NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekly Edition: Oct 6-10, 2014

[Pfishingruven]

An okay start for Monday, shifting to rain chances and winds through Friday with water conditions poor to start, but possibly improving for the end of the week. Monday will be dry with rain chances developing overnight into Tuesday and continuing into Friday. Highs will be in the 60’s and 70’s with overnight lows in the 40’s to 60’s. Another weaker coastal low pressure system may/could affect the area for the end of the week. Water conditions will be poor through Wednesday and even into Thursday and Friday for some areas, mainly southern waters. Cautious to hazardous conditions are likely with Small Craft Advisories for all waters. Thursday will see improvements for most waters with less gusty winds and diminishing seas into Friday. Winds will peak at 25+ knots and seas 3-6 feet inshore and 4-8 feet offshore. Surf and beach conditions will be ok to good. Surf will be rougher and peak at 3-5 and 4-6 feet depending on location on Wednesday due to gusty 25+ knot winds. Rip Current Index will be Moderate to High and then Low by the end of the week. Water temperatures are cooler, with most waters in the low to upper 60’s. UV Index will be Low to Moderate at 2-5/15.

High pressure will move off the coast on Monday. A warm front will move northward through the area on Monday Night. A cold front will approach from the west, Tuesday, before moving through the area Tuesday Night and early Wednesday. High pressure will move in for Wednesday Night and Thursday before moving offshore Thursday Night. Low pressure will develop along a frontal boundary and potentially affect the area late in the week. The boundary may shift just south of the area during the weekend.

There is potential for another week coastal disturbance, low pressure system to form along the coast for the end of the week. This could affect end of the week and weekend forecasts. I know a good amount are watching the forecasts for Friday and Saturday. This is a watch and see, how the models trend and if anything develops. Right now, end of the week looks to improve into the weekend, with some gusty winds below 20 knots on Friday.

The weekend could have some rain chances on Saturday, but looks dry on Sunday. Highs will be in the 60’s with lows in the 40’s and 50’s. Water, surf and beach conditions look to improve by the end of the week and into the weekend provided the low pressure system does not develop or stay away from the area.

Have a great week, thanks for reading!

Monday
Sky:  Mostly sunny to sunny then increasing clouds becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance during the day, 0%-20% chance of showers (mainly across the north)
Temperatures
High:    Upper 60’s to low 70’s
Low:     Mid to upper 50’s inland, upper 50’s to low 60’s along the coast, Upper 40’s across northern areas and higher elevations
UV Index:  4-5/15 (Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:57am
Sunset: 6:32pm


Tuesday
Sky:  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0%-40% chance of showers during the day, 50%-70% chance of showers at night
Temperatures
High:   Upper 60’s to upper 70’s
Low:   Upper 50’s to low 60’s inland and along the coast, low 50’s across northern areas
UV Index:  2-4/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:58am
Sunset: 6:31pm


Wednesday
Sky:   Mostly sunny becoming mostly clear
Precipitation:  20%-30% chance of showers during the day, 0% to slight chance at night
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 70’s
Low:   Upper 40’s to low 50’s inland, mid 50’s and along the coast, Low 40’s across northern areas
UV Index:  4-5/15 (Moderate)
Sunrise: 6:59am
Sunset: 6:29pm
Full Moon: 6:52am


Thursday
Sky:  Sunny becoming partly to mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance during the day, 0%-30% chance of showers at night
Temperatures
High:   Low to upper 60’s
Low:   Low 50’s inland, mid 50’s along the coast, mid 40's across northern areas
UV Index:  4-5/15 (Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:00am
Sunset: 6:27pm


Friday
Sky:   Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  30%-50% chance of showers all day
Temperatures
High:   Upper 60’s to low 70’s inland and along the coast, low 60’s across the north
Low:   Low 50’s inland, mid to upper 50’s along the coast, mid 40’s across northern areas
UV Index:  2-4/15 (Low-Moderate)
Sunrise: 7:01am
Sunset: 6:26pm


Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  63°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:   S 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots this afternoon
Seas:    2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  S 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  S 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Tuesday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  S 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Wednesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  W 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  2 feet
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  W 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots diminishing to 5-10 knots after midnight
Seas:  1-2 feet, then 1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  3-5 feet
Thursday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots becoming N after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-3 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)

Sandy Hook Tides
                         



Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  63°F
Monday Morning
Winds: SSW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  E 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: S 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  SSE 5 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 16 to 21 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: WNW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: W 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: W 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  65°F
Monday Morning
Winds: S 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: S 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 15 to 21 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: W 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: WNW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: NW 3 to 4 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
Winds: NNW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  63°F
Monday
Wind:  S 11-13 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  S 11-13 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  S 14-16 knots with gusts to 22 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  S 13-16 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  SW 12-16 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  WNW 12 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  NW 9 knots becoming W in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  WSW 5-7 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  SSW 6-9 knots becoming WSW in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  WSW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides

Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  68°F
Monday Morning
Winds: SSW 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  E 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 16 to 21 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  3-5 feet
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 20 to 27 knots
Seas:  S 5 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet   
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: W 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  4-6 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: NW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: SSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 11 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WSW 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1-3 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides
   
Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  67°F
Monday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  SW 5 knots becoming S 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots late morning/afternoon
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Monday Night
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  S 15-20 knots diminishing to 10-15 knots late
Seas:  2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  S 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet
Surf:   1-3 feet
Tuesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  S 10-15 knots increasing to 15-20 knots after midnight
Seas:  2-4 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:   1-3 feet
Wednesday
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Wind:  W 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:   2-3 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Night
CAUTIOUS
Wind:  NE 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots
Seas:  2-4 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-3 feet
Thursday
Wind:  NW 10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday Night
Wind:  SW 10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1 foot
Friday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-2 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware River Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  68°F
Monday Morning
Winds: S 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  ENE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: S 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 9 seconds
Tuesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 16 to 21 knots
Seas:  SW 5 feet at 6 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 15 to 21 knots
Seas:  SW 5 feet at 6 seconds
Wednesday Morning
HAZARDOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 23 to 30 knots
Seas:  SW 8 feet at 7 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: WSW 17 to 23 knots
Seas:  SSW 7 feet at 7 seconds
Thursday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT AD VISORY
Winds: WNW 16 to 21 knots
Seas:  NW 4 feet at 5 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 11 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: WSW 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 11 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: WSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 11 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening with a chance that some of these storms are strong to severe. The main threat is heavy rains, dangerous lightning, gusty winds and tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially along the coast. Be alert to changing weather!

Be safe!

[Still Running]

So what do we have 50 nm to 100 nm Friday into Saturday? 

[Pfishingruven]

So what do we have 50 nm to 100 nm Friday into Saturday? 

Forecasts keep switching back and forth. Looked bad, then better, now right in the middle. Right now Friday winds to 15 knots increasing to 20 knots Saturday Afternoon. Seas 2-3 increasing 3-5 feet...NWS/NOAA going 2-4 feet then 4-7 feet on Saturday. I am waiting for the evening model runs and see where they go with this.

[Still Running]

Thanks Matt 

[Pfishingruven]

Here's the latest numbers. It has gone from bad to good, to somewhere in the middle. Friday will have winds to 20 knots and seas building 3-5 feet offshore with chances of rain. Saturday will see winds to 25 knots and seas 3-6 feet with chances of rain. This is all from pressure gradients as low pressure exits to the north-northeast and high pressure moves out into open waters. An exiting weak low may play into Saturday as well, enhancing those winds to the forecast marks and bringing seas up some.

Here are the forecasts from BW and NWS for Inshore and Offshore waters.

BW

MI

Friday 10/10
Morning
Light winds with a slight chop. Small long period swell.
Winds: NW 7 to 10 knots
Seas: ESE 1 feet at 11 seconds

Afternoon
Light and variable winds with smooth seas. Small long period swell.
Winds: W 5 to 6 knots
Seas: ESE 1 feet at 11 seconds

Saturday 10/11
Morning
Light winds with a slight chop. Small long period swell.
Winds: NE 9 to 12 knots
Seas: ESE 1 feet at 11 seconds

Afternoon
Breezy whitecapping conditions with moderate choppy seas. Small long period swell.
Winds: N 10 to 14 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 11 seconds

Chicken Canyon

Friday 10/10
Morning
Breezy whitecapping conditions with moderate choppy seas. Small long period swell.
Winds: WNW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 11 seconds

Afternoon
Light winds with a slight chop. Small long period swell.
Winds: WNW 8 to 10 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 11 seconds

Saturday 10/11
Morning
Breezy whitecapping conditions with moderate choppy seas. Small long period swell.
Winds: ENE 13 to 18 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 11 seconds

Afternoon
Breezy whitecapping conditions with moderate choppy seas. Small long period swell.
Winds: NNE 15 to 20 knots
Seas: ESE 4 feet at 11 seconds

Hudson Canyon

Friday 10/10
Morning
Breezy whitecapping conditions with moderate choppy seas. Small short period wind waves.
Winds: WNW 12 to 16 knots
Seas: WNW 4 feet at 5 seconds

Afternoon
Light winds with a slight chop. Small long period swell.
Winds: WNW 9 to 13 knots
Seas: ESE 3 feet at 11 seconds

Saturday 10/11
Morning
Breezy whitecapping conditions with moderate choppy seas. Small long period swell.
Winds: ENE 12 to 16 knots
Seas: ESE 2 feet at 11 seconds

Afternoon
Windy conditions with choppy seas. Small craft advisory. Small short period wind waves.
Winds: NE 16 to 22 knots
Seas: SSW 4 feet at 6 seconds

NWS/NOAA

Inshore MI-20nm

Fri W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.

Fri Night SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.

Sat N winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon...then becoming NE 5 to 10 kt in the evening...becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of rain... Then a chance of showers after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm

Offshore 20 nm and East

FRI
 W TO NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT...BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS
 1 TO 3 FT.

 FRI NIGHT
 S WINDS 5 TO 15 KT...BECOMING S TO SW 10 TO 20 KT
 LATE. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

 SAT
 W TO SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT...BECOMING N AND DIMINISHING TO
 10 TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.

 SAT NIGHT
 NE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

[Still Running]

Looking better thanks Matt