Author Topic: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition:Jul 28-Aug 1, 2014  (Read 1470 times)

Offline Pfishingruven

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A rough start to the week, however clearing out for the majority of the week. Monday will have a mix of sun and clouds with a chance of showers and/or thunderstorms. Some storms could be strong to severe, especially for adjacent coastal waters. By Monday Night conditions will begin to clear as a cold front moves through bringing cooler and drier air. Highs on Monday will be in the mid 80’s with high humidity. By Monday Night overnight lows will be in the 50’s and 60’s with low to moderate humidity. Tuesday through Friday will be clear with more sun than clouds until Friday Night. Highs will be in the 70’s and 80’s with overnight lows in the 50’s and 60’s with low to moderate humidity, increasing towards the end of the week. Water conditions will continue to be Cautious with Small Craft Advisories on Monday with winds to 30 knots and inshore seas to 5 feet at 7 seconds and midshore to offshore to 7 feet at 7 seconds. Wind and seas will build Sunday into Sunday Night then continue into Monday. However, late on Monday winds will decrease and seas begin to subside. Tuesday through Friday conditions will be good with light and variable winds, seas to 2-3 feet with a 3 foot swell at 6-7 seconds. Southerly flow will return for the end of the week. Surf and beach conditions will be OK on Monday with rougher surf and wave heights averaging 2-4 feet with 3-6 foot waves possible and Moderate to High Risk of Rip Currents. Tuesday through Friday surf and beach conditions look good with variable winds, normal surf and wave heights 1-3 feet with Low to Moderate Risk of Rip Currents. Water temperatures are steady. Rivers and bays are in the upper 70’s. Surf temperatures are in the upper 60’s to low 70’s. Inshore ocean waters are in the upper 60’s and offshore waters are in the low to mid 70’s. UV Index will be Moderate to Very High with High to Very High ratings most of the week.

An area of low pressure will move out of the area Sunday Night and into New England on Monday. This will pull a cold front across the area on Monday and Monday  Night. High pressure will begin moving into the area later on Tuesday and remain over the area through the end of the week.

There is an area in the Eastern Atlantic being watched. The Eastern Pacific has 3 active systems. A tropical depression, a tropical storm and an invest area.

The weekend will bring chances of rain and thunderstorms with temperatures in the 70’s and 80’s and overnight lows in the 60’s. Water, surf and beach conditions look good right now.

Have a great week and thanks for reading!

Monday
Sky:  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  20%-60% chance of showers and/or thunderstorms during the day, 0%-30% chance of showers and/or thunderstorms during the night
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 80’s inland and along the coast with upper 70’s across the north
Low:   Low 60’s inland, mid 60’s along the coast, upper 50’s across the north
UV Index:  5-7/15 (Moderate-High)
Sunrise: 5:51am
Sunset: 8:15pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Partly to mostly sunny then mostly clear
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Upper 70’s to low 80’s
Low:   Upper 50’s inland, mid 60’s along the coast, mid 50’s across the north
UV Index:  7-8/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 5:52am
Sunset: 8:14pm


Wednesday
Sky:   Sunny then mostly clear
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Upper 70’s to low 80’s
Low:   Low 60’s inland, mid to upper 60’s along the coast, mid to upper 50’s across the north
UV Index:  7-8/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 5:53am
Sunset: 8:13pm


Thursday
Sky:  Sunny then mostly clear
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 80’s, mid to upper 70’s along the coast
Low:   Low 60’s inland, mid to upper 60’s along the coast, mid to upper 50’s across the north
UV Index:  7-8/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 5:54am
Sunset: 8:12pm


Friday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 80’s, mid to upper 70’s along the coast
Low:   Low to mid to upper 60’s inland, upper 60’s along the coast
UV Index:  7-8/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 5:54am
Sunset: 8:11pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  77°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:   SW 10-15 knots becoming W 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the afternoon
Seas:    2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  NW 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  2 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet

Tuesday
Wind:  W 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  W 5 knots becoming NW after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  N 5 knots becoming SW in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SW 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday
Wind:  W 5 knots becoming S in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  S 5 knots becoming light and variable after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday
Wind:  NE 5 knots becoming E in the afternoon and evening
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  E 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                         



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  77°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 16 to 21 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Tuesday Morning
Winds: WNW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NNE 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: S 2 to 2 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: WSW 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: W 2 to 2 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SE 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  70°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Tuesday Morning
Winds: WNW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: W 3 to 4 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: N 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 1 to 2 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: WSW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: WSW 3 to 4 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SE 6 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  77°F
Monday
Wind:  WSW 12-16 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  W 7-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  NW 7 knots becoming W in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SW 6 knots becoming variable and less than 5 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  Variable winds 5 knots or less
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  S 6 knots becoming variable and less than 5 knots after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  Variable winds less than 5 knots becoming S 5-8 knots in the morning
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  S 6 knots becoming variable and less than 5 knots in the evening
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  NE 5 knots becoming E in the afternoon and evening
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  E 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  74°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 17 to 23 knots
Seas:  SSE 5 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Tuesday Morning
Winds: NNW 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: NNW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: N 1 to 1 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: WSW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: SSE 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: SE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  78°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  W 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  W 10-15 knots becoming NW 5-10 knots late in the evening
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot

Tuesday
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Tuesday Night
Wind:  W 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday
Wind:  NW 5 knots becoming S in the afternoon
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Friday
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Friday Night
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  74°F
Monday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 18 to 24 knots
Seas: SSW 7 feet at 7 seconds
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 16 to 22 knots
Seas: S 7 feet at 7 seconds

Tuesday Morning
Winds: WNW 9 to 12 knots
Seas: S 4 feet at 8 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 6 to 9 knots
Seas: S 3 feet at 7 seconds
Wednesday Morning
Winds: N 4 to 6 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: NW 3 to 4 knots
Seas: SE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Thursday Morning
Winds: SW 6 to 9 knots
Seas: SE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SW 10 to 14 knots
Seas: SE 4 feet at 8 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: SSW 4 to 6 knots
Seas: SE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 5 to 6 knots
Seas: SE 3 feet at 7 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 





Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!




*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)


Offline IrishAyes

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Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Severe Weather Potential for Monday
« Reply #2 on: July 28, 2014, 01:03:58 PM »
There is a generalized low risk of strong to severe thunderstorms today for Coastal and Northeastern NJ, as well as adjacent bordering coastal waters. Strong to severe storms capable of heavy rains, dangerous lightning, damaging winds and isolated hail. Tornadoes can never be completely ruled out, but that risk seems to be north and south of the state today. With high temperatures and humidity and an approaching cold front, storms will be possible throughout the day, with chances lessening into the night. Cooler and drier air will begin moving in tonight.

Be safe!





Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Update to the Week's Outlook
« Reply #3 on: July 30, 2014, 11:54:51 AM »
Thursday and Friday will bring some lower chances of showers and thunderstorms. The SPC has placed the entire state in a Generalized Risk, so some storms could be strong to severe. The water, surf and beach forecasts have not changed; except for any marine waters affected by thunderstorms. These chances will continue into the weekend.

The area in the Eastern Atlantic, Invest 93L, appears that it will organize and strengthen. Aircraft Recon is flying into the area today. Models are bringing this storm towards the East Coast. This will be something to monitor over the next few days.


 

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