NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook Weekend Edition: Oct 1-2, 2016

[Pfishingruven]

 
               
The rain continues with cautious water conditions. Stalled out low pressure systems are responsible for the rain, winds, and minor coastal flooding. It is almost like a Nor’Easter sitting off the coast. However, these systems will play a big part in the track of Matthew and look to protect the majority of the East Coast. Rains and even thunderstorms are possible on Saturday with showers late on Saturday and into Sunday. Heavy rain is still possible on Saturday. Highs will be in the 60’s and 70’s with overnight lows in the 50’s and 60’s. Humidity will be moderate. This is much needed rain and might just put a dent in any potential droughts. Water conditions look to be cautious with gusty winds on Saturday and seas to 10 feet possible. Sunday will have calmer winds, but seas will push 4-5 feet. This is not from the hurricane, but just from low pressure systems that stalled in the Mid Atlantic. BW is much more generous with lower winds and seas. I am tending to go with the NWS on this one, with cautious conditions on the ocean for the entire weekend. Rivers and bays may be good on later Saturday and Sunday, though. Small Craft Advisories are a given for Saturday. Surf and beach conditions will be cautious with surf heights to 8 feet on Saturday. Water temperatures are in the 60’s and some low 70’s. UV Index will be Low to High at 1-6/15.

High pressure to our north will slowly move eastward through Sunday. Persistent low pressure to the west will weaken and move toward the Great Lakes and then toward New England by Monday, bringing its associated cold front through the area.  High
pressure then builds back to the north for Tuesday into Thursday with northeast flow returning once again.

Hurricane Matthew is in the Caribbean and is a major Category 5 Hurricane with 160 mph winds and and central pressure of 941 mb. This is a beast of a hurricane. This is the invest I noted for the week to be watching. It should stay well off the coast, only affecting water conditions, but this is something that needs to be watched. Any changes with this track that will affect the coast and I will update. This system is going to pound Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. This will be a storm for the record books, for sure.
Next week looks drier with 70’s, but water conditions are not looking good most of the week. With the possibility of a tropical system coming into play, let’s call next week an unknown still.

Have a great weekend and thanks for reading!

Saturday
Sky:  Cloudy
Precipitation:  60% - 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day, 30% - 50% chance of showers at night, Fog
Temperatures
High:     Low 60’s to low 70’s
Low:     Mid 50’s to upper 60’s
UV Index:  1-3/15 (Low)
Sunrise: 6:53am
Sunset: 6:39pm


Sunday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  20% - 50% chance of showers all day
Temperatures
High:     Low to upper 70’s
Low:     Mid 50’s to low 60’s
UV Index:  2-6/15 (Low - High)
Sunrise: 6:54am
Sunset: 6:38pm


Saturday Surface Analysis



Sunday Surface Analysis



Precipitation Totals




Severe Weather Risks for Saturday



Atlantic Tropics





Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  67°F
Saturday
Winds:    NE 5-10 knots
Seas:     1 foot, Patchy fog, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  4-7 feet
Saturday Night
Winds:    NE 5-10 knots
Seas:     1 foot or less, Patchy fog
Surf (Ocean):  4-7 feet
Sunday
Wind:    E 5-10 knots
Seas:     1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Sunday Night
Wind:     SW 5-10 knots
Seas:     1 foot or less, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet

Sandy Hook (Bay) Tides

Sandy Hook Tides




Sandy Hook to Fire Island Inlet, NY
Water Temperature:  67°F
Saturday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds:    ENE 20 to 27 knots
Seas:    ESE 6 feet at 8 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  4-7 feet
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds:    ENE 15 to 20 knots
Seas:    ESE 5 feet at 8 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  4-7 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds:    ENE 11 to 15 knots
Seas:    ESE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds:    E 11 to 15 knots
Seas:    ESE 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf (Ocean):  2-4 feet

Coney Island, NY Tides

Coney Island Tides




Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  68°F
Saturday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds:    ENE 18 to 24 knots
Seas:    E 7 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:    4-8 feet
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds:    ENE 15 to 21 knots
Seas:    E 6 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:     4-8 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds:    E 11 to 14 knots
Seas:    E 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:     3-5 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds:    E 11 to 15 knots
Seas:    E 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:     3-5 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay at Island Beach State Park
Water Temperature:
Saturday
CAUTIOUS
Wind:     ENE 13-17 knots with gusts to 25 knots
Seas:     2 feet
Surf:     1 foot
Saturday Night
Wind:     E 9 knots
Seas:     1-2 feet
Surf:     1 foot
Sunday
Wind:     E 9 knots
Seas:     1 foot
Surf:     0-1 feet
Sunday Night
Wind:     ENE 6 knots becoming NNE after midnight
Seas:     1 foot
Surf:     0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides
   
Barnegat Bay Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  68°F
Saturday Morning
Winds:    ENE 13 to 17 knots
Seas:    E 5 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:     3-5 feet
Saturday Afternoon
Winds:    ESE 10 to 13 knots
Seas:    E 4 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:     3-5 feet
Sunday Morning
Winds:    NNW 2 to 3 knots
Seas:    E 3 feet at 8 seconds
Surf:     2-4 feet
Sunday Afternoon
Winds:    SSE 3 to 4 knots
Seas:    SE 3 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:     2-4 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides

Cape May Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  69°F
Saturday
Wind:     E 10-15 knots
Seas:     2-3 feet, Fog, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:     1-2 feet
Saturday Night
Wind:     SE 5-10 knots becoming SW after midnight
Seas:     1-2 feet, Fog, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:     1 foot
Sunday
Wind:     N 5 knots becoming NE late in the morning, then S in the afternoon
Seas:     1-2 feet
Surf:     1 foot
Sunday Night
Wind:     W 5-10 knots becoming NW after midnight
Seas:     1-2 feet
Surf:     1 foot

Delaware Bay (Ship John Shoal) Tides

Delaware Bay Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  67°F - 70°F
Saturday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds:    ENE 16 to 22 knots
Seas:    E 8 feet at 8 seconds
Saturday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds:    ENE 11 to 15 knots
Seas:    E 6 feet at 8 seconds
Sunday Morning
Winds:    ENE 10 to 14 knots
Seas:    E 4 feet at 7 seconds
Sunday Afternoon
Winds:    ENE 11 to 15 knots
Seas:    ESE 4 feet at 10 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
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*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm. Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out!

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)