Author Topic: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: Aug 11-15, 2014  (Read 1707 times)

Offline Pfishingruven

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A dry start and finish to the week and gusty winds and elevated seas mixed in for marine locations. Monday will start off dry with clouds building in later in the day and into the overnight with chances of showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday and Wednesday will see a more widely scattered to widespread rain event with 1-3+ inches of rain possible locally. Thunderstorms are also likely on Tuesday and Wednesday with strong to severe storms possible on Tuesday into Wednesday. Storms will begin to clear by later/late Wednesday and remain dry through the weekend. High temperatures will be in the 70’s and 80’s with overnight lows in the 50’s to 70’s. Humidity will be moderate to high through Wednesday/Wednesday Night, when drier and slightly cooler air moves in for Wednesday Night and stays through at least the end of the week. Water conditions will be all over the place, with a good portion of the week Cautious or borderline with the potential for Small Craft ADvisories. Overall, winds will pick up later on Monday increasing seas and continuing through Wednesday or Thursday. At times winds may be less, but seas could push 6 feet inshore and offshore this week. Checking local conditions and daily forecasts is important this week before venturing out. Remember, winds and wave heights could be greater in and around thunderstorms. NWS and BW differ a bit in forecasts this week, so checking both will give a better picture of conditions this week. A continued southerly flow that kicked in Sunday, will continue through Wednesday before shifting to a northerly and westerly component. Surf conditions will be OK to Cautious by later/late Monday into Tuesday and last through Wednesday or Thursday. Surf will be rough and pushing 3-5 feet even 4-6 feet at times.  Rip Current Risks will be Moderate to High with Low to Moderate risks for the end of the week. Water temperatures warmed into the 70’s this week. Winds from the south will change that some with cold water upwelling for the next 3-4 days. UV Index will be High to Very High all but Tuesday when it will be Low to Moderate.
 
High pressure will gradually move east and offshore Sunday overnight. Low pressure will track across the Ohio Valley Monday and eventually into Southeastern Canada Tuesday with its associated fronts cross the region on Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure will then build across the area for the end of the week and into the weekend.

There is an invest area in the Eastern Atlantic moving west-northwest off of Africa that is being watched.

The weekend looks dry with highs in the mid 70’s and low 80’s with overnight lows in the low to mid 60’s with low to moderate humidity. Water, surf and beach conditions look good for the weekend, right now with some potential gustier winds and elevated seas offshore.

Have a great week and thanks for reading! Good luck to all of those participating on the NJSWF Fluke Tournament.

Monday
Sky:  Mostly sunny to sunny becoming partly to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance during the day, 0%-20% chance of showers and/or thunderstorms (mainly southern areas)
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 80’s inland, upper 70’s along the coast
Low:   Mid 60’s to low 70’s inland and along the coast with low 60’s across the north
UV Index:  7-8/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 6:04am
Sunset: 7:59pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy to cloudy
Precipitation:  50%-70% chance of rain and/or thunderstorms all day
Temperatures
High:   Upper 70’s to low 80’s
Low:   Mid 60’s to low 70’s
UV Index:  0-3/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:05am
Sunset: 7:58pm


Wednesday
Sky:   Partly to mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear
Precipitation:  30%-70% chance of rain and/or thunderstorms during the day, 0%-slight chance at night
Temperatures
High:   Upper 70’s to low 80’s
Low:   Low 60’s inland, mid 60’s along the coast with upper 50’s across the north
UV Index:  6-8/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 6:06am
Sunset: 7:57pm


Thursday
Sky:  Mostly sunny to sunny becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Mid 70’s to low 80’s
Low:   Upper 50’s inland, mid 60’s along the coast, low to mid 50’s across the north
UV Index:  7-8/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 6:07am
Sunset: 7:56pm


Friday
Sky:  Mostly sunny to sunny becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear
Precipitation:  0%-slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Mid 70’s to low 80’s
Low:   Mid 50’s to low 60’s inland, mid to upper 60’s along the coast
UV Index:  7-9/15 (High-Very High)
Sunrise: 6:08am
Sunset: 7:54pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Tropics




Severe Weather Tuesday-Wednesday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  78°F
Monday
Wind:   S 5 knots increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots in the afternoon
Seas:    1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  SE 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  SE 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SE 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots becoming SW in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Thursday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                         



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  78°F
Monday Morning
Winds: W 1 to 2 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SSE 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSE 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Wednesday Morning
Winds: S 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  SE 5 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: WNW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: W 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  72°F
Monday Morning
Winds: NNW 1 to 2 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SSE 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WSW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SE 5 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: W 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: WNW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NNW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  SE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  78°F
Monday
Wind:  Variable winds less than 5 knots becoming SSE 5-9 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  SSE 10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  SE 12-16 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SE 11-14 knots becoming S 8-11 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  S 7-9 knots becoming W in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  W 11 knots
Seas:  1 foot
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  W 10-14 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  W 9-11 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  76°F
Monday Morning
Winds: ESE 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SE 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSE 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SSE 16 to 21 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet

Wednesday Morning
Winds: W 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: NW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  SE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NNW 11 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  76°F-79°F
Monday
Wind:  SE 5 knots increasing to 5-10 knots late morning and afternoon
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  SE 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SE 10-15 knots increasing to 15-20 knots late morning and afternoon
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:   1-3 feet
Tuesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  SE 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots becoming SW 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:   2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet

Wednesday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday
Wind:  W 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday
Wind:  W 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  75°F
Monday Morning
Winds: ESE 1 to 2 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SE 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SE 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 4 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SE 16 to 21 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 5 seconds
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: S 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SSE 7 feet at 7 seconds

Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  SE 6 feet at 7 seconds
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: NW 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  SE 5 feet at 8 seconds

Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  SE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: NNW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 





Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!




*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)


Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Potential Severe Weather for Tuesday
« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2014, 11:51:16 AM »
Widespread rain will begin to move into the area over the next few hours. There is a chance of thunderstorms with some being strong to severe. Storms will be capable of heavy rains, dangerous lightning, damaging winds, hail and tornadoes.

Flash Flood Watches have been issued for Northeastern NJ Counties.

Be alert to changing conditions!






Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: Wednesday Update
« Reply #2 on: August 13, 2014, 11:35:12 AM »
Everyone ok? Anyone get flooded? Storms yesterday were far from severe, however many places saw 3+ inches of rain and an area from Cumberland County northeast through Northeaster Ocean County/Southeastern Monmouth County received 5-9 inches of rain, with many cases of flash flooding throughout the state and neighboring areas. Coastal flooding and beach erosion occurred in some areas as well. I am seeing reports of Ocean County beaches with erosion up to 6-7 high and more than halfway up some beaches!

Skies are cloudy with some sun mixed in. Skies will continue to clear. There still remains a low chance of isolated or scattered showers this morning/afternoon. Tonight will be clear and dry and it will remain dry over the next few days. Water Conditions are still Cautious with Small Craft Advisories for winds to 15 knots and gusts to 20-25 knots with seas 4-6 feet at 8 seconds. Tomorrow will see winds 10-15 knots with 20 knots possible and seas 3-4 feet at 8 seconds. Friday should see improving conditions back within the forecast range. Surf and beach conditions are Cautious to OK. Winds will be gusty to 25 knots today and 20 knots tomorrow with rougher surf in areas with wave heights 5-6 feet with a 4-5 foot swell at 8 seconds. Rip Current Risk is Moderate, however be extra cautious in and near the surf with the above normal wave heights. Thursday will see surf improving some, with wave heights 2-4 feet average with 3-5 feet mixed in and a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents. Be careful with areas of erosion as well, as these may be unstable. Hidden areas of erosion are possible as well in the surf and on the sandbars.

Temperatures will be in the 70's and 80's with 50's and 60's overnight with lower humidity through Friday. The weekend will be the same with lows in the 60's and low to moderate humidity.

Everything looks good for the weekend weather and water TT^.

Offline fluke - u

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Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: Aug 11-15, 2014
« Reply #3 on: August 13, 2014, 01:16:34 PM »
 t^ .. Thanks Matt, Got a couple more days to fish the Tournament  ..... chrz
I support our sponsors !
Success is getting what you want.
Happiness is wanting what you get.


Offline Pfishingruven

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Re: NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: Aug 11-15, 2014
« Reply #4 on: August 13, 2014, 01:23:01 PM »
t^ .. Thanks Matt, Got a couple more days to fish the Tournament  ..... chrz

Yes... msfsh

 

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