NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition Jun 24-28, 2013

[ped579]

Lets see if this works...

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=BWI&isingle=multiple&itype=ir

I know Matt knows this but,As the color turns blue that is the cloud tops the higher the tops the more there is a potential for storms to POP UP...

Happy Catching

Paul

[Pfishingruven]

I've been watching the front start to build already...

Yes, you can see where the storms are building !  Good link to the IR Sat !

[Pfishingruven]

Flash Flood Watch issued by NWS PHI & NYC for Sussex, Warren, Morris, Passaic, Bergen, Hudson, Essex & Union Counties.

Flash Flood Watch
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
324 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

NJZ001-007-008-271000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FF.A.0003.130627T2000Z-130628T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN
324 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...MORRIS...SUSSEX AND WARREN.

* FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
  PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME AND PRODUCE
  FLASH FLOODING. WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS, 1 TO 2 WITH
  LOCALLY 3 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE.

* ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN WOULD CAUSE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
  FLOODING.

* ALTHOUGH MAIN STEM RIVERS SUCH AS THE PASSAIC, RARITAN, AND THE
  DELAWARE COULD RISE A COUPLE FEET, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
  WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG/MEOLA

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
329 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
271100-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FF.A.0003.130627T1600Z-130628T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
329 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...
  NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN
  FAIRFIELD...NORTHERN MIDDLESEX...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN...NORTHERN
  NEW LONDON...SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD...SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...
  SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON. IN NORTHEAST NEW
  JERSEY...EASTERN BERGEN...EASTERN ESSEX...EASTERN PASSAIC...
  EASTERN UNION...HUDSON...WESTERN BERGEN...WESTERN ESSEX...
  WESTERN PASSAIC AND WESTERN UNION. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
  BRONX...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...NORTHEASTERN
  SUFFOLK...NORTHERN NASSAU...NORTHERN QUEENS...NORTHERN
  WESTCHESTER...NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...ORANGE...PUTNAM...
  RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)...ROCKLAND...SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK...
  SOUTHERN NASSAU...SOUTHERN QUEENS...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER AND
  SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK.

* FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON

* A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH FROM THE OHIO
  VALLEY INTO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
  FRIDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASING
  LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM
  INTERACTS WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA.

* THIS SETUP IS CONDUCIVE TO BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND
  THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA. LOCALIZED RAINFALL
  RATES COULD EXCEED 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN
  OVER THE SAME AREA FOR AN HOUR...WHICH WOULD CAUSE URBAN AND
  SMALL STREAM FLASH FLOODING.

* OVERALL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
  THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE PATH OF
  TRAINING ACTIVITY. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE MARKED RISES ON MAIN
  STEM RIVERS...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR
  BANKS.

* ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
  THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY PROLONG THE THREAT
  FOR FLOODING.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

[Pfishingruven]

Nasty storm moving through that has not been warned...looks nasty on radar!  Be careful!!

[Pfishingruven]

The storm posted above is now Severe Warned and capable of winds in excess of 57 mph and/or hail 1 inch or larger in addition to dangerous lightning and heavy rains.  Anyone in outside in the path of this storm needs to take cover inside a vehicle or building.  Those out on the beaches or on the water take appropriate actions NOW!

[ped579]

Looks like the train effect in the northern counties.  Be careful up there...

[Pfishingruven]

The training across Camden, Burlington and Ocean County was pretty significant.  Picked up just under a half of inch of rain from those storms !

[Pfishingruven]

A mix of sun and clouds this morning with a few showers across the state.  Showers will be clearing out early this morning leaving partly sunny skies.  Clouds will continue to increase throughout the day.  Today will be slightly cooler but again hazy and humid.  Maybe not as humid as the rest of the week has been, but still noticeably and uncomfortably humid with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80's inland with upper 70's to low 80's along/on the water.  Lows tonight again only in the low 70's.  Overall, today will be a bit breezier as well.  Currently winds are calm out of the west.  Winds will slowly increase out of the west to 5 mph then changing to the south and increasing to 10-15 mph by afternoon.  The SPC has issued another Slight Risk for Severe Weather today.  Thunderstorms will begin in the afternoon through evening hours starting off as more of a scattered event and evolving into a widespread rain event during the overnight hours with heavy rain.  Thunderstorm threats for today are  damaging winds, hail, dangerous lightning, heavy rains and a very low risk of storms capable of producing tornadoes.  With these heavy, fast rains, flooding conditions are also a concern.  A Flash Flood Watch is still in Effect for Northern NJ.  Be alert today to any changing weather conditions!

Water conditions are rated Good today, however winds and seas increase this afternoon to just under Cautious & Small Craft Advisory Criteria.  Winds and seas within any thunderstorms moving through will also be much higher than forecast.  Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all ocean waters from 10PM Thursday Night through 6PM Friday Night.  Currently, winds and seas are low across all coastal waters.  Winds and seas will increase throughout the day.  Raritan Bay will have SW winds around 5 knots and seas 1 foot or less with winds changing to the S and increasing to 10 knots.  Limited visibility will at 1-3 nm during rain and thunderstorms.  Barnegat Bay will have S winds 5-8 knots and seas 1 foot or less with winds increasing to 9-12 knots in the afternoon and to 13 knots tonight.  Delaware Bay will have SW winds 5-10 knots with seas 1-2 feet with winds changing to the south and increasing in the afternoon to 10-15 knots with 20 knot gusts and seas 2-3 feet.  Tonight S winds will remain 10-15 knots with 20 knot gusts with seas 2-4 feet.  Inshore water will have WSW winds 5-10 knots and seas 2 feet at 6 seconds.  Winds will change to SSW and increase to 18 knots with seas to 3 feet at 6 seconds.  Midshore to Offshore will have SW winds to 17 knots and seas 3 feet at 6 seconds building to 5 feet at 7 seconds this afternoon.

Surf and Beach conditions will be fair today with moderate surf conditions and a Moderate Risk of rip currents.  Currently W winds are calm around 5 mph with wave heights 1-2 feet.  Winds will change to the south and increase to 15 mph this afternoon with wave heights to 3 feet.  UV Index is Very High at 9/10.  Both Rip Currents and the threat of storms popping up and being caught on the beach in a thunderstorm are concerns today.  So keep an eye to the sky while you are enjoying the sun and sand today!

Tomorrow's weather will be about the same as today with some more clouds tomorrow and temperatures to the mid to upper 80's inland, upper 70's to low 80's along/on the water, hazy and humid with a chance of showers and thunderstorms all day.  Water conditions are not looking great with Small Craft Advisories across all ocean waters tomorrow.  Surf conditions will be moderate with Moderate Risk of Rip Currents with gustier winds and waves around 3 feet.

The weekend is looking like much of the week has.  I will have a complete Outlook by the later afternoon.

Have a great day and be alert for changing weather today!

[Pfishingruven]

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch for Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, GLoucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Salem, Somerset, Sussex and Warren Counties until 10PM.

A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for Severe Thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes. Thunderstorms can also produce damaging winds, hail, dangerous lightning and heavy rains.

Tornado Watch #377

[Pfishingruven]

I was in the process of updating this information when the Tornado Watch was issued.  There are already storms firing in Central PA with tornado warned storms.

The Storm Prediction Center has increased the risk of damaging winds for our area. They have also issued a Mesoscale Discussion (Severe Weather Discussion) stating that the potential for Severe Weather for cluster thunderstorms with damaging winds and hail with the possibility of supercells producing tornadoes.

Right now, there may be a few isolated showers across the state, but the clouds are building in. It is very humid right now with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70's. Along with daytime heating, there is moderate to significant instability, coupled with some wind shear from the upper level jet stream conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms and a Watch will likely be issued. Some storms are already firing in Central PA.

Keep an eye to the sky and an ear to Warnings. Be alert and stay safe!

I will have some updates to follow after I look over all of the forecasts and data!

[ped579]

It seems a lot of the nasty stuff in central Pa. is going north.  But like we all know that could change in a heartbeat.

[Pfishingruven]

It seems a lot of the nasty stuff in central Pa. is going north.  But like we all know that could change in a heartbeat.

Yeah, I am worried about the secondary low sitting south of the primary circulation and the upper level jet coming right across NJ.  That and any tiny cells that just explode ahead of any lines.  They will have nothing to compete with!

[ped579]

Just checked the IR of the eastern conus and you can see things firing up from Del. Bay westward heading NNE.  Should be interesting.

[wimpy]

Just looked at current map and the CC rotation starting over the Delmarva Penn up towards Elkton is wild. Gonna get hairy.

[Pfishingruven]

Yeah with almost a NNE movement from the upper level jet and predominantly western winds today, shear is going to be a helper here.  Although, the current mesoanalysis does not not show anything off the charts!  CAPE is only sitting at 1500-2000 J/kg, LI is only a -5, Helicity is 100 m2/s2 or less, Bulk Shear is less than 25 kt, EHI is only 0.5-1 and the STP is 2-3.  These are all marginal for tornadoes, but definitely can support strong to severe storms that could produce a tornado here or there.  The biggest instability right now is west of us in PA.

[Pfishingruven]

Storms have already moved into the state.  Most of these storms are coming from the S/SSW although depending upon where in relation to the circulation around the Low, some areas may get storms from the S/SSE.  Storms will be moving N/NNE until the Low gets over and past NJ and then they will move more northeasterly.  These storms right now are just strong, NO severe or tornado warnings within the state so far.  PA has seen both severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings today.  Some of the storms do look like they are strengthening some.

Be safe!

[Pfishingruven]

Flash Flood Warning
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NJC019-021-035-280400-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FF.W.0018.130628T0004Z-130628T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
804 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN HUNTERDON COUNTY...
  MERCER COUNTY...
  SOUTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT...

* AT 758 PM EDT...RAIN GAGE REPORTS OF UP TO 2.5 INCHES IN ONE HOUR
  HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN SECTIONS OF MERCER COUNTY...ALONG WITH
  ROADWAY FLOODING. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES AN ADDITIONAL ONE INCH
  OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING
  HAS THEREFORE BEEN ISSUED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN
DEPTH BY FOOT OR IN AN AUTOMOBILE. TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN!

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 4049 7447 4041 7459 4036 7463 4032 7462
      4028 7449 4025 7448 4019 7457 4019 7461
      4016 7460 4015 7462 4018 7471 4015 7472
      4021 7477 4032 7492 4058 7482 4055 7452
      4050 7447

$$

FORECASTER:JJM

[Pfishingruven]

The Tornado Watch has been canceled for Atlantic, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester & Salem Counties.  The Tornado Watch is still in effect for the remaining counties north of this area!

[Pfishingruven]

Another hazy, hot and humid day!  Today will be a mix of sun and clouds with high temperatures mid to upper 80's inland and low 80's along/on the water.  Overnight lows in the upper 60's. There is a chance of isolated or scattered showers or thunderstorms all day today with some being strong to severe.  There is a low risk of damaging winds.  The SPC has only put a generalized risk across the state today.  Tonight showers and thunderstorms will be more widespread with gusty winds and heavy rains.  With any heavy rains, flooding and flash flooding conditions will likely be a problem statewide.  Several Rivers are running above normal again throughout the state.

Water conditions are cautious today with Small Craft Advisories for all Ocean Waters from Maine to Georgia.  Small Craft Advisories will remain in effect through Saturday and could be extended from there.  With an increased pressure gradient and an already strong southerly flow winds are 10-15 knots gusting 20-25 knots.  Raritan Bay will have S winds 5-10 knots  becoming SW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots and seas 1-2 feet.  Patchy fog is possible after midnight and visibility in storms or fog reduced to 1-3 nm.  Barnegat Bay will have SSW winds 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots and seas still 1 foot or less (I would expect a decent wind chop waves with higher winds).  Delaware Bay will have SW winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots and seas 2-3 feet.  Inshore waters will have SW/SSW winds 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots with seas 4-6 feet at 8 seconds.  Midshore to Offshore waters will have SW winds 15-20 knots gusting 25+ knots with seas 7-8 feet at 9 seconds.

Surf and Beach conditions will be elevated with Moderate Risk of rip currents and some higher, rough surf today.  Winds and surf will increase throughout the day.  SW winds to 15 mph with possible higher gusts and wave heights 3-5 feet.  UV Index Very High at 9/10.  Between pop-up storms and rougher surf conditions be very careful at the beach today.

The weekend looks like a repeat of today with possibly some improving water conditions?  I will have the Weekend Outlook this morning (not lying this time...between the severe weather that didn't really happen here and some off data, I held off until this morning).  Have a great day!

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has just increased the area to a Slight Risk again today.  Severe thunderstorms are possible with damaging winds, hail, dangerous lightning and heavy rain causing flooding conditions.  These storms are also capable of producing tornadoes.

Be alert and stay safe!