Author Topic: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Weekend Edition Sept 22-23, 2012 (Read 2503 times)

Pfishingruven · « **on:** September 20, 2012, 11:45:07 AM »

First weekend of Fall and the waters temperatures have dropped even more to the low 70’s. There will be a chance of rain and thunderstorms, possibly severe Saturday Night into Sunday Morning as a cold front passes through. Winds will gradually change from the east to the south bringing warm, moist air into the area. Temperatures will be warmer on Saturday with higher humidity and then cooler on Sunday with a bit drier air. Water conditions are rated good for Saturday for all locations, however Sunday will bring gusty winds and higher seas for the morning inshore and all day midshore to offshore. Gusty winds could build seas to 5-6 feet with Small Craft Advisories for Sunday. Saturday Night into all day Sunday will bring Moderate Risk of Rip Currents and High/Rough Surf conditions

High pressure will weaken and a cold front will approach from the west and cross the region on Saturday. High pressure will then build in behind the front for Sunday and likely through the midweek.

Saturday
Sky: Mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation: 0% to slight chance (day), 40% chance rain/thunderstorms (possibly severe) between 11pm & 4am
Temperatures
High: Low 80’s
Low: Upper 50’s
Sunrise: 6:44am
Sunset: 6:54pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-9/10
Weather2Hunt.com-30/50

Sunday
Sky: Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation: 0% to slight chance
Temperatures
High: Low to mid 70’s
Low: Upper 40’s
Sunrise: 6:45am
Sunset: 6:53pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather-8/10
Weather2Hunt.com-33/50

Friday Night into Saturday Morning Surface Analysis

Saturday’s Surface Analysis

Sunday’s Surface Analysis

HPC Thursday - Sunday Quantitative Precipitation Forecast

HPC Sunday - Tuesday Quantitative Precipitation Forecast

SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook

Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature: 71F
Saturday Morning
Wind: S 5-10 knots
Seas: 1-2 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Wind: S 10-15 knots becoming W after midnight
Seas: 1-2 feet
Sunday Morning
Wind: NW 10-15 knots
Seas: 1-2 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Wind: NW 10-15 knots
Seas: 1-2 feet becoming 1 foot or less

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides

Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature: 71F
Saturday Morning
Winds: S 8 to 11 knots
Seas: E 2 feet at 12 sec.
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas: E 3 feet at 11 sec.
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WNW 14 to 19 knots
Seas: E 4 feet at 11 sec.
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: E 3 feet at 11 sec.

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature: 70F
Saturday Morning
Winds: SSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 11 sec.
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 14 to 18 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 11 sec.
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 18 to 24 knots
Seas: E 4 feet at 11 sec.
Sunday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 13 to 18 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 11 sec.

Cape May (Ocean) Tides

Delaware Bay
Water Temperature: 64F
Saturday Morning
Wind: S 10-15 knots
Seas: 2-3 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Wind: S 10-15 knots becoming W after midnight
Seas: 2-3 feet
Sunday Morning
Wind: NW 10-15 knots
Seas: 1-2 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Wind: NW 10-15 knots
Seas: 1-2 feet

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Saturday Morning
Winds: SSW 6 to 8 knots
Seas: E 4 feet at 11 sec.
Saturday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 12 to 17 knots
Seas: E 5 feet at 11 sec.
Sunday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 19 to 26 knots
Seas: E 7 feet at 11 sec.
Sunday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WNW 15 to 21 knots
Seas: E 6 feet at 11 sec.

NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperatures 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations. Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only. Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling. Every boat and captain has different operating values. You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

Pfishingruven · « **Reply #1 on:** September 22, 2012, 10:11:13 AM »

It will be mostly sunny today with highs in the low 80's. Storms will move in later this evening/night as squall lines form in front of the approaching cold front. Storms could be strong to severe with the main threat damaging winds. There is always a threat of supercells forming and the possibility of a tornado. There is a possibility of a Watch this evening, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch if any.

Models and forecasts have backed off on the water conditions, however, there is currently a Small Craft Advisory in effect for Sandy Hook, NJ to Fenwick Island, DE. This does not includes New York Harbor, Raritan Bay or Delaware Bay. Models have changed this this morning, but the NWS PHI is still calling for SCA conditions through 2PM Sunday with 25 knot winds and seas to 5 feet. This might change with the next Area Forecast in a few hours. Currently, water conditions are rated cautious for this afternoon and good for tomorrow for inshore. Midshore to offshore is showing cautious through Sunday afternoon and then good. Offshore Hudson Canyon is showing cautious for all day Sunday with 7 feet seas at 11 seconds. Check your local conditions before making or canceling any plans and I will update any major changes here.

Current Surface Map