Here is an updated Briefing and Snowfall Forecast. Not any major changes from the NWS. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for all NJ Counties except Cape May County, which has a Winter Weather Advisory. Gale Warnings are in effect for ALL inshore coastal waters and offshore coastal waters have Storm Warnings posted.
Just a couple of observations from analyses this morning:
1. The low in the GOM is slightly farther south and so is the stalled out front that it will likely travel along. This will give the storm a more southern start and MAY bring it more easterly. The official track is the same, but all of the model ensembles bring it more east. Remember 50 miles could be a big difference.
2. The storm has over-performed and intensity will be right around or below 980 mb! This is a strong storm. Short range, very accurate models, show the upper level low (the main piece of energy, that will transfer to the coastal low) being closed off (like an eye of a hurricane) around Northern Georgia. If this verifies, this transition may occur farther south and sooner than anticipated, giving the storm the ability to strengthen and over-perform the forecasts.
3. No matter where or what you are forecast to receive, tonight (around midnight or so) through tomorrow is going to be a MESS! Even Cape May County and immediate coastal areas which may only see rain or a mix, will have winds to 50 knots, high surf , coastal flooding, beach erosion and seas 10-20 feet!
Be safe! Last update this evening...before wait and see begins
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NWS PHI Nor'Easter Briefing #3
