NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition July 2-6, 2012

[Pfishingruven]

The first week of July is looking like a typical summer week.  Both the weather and the water will be cooperative with only slight chances of scattered or isolated showers and/or thunderstorms and no forecasted Small Craft Advisories inshore or offshore.  Temperatures will still be hot and humid with Wednesday and Thursday being the muggiest days of the week.  Heat indices will be in the upper 90’s and even into the 100’s in some areas (mainly inland and urban areas).  The immediate coast and on the water will see cooler temperatures.  Winds will be mainly out of the northwest and west all week.

A large area of high pressure still remains in the southeast and will stay there through next week.  A weak cold front will cross the area tonight and then stall out to the south of NJ.  This cold front then begins moving northeast as a warm front Tuesday into Wednesday.  Later Wednesday and into Thursday another cold front will move through, bringing the greatest chances of rain and thunderstorms to the area and again stall out across the Mid Atlantic Region on Friday.

Monday
Sky:  Sunny & Clear
Precipitation:  0% central and northern, 20% afternoon showers/thunderstorms southern areas.
Temperatures
High:  Upper 80’s low 90’s
Low:  Mid 60’s
Sunrise: 5:33am
Sunset: 8:28pm


Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-8/10
Weather2Hunt.com-43/50

Tuesday-
Sky:  Partly cloudy turning to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  20% showers/thunderstorms
Temperatures
High:  Upper 80’s low 90’s
Low:  Upper 60’s low 70’s
Sunrise: 5:33am
Sunset: 8:28pm


Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-8/10
Weather2Hunt.com-43/50

Wednesday-
Sky:  Partly sunny turning mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  30% chance showers/thunderstorms
Temperatures
High:  Upper 80’s low 90’s
Low:  Low 70’s
Sunrise: 5:34am
Sunset: 8:28pm


Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-8/10
Weather2Hunt.com-47/50

Thursday
Sky:  Partly sunny turning partly cloudy
Precipitation:  Slight chance showers/thunderstorms
Temperatures
High:  Low 90’s
Low:  Upper 60’s low 70’s
Sunrise: 5:34am
Sunset: 8:28pm


Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-7/10
Weather2Hunt.com-43/10

Friday-
Sky:  Sunny & clear turning partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% chance showers/thunderstorms
Temperatures
High:  Upper 80’s low 90’s
Low:  Low 70’s
Sunrise: 5:35am
Sunset: 8:28pm


Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-5/10
Weather2Hunt.com-43/50

Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  78F
Monday Morning
Wind:  WNW 8-11 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Monday  Afternoon
Wind:  WNW 7-9 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Tuesday Morning
Wind:  WNW 6-8 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind:  SW 4-6 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Wednesday Morning
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Wed Afternoon
Wind:  W 5-10 knots, becoming NW after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Thursday Morning
Wind:  WNW 3-5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Thursday Afternoon
Wind:  WNW 3-5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Friday Morning
Wind:  ENE 6-8 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Friday Night
Wind:  ESE 7-9 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)                              



Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  72F
Monday Morning
Winds: NW 9 to 13 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: NW 8 to 11 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
 Tuesday Morning
Winds: NW 6 to 8 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 11 sec.
 Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: S 3 to 5 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 11 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SW 5 to 6 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 11 sec.
 Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 11 sec.
 Thursday Morning
Winds: WNW 4 to 6 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 5 sec.
 Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 0 to 1 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
 Friday Morning
Winds: ENE 7 to 10 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 9 sec.
 Friday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 8 to 11 knots
Seas: SE 2 feet at 9 sec.

Seaside Heights Tides



Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  74F
Monday Morning
Winds: NNE 9 to 12 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 6 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 4 to 5 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 6 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WNW 4 to 6 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 10 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: S 7 to 10 knots
Seas: ESE 1 feet at 11 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SSW 7 to 10 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 5 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 10 to 14 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 5 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: NW 6 to 8 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 6 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 5 to 7 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 6 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: NNE 4 to 6 knots
Seas: SE 2 feet at 9 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: E 9 to 12 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 7 sec.

Cape May (Ocean) Tides



Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  79F
Monday Morning
Wind:  N 5 knots
Seas:  1-2  feet  
Monday  Afternoon
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Tuesday Morning
Wind:  W 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Wind:  S 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Morning
Wind:  SW 5-10kt
Seas:  1-2 feet
Wed Afternoon
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 ft or less
Thursday Morning
Wind:  N 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Thursday Afternoon
 Wind:  S 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Friday Morning
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Friday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides



Offshore Waters

Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon
Monday Morning
Winds: NW 11 to 15 knots
Seas: S 4 feet at 6 sec.
Monday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 10 to 14 knots
Seas: S 4 feet at 6 sec.
Tuesday Morning
Winds: NW 7 to 10 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 11 sec.
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: W 4 to 5 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 11 sec.
Wednesday Morning
Winds: SSW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 11 sec.
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 13 to 18 knots
Seas: SSW 4 feet at 5 sec.
Thursday Morning
Winds: WSW 7 to 10 knots
Seas: SSW 4 feet at 6 sec.
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 7 to 10 knots
Seas: SSW 4 feet at 7 sec.
Friday Morning
Winds: ENE 8 to 11 knots
Seas: S 4 feet at 9 sec.
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ENE 9 to 12 knots
Seas: S 4 feet at 8 sec.



NWS Ocean Prediction Center 3 Day Sea Surface Temperature

NWS Ocean Prediction Center 3 Day Gulf Stream Currents

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather…The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****Forecasts obtained from the National Weather Service (NOAA) & Buoy Weather

[Hotrod]

   Loving the new info and layout Matt

[Pfishingruven]

Thanks Rod!  May take a few runs to perfect and tweak the info so that it is easy to read and concise.  This run might be the one...??

Hope everyone is finding this useful?  Any feedback would be great (and be honest )

Thanks!

 

[Hotrod]

That.. is a lot of work my friend..  I love it.. everything in one place.. probably the best weather source on the web

[Reel McCoy]

Great reports Please keep them coming.

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has already issued a Slight Risk of Severe Weather for the 4th of July for the majority of NJ, excluding parts of southern NJ (see map).  The main threat as of today's issuance is going to be damaging winds coming from squall lines and clusters of storms.

Stay tuned for updates!



SPC Day 3 Outlook

[Mr Limpett]

Great report, Thanks!

[Pfishingruven]

Coastal Flood Statement
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
256 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

DEZ002>004-NJZ012>014-020>027-030200-
/O.NEW.KPHI.CF.S.0018.120702T2300Z-120703T0200Z/
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
256 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

...SOME LOW-END MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THIS EVENING...

* LOCATION...THE ATLANTIC COAST, ADJACENT BACK BAYS, RARITAN BAY
  AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY.

* COASTAL FLOODING...SPOTTY LOW-END MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

* TIMING...700 PM TO 745 PM ALONG THE COAST AND RARITAN BAY AND
  800 PM TO 1000 PM ALONG ADJACENT BACK BAYS AND LOWER DELAWARE
  BAY.

* IMPACTS...LOW-END MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OF THE MOST FLOOD-PRONE
  AREAS.

$$

MPD

[mikeyland]

very nice an alot of work great job

[fellinger]

Tomorrow is looking good!

[fluke - u]

 ..Thanks for the posts and all your work..  ,,,,,,

[Pfishingruven]

Tomorrow is looking good!

Tomorrow is looking real good!

 

[fellinger]

Tomorrow is looking good!

Tomorrow is looking real good!

 

Heeeerrrrreeeee sharkie sharkie sharkie!! (and BFT?)

[Pfishingruven]

The Storm Prediction Center has lowered the severe weather risk for NJ from a Slight Risk (15%) to only a 5% risk on Wednesday.  This doesn't mean we still won't see storms on Wednesday, just that they are not expecting them to be as severe.  This forecast could change by later today or tomorrow again!



SPC Day 2 Outlook

[Pfishingruven]

For Mercer, Gloucester, Camden and Burlington Counties

Excessive Heat Watch
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012


DEZ001-NJZ015-017>019-PAZ067>071-032030-
/O.NEW.KPHI.EH.A.0004.120704T1700Z-120705T2200Z/
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...TRENTON...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
347 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...UP TO NEAR 101 EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO
  AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WEDNESDAY AND
  THURSDAY...WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN PORTIONS OF THE URBAN
  CENTERS IN THE 74 TO 78 DEGREE RANGE.

* DURATION...IT APPEARS EVEN HOTTER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY
  SATURDAY WHEN THE TEMPERATURE MAY SOAR TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.

* THE HEAT WAVE FROM THE PHILADELPHIA AREA THROUGH WILMINGTON
  WHICH WAS ALREADY 5 DAYS...MAY EXTEND TO 10 DAYS...BARRING ANY
  MIDDAY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

* IMPACTS...THE CUMULATIVE IMPACTS OF THE HEAT ARE A DANGER...
  ESPECIALLY FOR THE ELDERLY...INFIRM AND VERY YOUNG THAT DO NOT
  HAVE AIR CONDITIONING.

* RELIEF...SUBSTANTIAL RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED
  BEFORE THIS COMING SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION IN
WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY
IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP
ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

&&

$$
DRAG

Excessive Heat Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
328 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

DEZ001-NJZ015-017>019-PAZ067>071-041000-
/O.UPG.KPHI.EH.A.0004.120704T1700Z-120705T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.EH.W.0004.120704T1500Z-120705T2200Z/
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...TRENTON...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
328 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE HIGHLY URBANIZED PORTIONS OF THE
DELAWARE VALLEY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO
6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE HIGHLY URBANIZED PORTIONS OF THE DELAWARE
VALLEY. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...UP TO AROUND 100 EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO
  AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH
  HEAT INDICES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
  ON MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

* DURATION...IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
  MAY BE EQUALLY UNCOMFORTABLE AND THAT EVEN HOTTER CONDITIONS ARE
  POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WHEN THE TEMPERATURE MAY SOAR TO NEAR 100
  DEGREES. SUNDAY MAY BE COOLER, BUT STILL MAY TOP OUT ABOVE 90
  DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...THE CUMULATIVE IMPACTS OF THE HEAT ARE A DANGER ESPECIALLY
  FOR THE ELDERLY, INFIRM, THE VERY YOUNG, AND THOSE IN INNER CITY
  AREAS THAT DO NOT HAVE AIR CONDITIONING. PETS ALSO ARE
  SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE HEAT.

* THE NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT
  PHILADELPHIA AND WILMINGTON HAD REACHED SIX DAYS AS OF TODAY
  (TUESDAY). THE RECORD AT PHILADELPHIA IS 18 CONSECUTIVE DAYS,
  WHICH WAS SET IN 1988. THE RECORD AT WILMINGTON IS 16
  CONSECUTIVE DAYS, WHICH WAS SET IN 1895. IT PRESENTLY APPEARS
  THIS PERIOD MAY LAST 11 CONSECUTIVE DAYS, AND END ON MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION
IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE LIKELY. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS, STAY
IN AN AIR CONDITIONED ROOM, STAY OUT OF THE SUN, AND CHECK UP ON
RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE, RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITY TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN POSSIBLE
AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK, THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY HEAT
SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE IS AN
EMERGENCY - CALL 9 1 1.

PLEASE MAKE SURE THAT PETS HAVE ACCESS TO PLENTY OF COOL WATER AND
A SHADED AND WELL VENTILATED AREA. THE MOST HUMANE THING TO DO IS
TO BRING THEM INTO AN AIR CONDITIONED PLACE.

PLEASE NEVER LEAVE ANY PERSON OR ANIMAL IN A PARKED VEHICLE FOR
ANY LENGTH OF TIME.

&&

$$

MPD

[Pfishingruven]

For all coastal areas of NJ

Coastal Flood Statement
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
219 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

DEZ001>004-NJZ012>014-016-020>027-040400-
/O.NEW.KPHI.CF.S.0019.120704T0000Z-120704T0400Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-
CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
219 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SOME LOW-END MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THIS EVENING...

* LOCATION...THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE, RARITAN BAY, ADJACENT BACK
  BAYS AND DELAWARE BAY.

* COASTAL FLOODING...SOME LOW-END MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

* TIMING...FROM 800 PM TO 900 PM ALONG THE COAST AND RARITAN BAY.
  LATER ALONG ADJACENT BACK BAYS. FROM 900 PM TO MIDNIGHT UP
  DELAWARE BAY.

* IMPACTS...THE MORE FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOW-END MINOR
  TIDAL FLOODING.

$$

MPD

[Pfishingruven]

A line of storms has formed in western PA and will move into the area by midnight(about 4 hours ahead of projected models) and through the overnight into the early morning hours.  Storms may be accopanied by strong wind gusts, hail, heavy rains and dangerous cloud to ground lightning!



I also get asked quite often about this radar image.  Clear day and then in the afternoon, rain starts showing up on the radar.  If you watch the radar the rain is actually moving west or northwest, even.  This is from sea breezes.  This afternoon winds switched from northwest to a southeast wind.  This will cause cooler moist air from the ocean to meet hotter moist air on land.  Clouds will form and if there is enough temperature gradient or moisture you can get rain.  Today it was just mainly clouds.

You can see the line on the radar image here

[Pfishingruven]

Trivia for the July 4, 2012

Happy 4th of July!!

Who purchased his first thermometer while in Philadelphia signing the Declaration of Independence (before he left Philadelphia, he would also purchase a barometer...possibly the first and only one in the "USA")

"Some are weather wise, some are otherwise" is a quote from which signer of the Declaration of Independence?