Author Topic: Nor' Easter Storm 10/29/2011(was Weaker System Moving into the Area!)  (Read 20402 times)

Offline Pfishingruven

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I waited to make mention of this as the models have been all over the place the last 7 days.  Today at 0800 model runs were the first time any of them agreed with one another.

There will be generalized rain in the area from today through Saturday.  Some areas are seeing or will see snow tonight and then again on Saturday...this is mostly in Northern NJ and west of Philly, as well as higher altitudes.  Late Friday night and into Saturday a weaker to weak LOW Pressure system will move into the area off of the coast of NJ.  You could call this a Nor' Easter, but a weak one at that.  This will not be anywhere near what we have seen in the past around this time of the year.  It will bring rain, 1-2 inches total, some wintry precipitation to some areas(snow NNJ, flakes or wintry mix elsewhere), gusty winds on land, Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings for the waters, and coastal flooding.  Areas receiving snow tonight and Saturday will be getting a heavy wet snow and should be prepared for power loss and tree limbs falling.

By Sunday, this will all clear out and temperatures will be highs in the 50's and lows in the 30's.  Halloween will be middle 50's and middle to upper 30's after sunset.

Here is a link to NWS Warnings and Watches for NJ.

NWS Warnings, Watches & Advisories

Attached are some models and precipitation totals.

Added Snowfall Total Map for Saturday.

Any changes, I will update you.

 TT^
« Last Edit: October 28, 2011, 02:45:44 PM by Pfishingruven »


Offline Still Running

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Re: Weaker System Moving into the Area!
« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2011, 07:20:15 PM »
Great! Just what I wanted 6-10 for me. rgmn
Fishing Sandy Hook and anywhere I can get on a boat.




My biggest fear is when I die my wife sells all of my fishing tackle for what she thinks I paid for it!
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Offline Offshore Madness

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Re: Weaker System Moving into the Area!
« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2011, 07:37:00 PM »
 nosmly fcp figures
Why does it Matter to you? cause I could careless.........

Offline IrishAyes

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Re: Weaker System Moving into the Area!
« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2011, 08:00:38 PM »
 :P
Captain Joe of the Irish Ayes

May the holes in your net be no larger than the fish in it.  ~Irish Blessing


Offline Kenny

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Re: Weaker System Moving into the Area!
« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2011, 08:07:28 PM »
I'm in the same boat Rick... rgmn

Offline Offshore Madness

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Re: Weaker System Moving into the Area!
« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2011, 08:14:21 PM »
you guys live up northwest jersey?
Why does it Matter to you? cause I could careless.........

Offline Kenny

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Re: Weaker System Moving into the Area!
« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2011, 08:21:57 PM »
Yep....

I'm in Chester and Rick is further north in Jefferson....


Offline Offshore Madness

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Re: Weaker System Moving into the Area!
« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2011, 08:38:33 PM »
Wow thats a haul from where i am..Sucks about the snow but you no its called white gold for a reason!!!
« Last Edit: October 27, 2011, 08:39:26 PM by Offshore Madness »
Why does it Matter to you? cause I could careless.........

Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Weaker System Moving into the Area!
« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2011, 10:31:48 PM »
I am seeing such mixed forecasts for this storm.  NONE of the models can agree on anything and a lot depends on the track.

Some hope for you northwest NJ guys...seeing some numbers closer to 3-6 inches with 10+ locally.  A lot depends on the track and how quickly or slowly it moves through.

Either way, heavy, wet snow in October, which does not sound like fun rgmn.


Offline Scott G.

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Re: Weaker System Moving into the Area!
« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2011, 06:57:54 AM »
 fcp nosmly fcp nosmly fcp
Fishing, with me, has always been an excuse to drink in the daytime.

Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Weaker System Moving into the Area!
« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2011, 09:38:37 AM »
This system has already stalled a bit and the rain/snow system from last night moved quicker than anticipated.  Today was supposed to be cloudy, rainy and colder.  1 out of 3 isn't bad fcp!  So, today should remain sunny, now.  

The slowing system that will become the Nor' Easter won't be moving in until Saturday morning now and will be here through Sunday morning.  There is no change, though, in the amount of time it effects us.  There is a potential change in the track, bringing it closer to the coast.  Closer to the coast would mean higher snowfall amounts and wintry conditions over more of the area.  The coast could also see higher winds, heavier surf, more beach erosion and coastal flooding.

 :-\
« Last Edit: October 28, 2011, 09:56:11 AM by Pfishingruven »

Offline njbob49

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Re: Weaker System Moving into the Area!
« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2011, 11:04:13 AM »
Thanks for the updates.  slt I have a case of Heineken, a quart of Polish blackberry brandy and 2 big bottles of wine so I am ready. chrz thud cfzd OH, I did buy a loaf of bread and some milk for the fluke I will be cooking tomorrow this morning. BRING IT ON MOTHER NATURE!!!!!! rofla

As long as the weather cooperates for our sea bass trip on the Bingo on Friday 11/4, I will be happy. t^ 

Tight Lines,
Bob G

Offline Offshore Madness

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Re: Weaker System Moving into the Area!
« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2011, 11:11:51 AM »
Thanks for the updates.  slt I have a case of Heineken, a quart of Polish blackberry brandy and 2 big bottles of wine so I am ready. chrz thud cfzd OH, I did buy a loaf of bread and some milk for the fluke I will be cooking tomorrow this morning. BRING IT ON MOTHER NATURE!!!!!! rofla

As long as the weather cooperates for our sea bass trip on the Bingo on Friday 11/4, I will be happy. t^ 

Tight Lines,
Bob G

 >:D TT^ >:D
Why does it Matter to you? cause I could careless.........

Offline Still Running

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Re: Weaker System Moving into the Area!
« Reply #13 on: October 28, 2011, 12:43:29 PM »
Ready
Fishing Sandy Hook and anywhere I can get on a boat.




My biggest fear is when I die my wife sells all of my fishing tackle for what she thinks I paid for it!
Www.HNCTruckParts.com

Offline Andys Delight

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Re: Weaker System Moving into the Area!
« Reply #14 on: October 28, 2011, 12:56:08 PM »
I have had it with the weather!  HAD IT!!!!!!   fcp fcp fcp  rgmn rgmn rgmn
The cure for everything is salt water: sweat, tears, and the sea.


Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Weaker System Moving into the Area!
« Reply #15 on: October 28, 2011, 02:21:43 PM »
Smart move, Rick!

Thanks for the updates.  slt I have a case of Heineken, a quart of Polish blackberry brandy and 2 big bottles of wine so I am ready. chrz thud cfzd OH, I did buy a loaf of bread and some milk for the fluke I will be cooking tomorrow this morning. BRING IT ON MOTHER NATURE!!!!!! rofla

As long as the weather cooperates for our sea bass trip on the Bingo on Friday 11/4, I will be happy. t^ 

Tight Lines,
Bob G

 rofla

Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Nor' Easter Storm 10/29/2011 (Weaker System Moving into the Area!)
« Reply #16 on: October 28, 2011, 02:44:26 PM »
OK...this is hands down going to be a full blown Nor' Easter.  This has been an incredibly hard storm to pin point.  For the Tri State Area we are going to see a strong storm now.  Track is bringing it right along the coast!!  New England, is going to see a strong to powerful storm.  However, it should move out and doesn't look like it is going hang around much more than 24 hours or so.  If it stalls off of our coast, that is an entire different beast!

Anyone in snow predicted areas, make sure you are ready.  Widespread power outages are very likely.  Anyone with a boat still in the water.  I would make sure you check your lines and pumps today.  Gusty winds, 60+ mph are likely.  Some coastal flooding as well.  We might see a little more rain, 2-4 inches and it could be heavy at times.  Of course, heavy surf, beach erosion and slightly higher tides.  I don't see the winds pushing too much water into the back.  As of this moment, the storm won't be around long enough to cause a large surge of water.  Don't be surprised if you hear thunder or "thunder snow" with this system either...it is highly possible.

NWS Watches, Warnings have not really changed.  There are active Winter Storm Warnings and Watches across the Tri State Area as well as Coastal Flood Watches, Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings!

Here is a link to some graphics from Accuweather with their updated forecast.  This Meteorologist is good and reliable.  Unfortunately, the best meteorologist in the world can't compete all the time with mother nature.  This might be one of those events where changes are occurring so rapidly, you just need to keep and eye or ear to the latest weather updates.

I will be out later this evening for a school Halloween Party, but will be back by 9PM or so.  I will keep you updated.  If anyone has any questions, feel free to ask.

Accuweather Nor' Easter Forecast Fri 10/28/2011

 rgmn rgmn rgmn
« Last Edit: October 28, 2011, 02:46:37 PM by Pfishingruven »

Offline Still Running

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Re: Nor' Easter Storm 10/29/2011(was Weaker System Moving into the Area!)
« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2011, 09:32:32 AM »
9:30 am and snow fall just started here. At least I just got the boat covered.
Fishing Sandy Hook and anywhere I can get on a boat.




My biggest fear is when I die my wife sells all of my fishing tackle for what she thinks I paid for it!
Www.HNCTruckParts.com

Offline Offshore Madness

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Re: Nor' Easter Storm 10/29/2011(was Weaker System Moving into the Area!)
« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2011, 09:44:49 AM »
Heavy rain around 6am then up to now a steady rain.Wind is blowin pretty good. Cold. fcp snow forcasted to start around 5pm.
Why does it Matter to you? cause I could careless.........

Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Nor' Easter Storm 10/29/2011(was Weaker System Moving into the Area!)
« Reply #19 on: October 29, 2011, 10:26:36 AM »
Looks like the track is right on the coast and rain is changing over to snow a few hours earlier than expected with the temperatures dropping sooner.  The storm is right on track, time wise...no stalling or slowing.  There is also a lot of moisture from the remnants of Rina coming right up the coast and feeding this storm.  The earlier change over with lowering temperatures and additional moisture means higher possibility of more accumulation of snow.

9:30 am and snow fall just started here. At least I just got the boat covered.

 TT^

Heavy rain around 6am then up to now a steady rain.Wind is blowin pretty good. Cold. fcp snow forcasted to start around 5pm.

Where are you located?
« Last Edit: October 29, 2011, 10:42:02 AM by Pfishingruven »


 

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