for this year.  To make it simple I will pick and choose the raw information from the National Hurricane Center.  For the most part it will look like this.  The latest info.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  69.9W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  13 KT

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

If you have any questions feel free to ask.  If I do not know I know where to go for it.

Paul

[Hotrod]

 

[ped579]

If you are new to this hurricane stuff here is a location that will give you some terms that you will be hearing from now till the end of the Hurricane Season.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml

There are many other locations but this is a good site for other information as well.  It would be a good thing to check out the Frequently Asked Questions as well.

Hurricanes are not a thing to play around with especially if it your family depends their life on getting out of harms way.  Here in the Ocean County area it is taken very serious.  If you are in Toms River you might want to contact the Office of Emergency Management especially if you are told to evacuate.

I will try to put things up that will help you figure all this out.

Paul

[Reckless]

 Good info!! Thanks!! 

[SurfJockey]

Great stuff Paul! 

[Art Berkman]

Good Stuff Paul 

[Still Running]

  Thanks

[ped579]

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
800 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 71.6W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST THEREAFTER.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND COULD APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.  

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.

There has not been any changes in the warnings at this time.  The NHC posts new information at 6 hour intervals unless there is a significant change that the public needs to be aware of.

Paul

[ped579]

Here is a discussion from the NHC on Earl.  If there are any questions about it please ask or check the NHC site for further information.  Don't worry about the acronyms just read the info and the summary at the end.  It looks like Earl has shifted a bit to the west which is not good.  We need the sheer to continue and that trough plus the westerlies to do their job for this storm to be pushed out far enough to where we only experience a tropical storm instead of a hurricane.

HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
500 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

THE EYE OF EARL HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A
LITTLE.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 941 MB...WHICH IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM EARLIER.
HOWEVER...THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 116 KT...WHICH WAS
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MISSION...AND SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES FROM
THE SFMR WERE UNDER 100 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO
110 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.

EARL IS MOVING 310-315 DEGREES AT ABOUT 14 KT.  FOR THE NEXT 36 OR
SO...THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC.  AFTER THAT...EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE END OF THE RIDGE AND ENTERS
THE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SMALL
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT COULD HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS
IN TERMS OF IMPACTS.  THE GFDN...NOGAPS...AND UKMET FORECAST THE
CENTER TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND NEW
ENGLAND.  THE OTHER MODELS ARE FARTHER TO THE EAST...KEEPING THE
CENTER OFFSHORE.  THROUGH 48 HR...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...KEEPS THE CENTER OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...AND LIES JUST WEST OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
AFTER 48 HR...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
WEST...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK DOES LIKEWISE TO BE IN THE CENTER
OF THE ENVELOPE.  THIS PART OF THE TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CONUNDRUM.  ON THE FAVORABLE SIDE...THE
HURRICANE IS OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...HAS GOOD
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND HAS A
GOOD CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.  ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE...EARL IS
EXPERIENCING 15-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TONGUE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR
WRAPPED MORE THAN HALFWAY AROUND THE CYCLONE.  SOME SHEAR IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR...AND NONE OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR MUCH STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME.  BASED ON
THIS...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH FOR 36 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS EARL ENCOUNTERS
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR.  EARL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HR. 

HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS MORNING.

Paul

[ped579]

Here is the new tracking information.  Remember it still is a long way off and a lot can still happen.  I will try to post any changes as I get them.

[Still Running]

Paul,
Is the edge of the white a possible path or the edge of the weather?
Thanks

[ped579]

The path of the hurricane is down the middle of the envelope.  The edges are the path of correction.  I just saw the big picture and it looks like a race to the coast.  There is a front coming from the west and could push Earl more to the East.

[ped579]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
200 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

...LARGE HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES RELENTLESSLY TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST...POSES A THREAT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 72.7W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM E OF ABACO ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM NEW JERSEY TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. HOWEVER...PRELIMINARY DATA FROM
AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS BEGINNING TO
STRENGTHEN AND EARL COULD AGAIN BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
LATER TODAY.

EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY LATE THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL SHOULD AFFECT THE BAHAMAS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY.  THESE SWELLS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecvs.html


If you notice the projection has a slight hitch to it as far as NJ goes.  If the front continues to come across the country it should move Earl out to sea even more than projected...We will have to wait and see.

Paul

[ped579]

Pod Cast from Today...I will try to post these as well.  It is something new from th4e NHC so it could be spotty.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/audio/201009011807.mp3

Paul

[PeggyLee]

Thanks Paul. Important info.We are keeping a close eye..

[ped579]

I will try to keep post as much info as I can of the latest forecasts and discussions.  Some of the new stuff from the NHC might be spotty but at least everyone should be kept aware of what is going on.

[ped579]

Here is the 1700hr report.  I cleaned it up a bit to shorten it a bit.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
500 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

...DANGEROUS AND LARGE HURRICANE EARL POSES A THREAT TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD
THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 73.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING
DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH
OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO
WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND
SOUND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  EARL IS AGAIN A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

EARL IS STILL A LARGE HURRICANE AND GROWING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO WAS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY LATE THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
NEW JERSEY BY EARLY FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA. ELSEWHERE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY.  THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.

POD CAST FOR 5:00 PM 1700 hrs
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/audio/201009012108.mp3

Here is a pretty good view of what is happening...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-avn.html

[Capt. Carl]

nice job Paul...u got your job back! lol

[ped579]

Thanks CC...The job is hell but the pay is good...lol

[ped579]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
800 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

...LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE EARL THREATENING THE U.S.
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 73.5W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.  THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED
THEREAFTER.

EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY LATE THURSDAY.   TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
NEW JERSEY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY.  ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY.  THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

Latest POD CAST.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/audio/201009020104.mp3

Latest East Coast imagery.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-avn.html

Remember to click on the map below to enlarge.