Published: Thursday, August 25, 2011, 10:52 AM
Updated: Thursday, August 25, 2011, 12:53 PM
By Stephen Stirling/The Star-Ledger
Updated: As Hurricane Irene nears, Gov. Christie declares a state of emergency to mobilize National Guard
State and National Weather Service officials are urging New Jersey residents to prepare for Hurricane Irene now, as several factors could align to make the impacts of the approaching cyclone potentially disastrous for New Jersey.
It’s important to note we are still days away from Irene, which was packing 115 mile per hour winds this morning as it swirled through the Bahamas, making its closest approach to the state and forecasts could still change. But as of this morning, forecasts have Irene tracking within miles of the New Jersey coast as a hurricane Sunday (see interactive map below), and the impacts of the storm statewide could be severe.
“Everyone should be preparing for this storm as now is the time. Have a plan in place,” wrote Dean Iovino and Michael Gorse, meteorologists at the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, in their morning forecast discussion. “Everything remains on the table with this hurricane, which includes widespread damaging winds, torrential rain, coastal flooding, dangerous rip currents/waves and beach erosion.”
Current forecast guidance suggests Hurricane Irene will turn northward today and tomorrow as it approaches the North Carolina coast. The National Hurricane Center said it appears a trough will form along the east coast, providing an alleyway for the cyclone to travel northward rather than curl out to sea.
Hurricane Watches were issued along the North Carolina coast this morning, and tropical storm watches extend further south along South Carolina and Georgia. At this time, it appears the greatest impacts from Irene would be felt in New Jersey overnight Saturday through about midday Sunday, according to NWS Mount Holly.
A number of other factors play into Irene’s impact on New Jersey. According to New Jersey state climatologist at Rutgers University David Robinson, New Jersey’s statewide average for rainfall this month is already more than double what it typically is, while some towns in the state appear to have already tripled their average August rainfall.
As a result, the soil is already fairly saturated, leaving river levels above average and making it easier for trees to be uprooted by high winds. In southern New Jersey, among the hardest hit by August rains, several dams failed during a storm two weeks ago, prompting inspections of dozens of others in the region.
To make matters worse, a storm system is expected to bring heavy rains, and perhaps flash flooding, to parts of the state today – which would only exacerbate existing conditions ahead of Irene.
Along the coast, the storm is set to coincide with a new moon, meaning that high tides will already be above normal levels. This could make any coastal flooding impacts of Irene more severe.
State officials have been monitoring the storm and are urging New Jersey residents to prepare for the worst now.
“We’re telling people, ‘ listen, take today and tomorrow to prepare. Don’t wait.’ Have a full tank of gas, plenty of food in the house, blankets and clothes in your car. Make sure you’re prepared just in case,” said state police Sgt. Brian Polite, noting evacuation plans, should they be necessary are in place and ready to be activated. “Right now, we’re watching, waiting and getting ready.”
